The following amendment has been selected: amendment 1 in the name of Lesley Griffiths.

Item 10 is next, and that's the Plaid Cymru debate on rejoining the single market. And I call on Luke Fletcher to move the motion. 

Motion NDM8048 Siân Gwenllian

To propose that the Senedd:

Believes that the United Kingdom should rejoin the single market.

Motion moved.

Diolch, Llywydd. One hundred billion pounds a year—that's how much the Financial Times estimates that not being a part of the single market and customs union has cost the UK. On top of that, £40 billion less revenue to the Treasury a year and the UK lagging behind the rest of the G7 in pandemic recovery. That's where we're at. Not being part of the single market is undeniably making us here in Wales worse off. It's stunted our economy and limited economic growth, as well as worsening the current cost-of-living crisis. Not being part of the single market will make recovering from the pandemic and getting wages to rise sustainably during the cost-of-living crisis massively more difficult. 

A report from the Resolution Foundation and the London School of Economics found that labour productivity is expected to be reduced by 1.3 per cent by 2030, because of the decline in the openness of the British economy after Brexit. This is the equivalent to losing a quarter of the efficiency gains over the past decade. It's massively damaged the competitiveness of UK exports, which we know is particularly affecting our farming communities here in Wales, with UK exports to the EU expected to be 38 per cent lower by 2030 than they would have been if we were inside the single market, with a further 16 per cent decline due to forgone further integration with the EU over that period. 

Boris Johnson promised us in October that Brexit would help create a high-wage, high-productivity economy, yet only recently he has urged workers not to ask for bigger pay rises to prevent a wage-price spiral driving inflation higher. During the referendum, he also promised that leaving the EU would not mean leaving the single market. This only reveals more of his many lies. Moreover, the Trades Union Congress has warned that post-Brexit trade deals are failing to guarantee workers' rights and employee protections.

We know that the cost-of-living crisis and the pandemic hit our most vulnerable and poorest communities here in Wales the hardest, and remaining outside of the single market is making this worse. It's estimated that higher import costs are costing British workers nearly £500 a year, which is an enormously steep figure for those families already struggling in poverty. 

The Guardian—and I don't often quote The Guardian—recently reported about how Brexit is affecting schoolchildren, with a rising amount of pupils now unable to pay for school meals following increased food costs and shortages. Ninety per cent of companies providing school meals in England and Wales have said that they face food shortages as a result of supply-chain problems, while average costs have increased by 20 per cent since April 2020.

The impact of remaining outside the single market is really tangible and affecting people in their everyday lives, which is why we are calling for support for this motion today. Now, I noted the First Minister's response to Adam Price yesterday in First Minister's questions—'magical thinking'. I have to say I don't share the First Minister's views. It's certainly not magical thinking for Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway—three non-EU countries that are all members of the single market. Nor is it magical thinking for Northern Ireland, which is currently a part of the non-EU UK yet in the single market, with the backing of most parties in the Northern Ireland Assembly.

If the criticism of 'magical thinking' was listened to every time, then there would be a lot of things that we hold dear that wouldn't exist today. But that's what we do as elected Members: we identify a problem, we think of a solution and we build a case. That's Plaid Cymru's aim today, and that's what we'll be doing. 

I have selected the amendment to the motion, and I call on the Minister for Economy to move amendment 1 formally.

Amendment 1—Lesley Griffiths

Delete all and replace with:

To propose that the Senedd:

Believes that the UK’s ambition should be to have the closest possible, frictionless trade with the EU.

Amendment 1 moved.

Formally, Llywydd.

Diolch. James Evans.

Diolch, Llywydd, and I'm pleased to contribute to this debate this afternoon. I'm sure it will come as no shock to Members in this Chamber that those of us who sit on this side will not be supporting the motion this afternoon. Of course, I'm not surprised to see that Plaid Cymru has taken the opportunity to raise yet again its political obsession with the European Union. It's a real—[Interruption.] It's a real shame that you cannot accept the will of the people of Wales.

Let me just remind Members on those Plaid benches that the people of Wales voted to leave the European Union. I know you don't like that fact, but it just simply doesn't change it. People across the country voted to leave, and with that they want to see Wales flourish in a strong United Kingdom. Thanks to the UK Conservative Government, a strong Wales in a strong United Kingdom is what they're going to get.

The UK Government is working hard to make the most of the opportunities presented by our departure from the European Union. It's bringing forward the Brexit freedoms Bill, which will cut £1 billion of EU red tape and boost Welsh businesses by creating a new regulatory framework, tailor-made for the UK, that will capitalise on our new Brexit freedoms.

Let us not forget that the UK Government has now struck free trade deals with over 70 countries, collectively worth over £808 billion—deals that make it easier for British businesses to export their goods. These include deals with Japan, Australia and New Zealand—deals that pave the way for our entry into the £9 trillion Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

There has also been progress in creating new free ports across the UK, cutting regulation and supporting innovation. Businesses operating from free ports will benefit from tax relief and have a simplified customs and planning system, helping them to grow and create jobs. We need to crack on and grasp the free port opportunities here in Wales.

Members will be aware that collaboration between the UK and Welsh Governments to establish a Welsh free port is already under way. We need to pick up the pace on this to ensure that we don't lose out on investment. Once a Welsh free port has been established, it will be able to attract new businesses, jobs and investment, as well as growing the Welsh economy.

In addition to free trade agreements and free ports, we also have the UK and EU trade and co-operation agreement, something that people in this Chamber said we'd never be able to do. It's a zero-tariff, zero-quota trade agreement that covers areas such as—

Will the Member take an intervention?

I'll just make this point and then I'll take it. Digital trade, intellectual property, public procurement, aviation, road transport, energy, fisheries, social security, law enforcement, judicial co-operation and more. And Mabon, I will take your intervention.

Do you think the trade agreement with New Zealand and Australia will be beneficial to our rural communities and farmers?

I think there's a great opportunity for our businesses right across the country. Yes, there are issues that need to be ironed out, and that is what the UK Conservative Government are planning to do. If we listened to the nationalists and socialists in here, we would become an insular country with no international presence whatsoever. A lot of important work has already been done to establish a strong co-operation agreement, which is underpinned by provisions ensuring a level playing field and respect for fundamental rights.

There is already a strong partnership agreement in place in terms of trade agreements between the UK and the EU, so there is no need to rejoin the single market. Rejoining the single market is not something that any businesses that I speak to are calling for. Even the Labour Party and the Welsh Government have clearly just smelled the coffee and—

You're going to have to wind up now, because I've been very generous with time already.

Even Labour don't even want to join the single market any more. So, I say to the Plaid Cymru Members today: wakey, wakey—Brexit is done. Wales voted to leave. 

Okay. Okay, I think—

We have now left the European Union, the customs union and the single market, so get over it—[Inaudible.]

Yes, okay. That's it. Cefin Campbell.

Well, thank you very much, Llywydd. I want to start by making one thing clear: unlike the virtual life of James Evans, leaving the single market has been a complete disaster for Wales and for all the countries of the United Kingdom. All of the promises made by the Brexiteers have been nothing more than a fraud, and the effect of this on our communities has been hugely detrimental.

Let us consider the reality of leaving the single market: a mountain of bureaucracy for our businesses to export goods, the rising cost of imports, problems with VAT payments, the pound being devalued, our farmers facing checks at the border with Europe as they sell their products, while food entering these countries can arrive unhindered.

And now that we've left the common agricultural policy, the Tories in Westminster have cut £137 million this year and £106 million next year from the Welsh agricultural budget. So, that's the great Brexit dividend for our farmers. Yet Brexit was supposed to mean new and exciting opportunities for our agriculture and fishing sectors. Unfortunately, the opposite is true. It was all rhetoric based on dishonesty.

As we've already heard, but it's worth mentioning again, as our manufacturing and small business sectors face endless bureaucratic challenges, it's no wonder that business exports to the EU by small companies are expected to be 38 per cent lower by 2030. Next year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development calculates that the UK will record the lowest growth in the G20, with the exception of Russia. The Office for Budget Responsibility says Brexit will cut UK GDP by 4 per cent over the coming years; this equates to about £100 billion in lost outputs, and £40 billion less revenue to the Treasury. The Centre for European Reform said that, by the end of last year, the UK economy was 5 per cent or £31 billion smaller because of Brexit. Now, I heard earlier on Mark Isherwood desperately trying to list the advantages of leaving, but this is the reality, reported by not Mickey Mouse organisations, but highly respected think tanks. The Brexiteers promised there would be no downside to leaving the EU and the single market, only sunlit uplands. How they lied to us; how they deceived so many people in so short a time.

As we look around us, what we see is a cost-of-living crisis—

Will you take an intervention from Joyce Watson, Cefin Campbell?

From whom?

Joyce Watson.

Yes, of course. 

Diolch, Cefin. Whilst I would love to rejoin the single market—I’d do it tomorrow, I’d go back to the European Union tomorrow and I’m sure that other people would—and I agree with everything that you’ve said, don’t you accept that, at the moment, we cannot just automatically go back into the single market? And what we actually need to do is make a better condition for those people in the current situation that we find ourselves and improve that in the first place.

Well, Joyce, Brexit has been a decidedly detrimental factor. We cannot just allow this to happen; we have to set ourselves a goal to make things better, and our ambition is to rejoin the European Union and certainly the single market, and, as we’ve already heard from Luke Fletcher, other countries are doing this and it’s perfectly possible for us to do it as well. So, let’s not lower the bar, but look ambitiously to rejoining.

So, if I can just finish off, Llywydd.

I won't be long. What we see around us is a cost-of-living crisis, the cost of fuel and food increasing, inflation at its highest level for 40 years, and some sectors unable to recruit workers—and there are a number of them here; I won't list them all.

In the view of Plaid Cymru, rejoining the single market is the only sensible way of responding to these acute problems that have been caused by Brexit. Yes, 2016 was an act of serious self-harm, but it is possible to negotiate a way to rejoin, and we need to do that urgently for the benefit of our communities here in Wales and across the United Kingdom.

Well, where on earth do we start with this one? Let’s make no mistake at all about what today’s Plaid debate is about: it has nothing to do with keeping us in the single market; it has everything to do with Plaid Cymru trying to keep us in the European Union against our will. It’s been six years, but the so-called Party of Wales can’t accept that the people of Wales voted to leave the European Union. If they bothered to listen to the people of Wales, they’d find out that not only did a poll discover that Wales is the most pro-unionist nation of UK, they’d also find out that 52.5 per cent of people in Wales voted to leave the European Union, higher than the UK average. Plaid Cymru don’t like to listen to what the people of Wales have to say; they like to talk at them. And perhaps it explains why Wales rejects Plaid Cymru time and time again at the ballot box, and, if you don’t believe me that this is what this is about, let’s look at what Plaid Cymru themselves have to say. The leader of Plaid Cymru was quoted in 2018 as saying, ‘Brexit must be stopped.’ Their European manifesto in 2019 said, and I quote:

‘That is why we're appealing for support from across the political spectrum: to secure a People's Vote, to make Wales matter, and ultimately to maintain Wales' membership of the EU.’

Isn’t it ironic, Llywydd, that they want the people of Wales to vote again on an issue that has been consistently backed by the Welsh public but are running scared of the idea of giving the people of Wales a say on more politicians in this place? But where I will give Plaid Cymru credit is that at least they are consistent in their ignorance towards the views of the people of Wales.

The Labour Party, as usual, are all over the place: just three short weeks ago, the First Minister spoke up the merits of the single market, then, yesterday in First Minister’s questions, he tried his level best to defend his Westminster party leader’s position by dismissing membership of the single market as unrealistic, and  Keir Starmer's new Brexit policy, whatever it was, was dismissed by Alun Davies, wherever he is, as a policy that doesn’t have credibility at all. Who knows what the Labour Party thinks about Brexit? It truly is anybody’s guess. That’s why we as the Welsh Conservatives are, as usual—the true party of Wales—standing up and defending the interests of the people of Wales, putting our faith in the fact that it is them that know best. We're also the party that defends their vote and their voice against the forces that try to ignore it. The people of Wales don't want to rejoin the single market, they don't want to rejoin the European Union, what they do want is a political class that listens to what they have to say, rather than treat them as though they don't know what they're talking about. So, that's why I urge all Members to show proper respect to the people that we serve and represent and reject this motion today.

Well, stop the press, the Liberal Democrats are in favour of rejoining both the single market and the customs union, and rejoining the European Union, at some point in the future. I have to say, it is, of course, a little bit disappointing that Labour support for the single market seems to have been abandoned, and I am, I'll say, very confused by their current situation, which seems to change quite significantly. But I just want to say a few things that I hope people will listen to with respect, because it does affect the people here in Wales.

The twin pressures of Brexit and the pandemic have created the perfect storm for those people who are really struggling with the cost of living. Prices have been rising since our departure from the single market, and it is inevitable that this will continue due to the barriers to trading with our European partners. Wales was dependant for a huge amount of its trade on the European Union, and our exclusion from the single market has resulted in a far more significant impact than in parts of England. I've heard from small businesses, including the Welsh FSB, who are really struggling with the bureaucracy—[Interruption.]

I think the chitchat of the backbenches of the Labour Party are—. I'm not pointing any fingers, unlike you, Hefin David. [Laughter.] If we can have a bit of quiet to listen to Jane Dodds.

Diolch yn fawr iawn, Llywydd. I've heard from small businesses, including the Welsh FSB, who are really struggling with the bureaucracy, the red tape, the additional financial burden caused by the Conservative's deal. Ultimately, it is the responsibility of Government to ensure that its citizens are well looked after, and we can only truly address the cost-of-living crisis by regaining access to the single market. And, as you've heard, we need to consider the effect on the agricultural sector. Farmers have experienced a significant amount of uncertainty since—

Will you take an intervention?

Of course I will.

Thank you. Whilst I totally understand, comprehend and recognise the context that you've set out, would you explain how you would approach the fact that, like it or lump it, the referendum has been held?

Yes, thank you for that. We have rehearsed these arguments many, many times. And you're right to say that a very slight majority of people in Wales voted to leave the EU, but what they've seen is a raft of lies in terms of what they thought would be delivered to them and, therefore, we have to think differently. I will finish in a minute, if you'll allow me to move on.

I was just touching on farmers. It's really important that we recognise the effect on our farming businesses. And as somebody who represents a significant rural area, I've heard many times from farmers about the effect that leaving the EU has had on them. 

Just before I wrap up, I sadly won't be voting for the Welsh Government's amendment, because I am disappointed by Labour's lack of courage on this issue and, as I said, I'm very confused. So, my plea to Labour Members, who may also be confused, is that if they realise that single market membership is key to Welsh recovery from the pandemic and to growth in the future, then vote for this motion unamended. Diolch yn fawr iawn.

The Minister for Economy to contribute, Vaughan Gething.

Diolch, Llywydd. I'd like to begin by recognising that, despite the contributions made, there are significant areas of agreement between us, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats. We believe that a positive partnership with the EU, based on mutual trust and shared values, could and should reduce trade barriers, unlock investments and help to protect jobs. These shared aims are based on what we believe best serve the interests of the Welsh economy. 

So, when the Foreign Secretary tells us that she defends a Northern Ireland Bill, as a patriot, with the obvious implication that this carries, we can see, yet again, the depths that what is left of the UK Government will sink to. Now, while we differ on a motion that stirs strongly held views, and mine as much as any other, I'd hope that all Members here would recognise just how dangerous it is for UK Ministers to suggest that support for the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill is a test of anyone's patriotism. This divisive language should not be normalised in Government, and I have made directly clear to the UK Government that this tone is a real problem that must be urgently addressed.

Llywydd, we have attempted to broach shared objectives with a pragmatic approach since the 2016 referendum. That's why we published a joint White Paper with Plaid Cymru in 2017, when we were still within the European Union, setting out viable options for a post-referendum plan for Brexit. That included compromise positions that were both actionable and credible and, indeed, Theresa May moved ever closer to our position over time. But, Llywydd, we can't support Plaid Cymru's motion, because it does not meet those tests of being actionable and credible, given the context that we face today. The motion does not provide a workable solution: single market membership without the benefits of the customs union, which Luke Fletcher mentioned in his opening sentence, would not return the trading conditions that we've previously enjoyed. The motion also raises more questions than it answers. It doesn't suggest how this option would be advanced in a post-deal context or whether, frankly, the EU would entertain such a proposal. Llywydd, we can't endorse a position that is so specific on one element of the relationship whilst remaining silent on the wider questions, which do have major implications for our exporters in particular. 

Our aim is to secure the closest possible frictionless trade with the EU. To support that position, Welsh Government actions reflect the immediate needs of businesses that export from every part of Wales, as well as partners like our universities, who have been let down by the UK Government's failure to secure access to the Horizon programme. Our priority is to promote constructive steps designed to fix the Northern Ireland protocol, reduce those unnecessary trade barriers and to secure access to joint programmes and investment opportunities. We are actively urging the UK Government to change course on all these matters and prevent the immediate risks posed to our economy. We believe that a partnership approach with the EU, based on high standards and respect for international law, could secure major progress that is in Wales's interests. High standards matter, because we know that the engine that drives a successful, modern economy is not powered by a race to the bottom and a tax on workers' rights.

Given the ongoing collapse of the UK Government, it is perhaps no wonder that the Prime Minister is bringing forward new rules allowing agency workers to break strikes. He may soon be turning to them to fill Government posts deserted by an ever-increasing number of people who are withdrawing their labour, and I should add, Llywydd, without the benefit of a ballot before action.

But, Llywydd, given the realities that we face, it is important that the Welsh Government is a partner in the growing coalition of voices presenting the case for the UK Government to change course on its relationship with the EU. It's important because, as many of us agree, significant damage is being done to our economy and much of that could be prevented by the UK Government. That's why I've made clear to UK Minister that we do not accept their analysis of the UK's current trading performance. UK exports to the EU remain below pre-pandemic levels when we account for inflation. The growth of imports also means that the UK deficit on the balance of trade in goods was also at a record level in the first quarter of this year. And the Office for Budget Responsibility has observed that none of the new free trade agreements or regulatory changes announced will be sufficient to have a material impact on the hit to UK exports. So, we have never accepted the overblown rhetoric on new free trade deals, and we remain vehemently opposed to threats to deregulation.

The partnership approach that we advocate is a world away from the aggressive, rule-breaking unilateralism that defines the current UK Government's stance. Their course is both economically illiterate and morally bankrupt. The trade and co-operation agreement does change the context for what is achievable within a constructive partnership with the EU, and what credible next steps could look like. I cannot say with any sincerity to businesses that I meet that the Welsh Government can help them to overcome the problems they face by adopting a position that is simply not credible or even available to UK Ministers today. We continue to want to secure the closest possible frictionless trade with the EU and will continue to press that case. We also believe that it would be much easier to make that case if there were a new Government after a ballot in which all of us could express our opinions.

Rhys ab Owen to reply to the debate.

Diolch yn fawr, Llywydd. We've heard some clear and factual reasons this afternoon, from Cefin Campbell, from Luke Fletcher, from Jane Dodds, of why we should join the single market. In fact, I think we heard some clear and factual reasons from Vaughan Gething, the Minister, on why we should join. Now, we know that Boris Johnson dismissed the impact of Brexit on the economy in very unparliamentary language before he became Prime Minister. Well, we didn't hear language like that from the benches opposite today, but we certainly did hear plenty of Boris bluster, didn't we, from James Evans and Tom Giffard? And James and Tom, I think you need to stop emulating Boris Johnson because his days are numbered.

To answer—[Interruption.] 

Will you take an intervention?

No, you've had plenty of time. To answer James and Rhianon: people are allowed to change their minds, James and Rhianon. That's why we have regular elections, and the Conservatives will find, at the next general election, that a lot of people have surely changed their minds. On Monday—[Interruption.] I'll take an intervention from you, Hefin, yes.

I appreciate my friend offering me that intervention; that's very kind of him. He knows I've got respect for him, so this question is genuinely meant. I don't understand Plaid Cymru's position on wanting to rejoin the European single market, but wanting to leave the UK single market. Can he rationalise that?

Yes, of course. We want to be part of a bigger European Union, part of an equal nation with the other European nations. We are an internationalist party; that's the answer, Hefin David. And our position is very clear and consistent with this, whilst Keir Starmer's newest slogan, 'Make Brexit Work', is completely nonsensical. He spoke against rejoining the customs union on Monday. The Welsh Government should agree that Brexit is a disaster, that the slogan should be 'Brexit Isn't Working'. And as Luke Fletcher reminded us, it's the poorest in our communities who are suffering because of it. Sixty-two years to his death, Aneurin Bevan put it best:

'We know what happens to people who stay in the middle of the road. They get run over.'

And I hope Sir Keir listens to that advice, because it's impossible for him to stand up for the poorest in our communities, for the poorest in Wales, while he's sitting so firmly on the fence all the time. It's disappointing that the Welsh Government seems to be sitting on the fence also, and they've weakened the motion to make it meaningless today—totally meaningless.

Meanwhile, Scottish Labour actually have said that they want shifts to rejoin the single market. That's why today we are calling for everyone here to support this motion. Welsh Labour, stop sitting on the fence; splinters are painful. It's time to say 'yes' to the single market, 'yes' to a better Welsh economy, and 'no' to Boris's disastrous Brexit. Diolch yn fawr.

The proposal is to agree the motion without amendment. Does any Member object? [Objection.] Yes, there is objection, so I will defer voting on the motion until voting time.

Voting deferred until voting time.

That brings us to voting time, and so we will take a short break to prepare for the vote technically.

Plenary was suspended at 17:59.

The Senedd reconvened at 18:02, with the Llywydd in the Chair.