Questions now from the party spokespeople. The Conservative spokesperson, Paul Davies. 

Diolch, Llywydd. Minister, the new variant of COVID-19 has caused understandable worry, particularly given that we don't know yet how virulent the variant is, and therefore we can't accurately ascertain the threat of the virus to Wales. Nevertheless, the news of a new variant will cause some real worry for Welsh businesses, and so it's crucial that there is an ongoing dialogue with the Welsh Government about the impact of the new variant on how we live and work so that businesses are consulted on any new measures or any changes to existing measures and strategies. Now, I listened very carefully to the answer you gave my colleague the Member for the Vale of Clwyd, but, Minister, at this stage, can you tell us how is the new variant affecting the Welsh Government's economic recovery plans? And can you tell us whether the Welsh Government intends to announce any new measures targeted at businesses in Wales before Christmas? 

Thank you for the question. The difficulty with the omicron variant is that we don't have a fully formed picture of its overall impact. But we are genuinely concerned that it appears to spread even more rapidly than the delta variant. You'll have heard Conservative Ministers in the UK Government talk about that as well, but about the fact that collectively within the UK we don't understand the three main points of difficulty. On the first, we have some impacts, but we don't understand how much more rapidly than delta it appears to spread, but it appears to spread more rapidly; the second is whether it actually causes more harm than the delta variant, and I'll come back to that; and the third is whether it can escape the vaccine.

Now, if you put it this way: we have about 2,000-odd people every day in Wales who test positive for COVID—it's almost all delta—and we know that leads to a certain number of people coming to harm, going to hospital. Unfortunately, we know that a certain number of people won't survive. If omicron has the same impact in those, say, 2,000 people, then you'd say it's about what the scientists call the same sort of pathogenic capability. The problem is, if omicron spreads more rapidly, we'll see more people come in to our health and care system much more quickly, and that does have the real potential to cause a very serious impact, even if it doesn't actually escape the vaccine response. So, we're dealing with a good deal of uncertainty at present.

Our scientists across the UK expect to be able to provide politicians with some more information within the next two to three weeks to have an understanding of those extra factors. So, we're dealing with a point of real uncertainty at what is the most inconvenient time for many businesses, in the last few weeks in the run-up to Christmas. So, we don't plan to introduce more restrictions before Christmas, but, when we get more information on the omicron variant—not just what it entails and what it means, but also how widespread it already is within the UK. And we're not having a fully formed picture; of course, we have confirmed and probable cases, but, because a decision was made to no longer have PCR testing for international entrants about six weeks or so ago, that means we haven't been able to sequence in advance. So, it's likely that there is more omicron in the country and across the UK than we understand at present. Once we get a fuller picture of where it is and its particular impact, then not just this Government for Wales but, actually, across the UK, will need to make choices, and that's why the First Minister wrote jointly with the First Minister of Scotland to the UK Government to be clear that, if measures are needing to be taken, then we want to have the support of the UK Treasury in doing so if that impact is felt first in another part of the union that isn't England. We've seen that in the past, and I believe that a proper and sensible response to that would show the UK acting as it should do and its best to make sure that the risks and opportunities are shared equally with this latest twist in the ongoing tale of this pandemic. 

Well, Minister, the point I'm making is that it's crucial that, as more information comes out about this virus, the Welsh Government communicates clearly with Welsh businesses and sets out its intentions, and therefore I look forward to hearing more from you in the coming few weeks. Now, over the past few weeks, the Welsh Government has published several economic statements and allocated substantial funding, and it's important for us to better understand whether this new variant has any impact on the Welsh Government's plans going forward. For example, last week the Government announced a £45 million package of funding that aims to help small businesses across Wales to grow, and will hopefully support thousands of people across Wales to train to work in key sectors. That funding is vital in addressing skills gaps and upskilling the workforce. Indeed, you yourself told the Economy, Trade, and Rural Affairs Committee that every single sector of business that you talk to—small, medium or large—there's always a key skills challenge. Therefore, can you tell us more about this particular funding stream and how it'll be allocated across local authorities in Wales? And can you tell us how confident you are that this funding will be enough not only to safeguard 4,000 jobs, but also to help create 2,000 new jobs in Wales, as you outlined last week? 

Yes. So, on the additional funding that I was pleased to announce— and I'm particularly pleased to have announced that we'll be delivering that in partnership with local authorities, who will deliver the funding and they'll be able to make choices within the local authority area, so it will cover every single local authority in the country. And the figures that we provided on the number of new jobs we think it will create, as well as those safeguarded, come from our experience of working alongside local authorities and businesses during the pandemic. This, in particular, we think will be of real advantage to small and medium-sized businesses as well.

So, that's the basis on which we have allocated funding and why we have come up with figures about the impact we think it'll have, and I was very pleased to visit a business in the Caerphilly county borough, I believe in the Islwyn constituency, on the launch of the fund, and they've already indicated about the support they've had from previous rounds of support from the Welsh Government, and what that's allowed them to do in diversifying their business and actually managing to grow, and that growth is from local employment—so, decent jobs and the whole thing of, as we say in the Welsh Government, better jobs closer to home. It's a good example of that funding delivering on that. There's been a real appetite from businesses to do that. Part of the challenge has been unlocking business investment themselves. So, the fund allows people to apply for a grant, then to invest some themselves as well. It's a genuine example of 'something for something' that we think has every prospect of being successful. 

On your broader point about business communication regarding the path through the pandemic, I have regular conversations with a variety of different sectors within the economy. I talk with trade unions and I talk with business organisations. I'm having another round of conversations with business groups later this week. So, there is regular communication and business groups themselves say that they've never had a closer or better relationship with the Welsh Government. The necessity of the pandemic has driven some of that, but I actually think there's better understanding and a better sharing of information, trust and confidence.

So, I hope that gives the Member some of the assurance, which I think is reasonable for him to ask for, that there are both regular conversations going on between myself, my officials and business groups, and that those are in a good place to be able to do what we need to do, but I really do hope we don't need to introduce further restrictions. But myself and other Ministers in the Government will make the right choices to keep the people of Wales safe, and to do what we can to save livelihoods at the same time.

Well, I'm very pleased to hear, Minister, that you're having ongoing discussions with the business community, and I hope that will continue over the next few weeks in the run-up to Christmas. Now, in the same ministerial scrutiny session with the Economy, Trade, and Rural Affairs Committee, you also said that the pandemic recovery in business terms has certainly not been complete yet, but it's a matter of discussions between yourself and the finance Minister about the sort of support the Welsh Government will be able to provide businesses in the future.

Now, as you'll be aware, next Saturday is Small Business Saturday, and I hope, Minister, you'll be out sampling and enjoying everything our small businesses have to offer. Wales's small businesses are still in a precarious position, and the new variant could threaten that, as it's winter and we know that COVID-19 thrives in indoor environments. Now, in Scotland, a £25 million fund for ventilation of businesses was established and organisations like the Federation of Small Businesses have called on the Welsh Government to consider doing the same here in Wales. So, Minister, ahead of Small Business Saturday, can you give us an update on the discussions between yourself and the finance Minister in relation to business support, and in particular whether any decisions have been made regarding business rates? Secondly, can you tell us what short-term assistance the Welsh Government is offering to businesses to make their settings as safe as possible during the winter months, including a potential ventilation fund, as has been established in other parts of the United Kingdom?

Yes, I'll happily deal with those points. It will be of no surprise to you that I'm not going to preannounce the budget. The finance Minister and the First Minister would not be wonderfully happy if I attempted to preannounce parts of the budget that will be published at the end of the year, but I have heard, as indeed has the finance Minister, calls from a range of business organisations for further rate relief in the new year. We are, of course, in a place where in Wales we provided a much better rate of rate relief for a range of sectors compared to England, so we're already further ahead than those businesses having to work with the English levels of support, which have been reducing for some time now.

On the Scottish ventilation fund, we were interested in what they were doing, but we weren't convinced the fund as announced in Scotland would work for us here. I don't think that there was clarity in how it would be achieved and what would happen with the supply chain. What we have done now, though, with the £35 million fund that we've announced in tandem with local authorities, is that, actually, ventilation is the one of the purposes for which the fund can be accessed, because some businesses have already taken measures to improve ventilation within their premises, and I'm sure you've had contact from those who have done so. Others who haven't done so and want to further improve ventilation, that's one of the purposes for which they can apply for the fund that I have recently announced, and you've helped me highlight it earlier in questions today.

More broadly on your point on small businesses, I hope that there'll be an outbreak of agreement across the Chamber later this afternoon in the debate on small businesses—the short 30-minute debate that your group has tabled. I certainly do support small businesses within my own constituency and more generally, and I look forward to people right across the different politics of the Chamber doing so and highlighting within their regions and constituencies small businesses that we still want people to support. People did support small businesses at the height of the pandemic, when people had to shop local, and I hope that people will still choose to shop local and support your local high street and support your local small business.

Plaid Cymru spokesperson, Luke Fletcher.

Diolch, Llywydd. Business Wales currently has skills and training programmes over three areas: recruitment and staffing, workplace skills, and leadership. How does Business Wales choose which courses to offer, and are there any plans to introduce more courses to help boost businesses in Wales?

That would be a matter for discussion with business sectors themselves, about what courses they would offer directly and what our more broad offer is on the skills and training agenda. I'm interested in the future of work and young people coming into the world of work for the first time and are looking to move on. That's why, of course, we've launched the young person's guarantee. The young person's guarantee, of course, straddles apprenticeships, which aren't just for young people. It's also why the recent announcement on personal learning accounts is about investing in the current workforce, and it's why I'm so concerned about the challenges over the reduction in the ability to run a proper and robust skills programme with the changes to the levelling-up fund. It's a real concern for us. But I look forward to further conversations with me and with my officials on the spread of help and support that we should provide and how that meets business need. That will, of course, be driven by lots of work done by our regional skills partnerships, and that really is a key factor in planning how we will support businesses now and in the future.

Thank you for that response, Minister.

And I'm glad he said that that's a question for businesses. As Paul Davies has already highlighted, Small Business Saturday is fast approaching, and, as part of the run-up to Small Business Saturday, many of us in this Chamber have visited our own local businesses. Part of that for me has been visiting businesses in my own region of South Wales West.

One consistent suggestion that has been fed back to me relates to some of the courses provided by Business Wales. For example, one business raised a lack of support relating to SEO training, search engine optimisation, whilst another raised a lack of courses relating to growing their businesses. From my own research, it appears as though Business Wales's main course that focuses on growth is the 2020 leadership programme. However, according to the Business Wales website, that course is only provided in east Wales to businesses that operate there or employees who reside there. Is there any monitoring of how effective the selection of courses provided is, and what is the reasoning as to why there appears to be a significant amount of programmes on the operational and practical side of business, but little on growth and innovation? Would the Minister consider implementing the 2020 Business Wales leadership programme across Wales to provide greater growth and innovation focused courses throughout Wales?

Yes, I am of course interested in the assessment of impact of each of the courses that we run and how they're rolled out in different parts of Wales to meet business need that's assessed there. I think on your broader point around the sorts of courses that are run and the provision to help businesses to grow, actually, this is a point that came up in conversation with the Member for Cynon Valley about the change in not just helping to support businesses to start, but actually what we've been doing in our business support to help businesses to grow. It's been a key factor under the previous leadership of Ken Skates and now it's being continued, and you'll see this in the small business fund that's going out with local authorities. This is about how we help businesses to survive and to grow as well.

So, it's both about funding and it is also about some of the support and skills, but a range of that is also about businesses themselves identifying what they need to do to grow. Not all of those ideas are held centrally within the Government. So, it is about the sort of partnership we have with businesses themselves, with regional skills partnerships who tell us what we need to then provide, and where that's directly provided—there won't always be direct provision from Business Wales. But I'd be more than happy to engage in a more in-depth conversation with the Member about the variety of different courses that we provide directly and how we do so.

I should say, though, that when it comes to small businesses, I regularly go to small businesses within my own constituency. You may notice that I've had a recent haircut, that was a small business in my constituency; I go to a local butcher, the local fruit shop, I could mention more and more and more, but I'm sure that we'll hear lots of that praise of people's local businesses later on this afternoon as well, by name.

Of course, I will also be highlighting a lot of the businesses that I've been frequenting locally in the debate later on, and of course I'll be sharing my secret on where I get my hair cut as well. [Laughter.] And of course I'm very glad that the Minister says that he's engaging with businesses. More often than not, a lot of the ideas that solve a lot of the issues these businesses have come up on the coalface, so I'm glad that conversation is happening.

If I could turn to trade and the Northern Ireland protocol, threats from the UK Government to trigger article 16 are not only concerning with respect to stability, peace and trade in Northern Ireland, but the triggering of article 16 would negatively impact Welsh trading relations with the EU. While Wales is trying to recover from the effects of years of austerity, Brexit and COVID-19, and of course we've already seen disruptions to trade at Holyhead, we cannot risk causing further disruption to the Welsh economy. Has the Minister had any clarification as to how the UK Government would plan to implement article 16, if they do so, and what the role of the devolved Governments would be in that process? Will we, for example, be able to raise concerns about the impact on Welsh trade and the Welsh economy, and what preparations, if any, have the Welsh Government made to cushion the blow to the Welsh economy in case article 16 is triggered?

Toward the start of November, in the Economy, Trade, and Rural Affairs Committee, I asked the Minister about the timeline for an assessment of the cumulative impacts of the market-access provisions for agriculture in the New Zealand and Australia free trade agreements, and was told that it depends on the information provided and whether the agreements in principle become finalised. Has the Minister had any more details from the UK Government and is he able to share those details with me today?

I'll deal with your second point first, and that is with regard to the free trade agreements around Australia and New Zealand. We do think that the agreements in principle may change when it comes to final text. You will have seen there has been lots of speculation in public about that as well. I can't provide you with an updated statement at this point in time because they're not concluded. Once they are concluded, I've already committed that the Welsh Government will share an assessment with Members and the wider public of our assessment of the direct impacts. Some of that, of course, is forecasting, because, for example, the significant increase in the quotas for agricultural produce that can be imported is a concern about what happens now but also in the future, over time, as there's a significant increase in the tariff-rate quotas—the quotas that are agreed—with those two countries, and the bar that that sets the negotiations with other countries and other trading partnerships.

On article 16, we are genuinely concerned about what may happen if article 16 is triggered, but equally, we're concerned about the current period of time and the uncertainty that the diplomacy through headlines and speeches is causing in the current trading relationships. Whilst we were still within the European Union, I think there were a dozen direct ferry crossings from the island of Ireland to continental Europe, and that's now increased to over 40, so there's already been a significant increase in trade that is avoiding Welsh ports and going directly to mainland Europe. That affects trade and it affects jobs and we've seen a significant reduction in trade through our ports already. If article 16 is triggered, then it is almost certain that there will be retaliatory measures. We can't tell you what the impact of those will be, because we don't know what those measures would be. We've already raised our concerns about what it would do to Welsh jobs and businesses if article 16 were triggered, but we're not in a position where the UK Government are engaging us directly in those conversations. I've made clear that I think the Welsh Government should be part of those conversations because of the direct impact on arrangements with the whole island of Ireland—the Republic and Northern Ireland—and what it does to trade within Wales. The UK Government have not engaged us in that.

I'm hopeful that, given what appears to be a constructive offer from the European Union to change a range of requirements on goods checking, there can be a constructive and agreed way forward that does not cause the significant disruption and undoubted economic harm that would be caused if article 16 were triggered. But I'm not in a position to give the Member any kind of guarantees about that; as the Member knows, I'm not in control of those negotiations. But whatever does happen, the Welsh Government will continue to stay engaged and make clear the case for Welsh jobs and businesses and, of course, I'll continue to report back to the Senedd and the relevant subject committees.