COVID-19 Transmission Levels

Part of 2. Questions to the Minister for Health and Social Services – in the Senedd at 2:55 pm on 19 January 2022.

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Photo of Baroness Mair Eluned Morgan Baroness Mair Eluned Morgan Labour 2:55, 19 January 2022

Thanks very much, Gareth. I almost encouraged you, didn't I, yesterday, to ask me this question, so I'm very pleased that you have asked me this question, because it gives me an opportunity to say that, actually, the data we've had so far actually suggests that those restrictions were helpful. We've certainly seen a difference in terms of hospitalisation. We're just waiting for that data to be processed. England certainly had higher rates in terms of hospitalisation compared to all of the other three nations that introduced restrictions. It's still early days, so we'll wait for that final data to be published, hopefully by the end of this week.

I think, also, this is about counting, Gareth. So, the way we count cases is different in all four nations. For example, England doesn't count reinfections, so that could make a considerable difference. Wales does count reinfections if they are 42 days apart. That makes a big difference to the numbers. Our policy on testing changed, of course, so that may have made a difference. Also, I think what you'll find is that people modified their behaviour in England when they heard the chief medical officer, because, obviously, your Prime Minister was not in a position to tell anyone to do anything because of all the parties he'd been holding. So, what happened is that people listened to the chief medical officer in England and they curbed their behaviour. What they didn't have in England was the kind of economic support that we were able to give to our businesses because of the protections that we put in place. I'm pleased to say that the indications so far are that it was helpful to put those restrictions in place, but, obviously, we will need to wait for a few more days just to be absolutely confident that that is the case.

Certainly, the statistics I've seen so far are that we had about 170,000 people with COVID. If we were in the same position as England, we'd have had 40,000 extra people with COVID, and if we were in London, we'd have seen almost 70,000 people additional having COVID. That would be the whole of the millennium stadium being filled additionally on top of the numbers that we had. So, those are some of the early calculations, but, obviously, we wait for that data to be comprehensive.