3. Statement by the Minister for Finance and Local Government: Response to the UK Government Financial Statement

Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 2:30 pm on 27 September 2022.

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Photo of Rebecca Evans Rebecca Evans Labour 2:30, 27 September 2022

Through his statement, the Chancellor ignored all of this and instead prioritised tax cuts for the rich, unlimited bonuses for bankers, and protected the profits of big energy companies. It will have significant economic and social consequences and will cost individuals and families in Wales dearly.

The UK Government should have taken the opportunity to offer more support through welfare benefits and housing. This should have been funded through windfall gains in the energy sector. Instead, the Chancellor has chosen to drastically increase public borrowing, leaving lower income households to shoulder the impact for years to come. The statement failed to set out a comprehensive vision for investment to boost economic growth, improve our energy security for the future and address the climate emergency.

We had no prior engagement on any of the changes in the Chancellor’s statement, including areas of taxation that are devolved to Wales. We are strongly opposed to the abolition of the additional 45 per cent rate of income tax. At a time when it is those on the lower end of the pay scale that are suffering the most, this is a shocking policy to introduce. Evidence strongly suggests that the plan to introduce investment zones will displace economic activity from other parts of the country and have no effect on overall economic growth. We will talk to the UK Government to learn more about these zones, but we will not jeopardise workers’ rights or water down environmental protections.

The UK Government’s insistence that this is not a budget means that it was not accompanied by the traditional distributional analysis, which would have shown how the measures would impact on household finances. I think this speaks volumes. According to the Resolution Foundation, people living in south-east England or London will see more than three times the gains of those in Wales, the north-east or Yorkshire. Wales Fiscal Analysis noted that, in Wales, nearly 90 per cent of the gains will go to households in the top 50 per cent of the income distribution, with 40 per cent going to households in the top 10 per cent.

The Chancellor’s refusal to let the Office for Budget Responsibility provide an economic forecast ahead of his fiscal statement is completely irresponsible. At a time where the UK is on the brink of a recession, the UK Government should have focused on opportunities to invest in people and in programmes that provide economic stability. Instead, the turmoil in the markets in reaction to the statement has shown that there is no confidence in the UK Government’s economic strategy. The movements in sterling and in the cost of government borrowing show that markets do not believe that the current UK Government will either deliver on economic growth or put the public finances on a sustainable footing.

In the absence of OBR forecasts, based on work by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and new independent forecasts published by HM Treasury, the value of the Welsh Government’s budget over the current three-year settlement is up to £4 billion less in real terms than was expected when that settlement was reached. The Chancellor’s statement failed entirely to recognise these pressures.

For the current financial year, we have maximised our funding, prioritising health and public services and addressing the climate emergency. Here in Wales, we will be spending £1.6 billion this financial year on schemes targeted towards the cost-of-living crisis and on programmes that put money in people’s pockets. Without additional funding from the UK Government, we face extremely difficult choices, both for the current year and as we begin to formulate our budgets for the next two years. I remain concerned at the underlying level of uncertainty surrounding the UK Government’s budget plans and the impact that this has on our own ability to plan.

The certainty that I was able to provide to delivery partners and their employees by setting a multi-year budget in 2022 has all but been eroded by the lack of clarity on HM Treasury’s future plans, and I remain increasingly concerned at the impact that this could have. The Chancellor has indicated that he wants to introduce further tax cuts, at the same time as reducing debt as a share of GDP. This implies that we will likely see huge spending cuts in future. Not only is the UK Government failing to address the problems in funding levels now, it is also determined to set the country on a course that means further cuts in already stretched public services.

I was already considering what changes we should make to land transaction tax rates and bands due to the increases in property prices in Wales prior to the UK Government’s rushed fiscal statement. I would have liked to have made these changes in our budget later this year. However, I am concerned that the level of expectation of changes will lead to considerable uncertainty in our housing market. I am therefore announcing that I'll be making changes to both the starting threshold at which LTT is payable by homebuyers and the tax rate that they pay. Our zero-rate band will increase for transactions paying no more than £180,000 to not more than £225,000. The next band will be for transactions where the consideration given is more than £225,000 but not more than £400,000. The rate payable will be 6 per cent. This will mean that there will be a reduction in tax payable for transactions costing up to £345,000 of a maximum of £1,575. These changes will come into effect on 10 October.

There will also be a small maximum tax increase of up to £550 for transactions costing more than £345,000. This represents around 15 per cent of property transactions in Wales. I have taken this decision on the knowledge that taxpayers buying homes costing more than £345,000 are also those most likely to benefit from the tax cuts that the Chancellor announced last Friday. Transitional rules will be included to protect taxpayers who have exchanged contracts before the regulations making the changes come into force. There will be no changes to the higher rates residential property transactions—the rates and thresholds will remain the same—and all other elements of land transaction tax will remain unchanged.

I know that many Members across the Chamber will have concerns at the regressive measures that the UK Government introduced last Friday. I want to reassure you that the Welsh Government will continue to work with progressive parties here, and with our partners across Wales, to protect the people and the public services of Wales as best we can in light of the challenges we face.