Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:28 pm on 6 July 2022.
Diolch, Llywydd. One hundred billion pounds a year—that's how much the Financial Times estimates that not being a part of the single market and customs union has cost the UK. On top of that, £40 billion less revenue to the Treasury a year and the UK lagging behind the rest of the G7 in pandemic recovery. That's where we're at. Not being part of the single market is undeniably making us here in Wales worse off. It's stunted our economy and limited economic growth, as well as worsening the current cost-of-living crisis. Not being part of the single market will make recovering from the pandemic and getting wages to rise sustainably during the cost-of-living crisis massively more difficult.
A report from the Resolution Foundation and the London School of Economics found that labour productivity is expected to be reduced by 1.3 per cent by 2030, because of the decline in the openness of the British economy after Brexit. This is the equivalent to losing a quarter of the efficiency gains over the past decade. It's massively damaged the competitiveness of UK exports, which we know is particularly affecting our farming communities here in Wales, with UK exports to the EU expected to be 38 per cent lower by 2030 than they would have been if we were inside the single market, with a further 16 per cent decline due to forgone further integration with the EU over that period.
Boris Johnson promised us in October that Brexit would help create a high-wage, high-productivity economy, yet only recently he has urged workers not to ask for bigger pay rises to prevent a wage-price spiral driving inflation higher. During the referendum, he also promised that leaving the EU would not mean leaving the single market. This only reveals more of his many lies. Moreover, the Trades Union Congress has warned that post-Brexit trade deals are failing to guarantee workers' rights and employee protections.
We know that the cost-of-living crisis and the pandemic hit our most vulnerable and poorest communities here in Wales the hardest, and remaining outside of the single market is making this worse. It's estimated that higher import costs are costing British workers nearly £500 a year, which is an enormously steep figure for those families already struggling in poverty.
The Guardian—and I don't often quote The Guardian—recently reported about how Brexit is affecting schoolchildren, with a rising amount of pupils now unable to pay for school meals following increased food costs and shortages. Ninety per cent of companies providing school meals in England and Wales have said that they face food shortages as a result of supply-chain problems, while average costs have increased by 20 per cent since April 2020.
The impact of remaining outside the single market is really tangible and affecting people in their everyday lives, which is why we are calling for support for this motion today. Now, I noted the First Minister's response to Adam Price yesterday in First Minister's questions—'magical thinking'. I have to say I don't share the First Minister's views. It's certainly not magical thinking for Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway—three non-EU countries that are all members of the single market. Nor is it magical thinking for Northern Ireland, which is currently a part of the non-EU UK yet in the single market, with the backing of most parties in the Northern Ireland Assembly.
If the criticism of 'magical thinking' was listened to every time, then there would be a lot of things that we hold dear that wouldn't exist today. But that's what we do as elected Members: we identify a problem, we think of a solution and we build a case. That's Plaid Cymru's aim today, and that's what we'll be doing.