Questions now from the party leaders. Leader of the Welsh Conservatives, Andrew R.T. Davies.

Thank you, Presiding Officer. Could I comment on the First Minister's tie? Looking very loud today, with a knot at the top of it, which isn't usual for the First Minister, in fairness. Perhaps it's the end-of-term feeling that he has. [Laughter.]

I'd just like to ask the First Minister, if I may, on NHS waiting times. If we were standing here this time last year, the two-year-wait figure for people in the Welsh NHS would have been 7,600. Today that two-year figure stands at nearly 70,000 people waiting. We need to give people hope that they can progress off a waiting list and through the NHS back into some sort of normality in their lives. People aren't on waiting lists because they choose to be there, they're waiting for medical procedures, First Minister. So, can you give that hope as we go into the summer recess that these numbers will start to come down and we won't be standing here this time next year talking in similar terms?

I thank the leader of the opposition. I'll offer you a brief explanation of my tie, which is that it is a tie knitted for me by a very elderly lady who came to this country immediately after the second world war as a refugee from Ukraine. This knot is a Ukranian design that she knitted and sent in recognition of the work that, right across Wales, is going on to welcome people from Ukraine, as he discussed with me only a couple of weeks ago, here to Wales. On our last session before the break, Llywydd, I thought I would wear it in recognition of her wish to demonstrate that. So, thank you for that.

On NHS waiting times, I think there are reasons why people can begin to see improvement. In the last figures that were available, our ambulance times improved, waiting times in emergency departments improved, the times that people were waiting for therapies were down by 10.5 per cent compared to the previous month, and long waits were starting to improve. Look, it's a start of a long journey here, because the NHS continues to deal every day both with the legacy of the pandemic period but also with the impact of coronavirus here in Wales today. We have 1,900 staff who would otherwise be in work in the NHS today who are not in work because they themselves are ill with coronavirus. One in 20 people in Wales in last week's Office for National Statistics survey are ill in that way. We went, on Friday, above 1,000 people again in an NHS bed ill with coronavirus. The number of people in intensive care with coronavirus rose again last week. And on top of the 1,900 people who are ill with coronavirus, over another 600 people are not in work because they are self-isolating having been in contact with somebody. So, that's 2,500 people who could be in work today, providing those treatments, getting those waiting times down, who aren't there because coronavirus is still here in Wales. So, the system is working as hard as it can to increase the supply of treatments, to make good the backlog, but the difficulties in its path are very significant and haven't gone away. 

Thank you for the explanation on the tie, First Minister. It's always good to have a bit of good news in this Chamber. But there is another way, because as we've seen in England with two-year waits, those figures peaked at 23,000 waiting two years or more out of a population of 57 million; they now stand at 12,000, or just over 12,000. I accept the pressures on the NHS and staff in particular after what has been a very challenging two to two and a half years, and the continued incidences of COVID and the effect that has on the workforce, but, clearly, if one part of the United Kingdom with a very large population can pull those two-year waits down, yet regrettably here in Wales, where we have a population of 3 million, we're seeing just under 70,000 people waiting, why hasn't the Welsh Government adopted the surgical hub model that the Royal College of Surgeons have talked about, which clearly has worked in England, where there are 91 centres? More are required, I accept that, but the figures don't lie, First Minister. Their numbers are coming down, ours are going up. As I said, we need to offer people hope. So, can you give us a map out of the despair that many people feel at the moment of being stuck on this waiting list that just seems to go in one direction?

Well, Llywydd, it doesn't just go in one direction, as I explained in my original answer, and the plan is already there and published. It's published by the health Minister, showing milestones over the period ahead as to how we will reduce those waiting times, and our map matches the ambitions that have been set for England as well.

The NHS in all parts of the United Kingdom has had a torrid time and goes on having a torrid time everywhere. I'm not going to trade figures with him. More than twice the population of Wales is now on a waiting list in England. I remember, when I was the health Minister, answering questions here on the day when, for the first time, the number of people on a waiting list in England went above the population of Wales. Now, it's more than twice that level. That's not a criticism of the English NHS, because it faces exactly the same sorts of struggles and difficulties as we face here. The numbers of long waits are coming down in Wales, as they are in England. We want them to come down faster, of course we do.

Let me tell you this, though, Llywydd: what will never bring waiting lists down in England or in Wales are some of the fantasy ideas that we see your party's politicians parading in London. How will it bring waiting times down in the NHS anywhere in the United Kingdom if your current Chancellor of the Exchequer has his way and reduces the budget of the health department by 20 per cent, because that's what he said he intends to do if he is elected? A 20 per cent reduction in the number of doctors, a 20 per cent reduction in the number of nurses, a 20 per cent reduction in the number of social workers, a 20 per cent reduction in the number of teachers—where will that lead services in Wales or in any other part of the United Kingdom? And yet, that seems to be the only debate that your party has to offer when it comes to selecting the latest in a long line of defenestrated Prime Ministers that your party has offered us in the last six years.

First Minister, if you want to debate the Conservative leadership contest, I'll happily provide you with a membership form and you can come to the hustings. I will also—[Interruption.] I will also quite happily sit on any tv platform and debate with you on the merits of that. And I can hear the front bench shouting. The figures I've put to the First Minister, that 68,500 people are waiting two years or more in Wales—that is a fact. That's your own figure, the front bench. In England it is 12,500, out of a population of 57 million. I acknowledge the pressures on the NHS, but I can understand why the First Minister doesn't want to debate the figures when his figures here are so horrendous. Now, he offered no plans, no solutions and he hasn't offered a road out for many of these people who are stuck on the waiting times, other than to talk about the waiting times in England, which has a population, as I've said, of 57 million people. To have the equivalent waiting times here in Wales, you would need to have 13 million people plus on the waiting lists in England. Now, First Minister, you need to do better than that. You have the levers to actually offer hope, which is where I started my line of questioning to you on these waiting times. You have not offered any hope or solutions this afternoon, so for one last time I ask you again: will we be debating these numbers this time next year, because your Government has failed to deal with them and address them, or will you offer some solutions so people going into the summer can have confidence that they won’t be facing such a bleak winter on a waiting list all over again?

Llywydd, it was the leader of the opposition who opened his first question by referring to waiting times in England, not me; he was the person who introduced that in his original question. And I’ll tell him this: if you want to ask people outside this Chamber whether they would prefer to be living under a Labour Government here in Wales or the shambles of his party in England, he’ll get the answer, and it won’t take people long to give it to him either. I don’t need the membership application form—[Interruption.]—I don’t need the membership application form in order to find out what people in your party think of one another, because I can read it in any newspaper any single day. Ferrets in a sack are unlikely to come up with a plan for the NHS anywhere in the United Kingdom. The planned programme, the programme for planned operations in the Welsh NHS, has been published. It has a year-by-year set of—[Interruption.] Llywydd, I'm not going to indulge him on that.

I think the First Minister can respond to the question now before we move on.

Let me just tell the Member again: if he hasn’t had the chance to read it because he’s been too busy reading manifestos of people seeking to lead his party, we can supply him with a copy. It sets out a year-by-year sequence of ways in which waiting times in Wales will be addressed to the same timetable as his party has set for England. That’s our ambition and we wish we could do more and we could do it faster. 

On behalf of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Thank you very much, Llywydd. The first census results have been published; they’re headline figures so far. The population is reducing in many areas—Ceredigion seeing the greatest decrease at almost 6 per cent. There is a suggestion that the population is also growing older, which emphasises the need to keep hold of our young people, and that means making them want to stay here in Wales. Now, does the First Minister agree that the Welsh Government’s plan for young people needs to look at far more than simply jobs, it needs to include all aspects of the needs of young people—housing, environment, resources, vibrant communities—and that’s how you encourage young people to decide to live and prosper here in Wales?

Thank you for that question, of course, and I have seen the census results that have been published. There is a lot more information to draw out of those figures over the coming months. One of the reasons why I and Adam Price stood together in a press conference last week to set out the plan that we have on homes for people in rural areas was to try and create possibilities for the future for young people who want to live in the communities where they were born, and to stay there and to work there and to raise their children and, of course, to have somewhere to live. And through everything that we’re doing, we do want to create opportunities where people who want to remain in local communities can do so successfully. The figures show that it’s important for us to do more than that in order to attract people to Wales to be part of our future here, and that will be an important thing for us in the future as well.

Without doubt, we want to attract the best brains to Wales, as well as keeping our own talent here. The current financial pressures, the highest inflation for 40 years, is having a great impact on young people. You only need to look at recent NUS research to see that more students than ever are reliant on foodbanks or are borrowing beyond their means. The wage level for apprentices is a problem—as low as £4.81 an hour; finding accommodation for students is in crisis in many areas; and the amount that students pay has increased over three years from some £4,768 to over £6,000. We need to provide more financial support to young people, and we need to control unsustainable rents too, because, as well as having an impact on their mental health, financial hardship does prevent them from reaching their academic potential. So, how does the First Minister intend to take action in these areas to prevent the brain drain, because financial factors are very real factors in locking people out of education and thereby preventing them from reaching their full potential?

Well, Llywydd, Wales has the most generous form of student support anywhere in the United Kingdom, and I didn't hear any recognition of that in what the Member just had to say. Of course the current crisis in the cost of living affects young people and people in universities, as well as anybody else, and the Welsh Government takes a series of measures in the field of mental health, for example, to make sure that there are additional services for young people, who have faced difficult times in the last couple of years and are now looking to re-establish themselves for the future.

I take a fundamentally different view, I suspect, to the Member on this issue of a brain drain. The pattern we see in Wales is that we do see people leaving Wales as they complete their education, and we see them come back to Wales as well a decade or so later. I think that is a good thing. I somehow doubt that he and his party take the same view. I think that young people who are brought up in Wales should have every possibility in front of them, that they should think of the world as somewhere where they can see their futures. And we know that they will reach a point in their lives where they will want to come back to Wales, where they will want to bring up families here in Wales, and they will bring back to Wales all the experiences that they have gained elsewhere. I think that is to our advantage, not a disadvantage. I don't think trying to set up a system in which our aim is to keep young people here in Wales, rather than allowing them to see themselves as wider citizens of the world, will be the best way in which to secure our future.

I wasn't looking for division here today; I was looking for consensus, frankly. Having a daughter in Paris currently, a graduate of the London School of Economics and Political Science, having lived in Italy myself, having spent time living in London myself—. We're not about closing the doors for our young people and telling them not to leave, but the truth of the matter is that too many do not come back to Wales. And those that do, well, listen, we want them to reach their potential for their own sake and for the sake of our economy too, whilst attracting the best to Wales, as I said. 

Now, in March, the capital region in Cardiff boasted about the relatively low graduate pay levels in Cardiff compared with other parts of the UK. They said that graduates in Cardiff are paid around 20 per cent less, £6,000 less a year, than those in Glasgow. I'm not sure if they expect us to be somehow proud of that, but it was insulting to our young talent—come to Cardiff, our graduates are cheap. They're going through enough of a hard time as it is, having been through COVID and now facing the cost-of-living crisis. Welsh graduates must be valued as more than cheap labour if the Welsh brain drain is to be reversed. And there is a brain drain, and if you're relaxed about losing our talent, talent that may well and quite often does not come back, you really need to think again. Does the First Minister think that promoting a low-wage economy is the best way to boost the aspirations of young people in Wales, because we on these benches don't?

Well, Llywydd, I'll try to be consensual as well, because, of course, I completely agree with him that selling Wales as a low-wage economy was a failed policy of the Thatcher era, and we don't look to recreate that today. The Cardiff capital region actually produced a list of cities where graduate salaries are different—places where Wales offers more than some cities and places where Cardiff offers less. That is just the fact of the matter. And I don't think that we should read from that that they were looking to attract people here because we're a cheap place to live. The picture of the capital region is that Wales is a great place to come and live, not simply because we offer graduate-level jobs and opportunities for people to make careers, but because we offer so much more than that as well.

Now, we will differ on the fundamental issue as to whether or not it is good for Wales that our young people have experiences elsewhere, and I don't think that he is factually correct, either, to say that we don't do well in attracting people back into Wales at the point in their lives when they wish to return and they wish to make that contribution to our economy. I want Wales to be somewhere outward-looking and confident as a nation—a place where people want to come, want to settle, want to live and want to work for all the reasons that make this place so special. And I think that it is possible to succeed in doing that, and I don't think the talk of brain drains and people leaving and all that actually helps us—[Interruption.] It doesn't help us when it is portrayed as though Wales is somehow somewhere were people fail to have that sort of future, because that is not the sort of Wales we either have or wish to have in the future.

Question 3, Hefin David.

Hear, hear. Here we go.

What support is the Welsh—[Laughter.] I'm sorry. Alun Davies was being very silly there; he made me laugh.

That statement is now on the record. [Laughter.]

Yes. [Laughter.] And quite deliberately so, NoContextSenedd.