2. Will the First Minister set out the Welsh Government’s strategy for economic growth? OQ58597

Llywydd, good afternoon to Dr Hussain. The Welsh Government strategy is diametrically different to the disastrous approach of the latest Conservative Government. Alongside and in partnership with businesses, we invest in the physical infrastructure that promotes investment and the human capital that improves productivity.

In March last year, your Government published its 'Wales Infrastructure Investment Plan—Project Pipeline', setting out a range of investments in communities in Wales, including those which local authorities had committed to. Whilst I welcome the attempt to capture these activities, it is clear that there is a range of major challenges now facing the south of the country that are not being addressed, not least the continued M4 congestion at the Brynglas tunnels in Newport. CBI Wales has long argued for this to be tackled for our prosperity and employment in south and west Wales. This week also marks the Road Haulage Association's National Lorry Week, which they launched in my region yesterday. Hauliers told me at the launch that hold-ups around Newport often push drivers over their allotted hours and that the lack of lorry parks was also taking a toll. First Minister, in the absence of doing the right thing and building a relief road, what alternative solutions do you now have up your sleeve to unblock this vital link into Wales and improve the situation for Wales's road hauliers? Thank you.

Llywydd, I don't plan to relitigate an issue that has long been settled here in Wales. The Conservative Party put their case to the people in Wales at the last Senedd election. The building of the M4 relief road was a prominent promise that the Welsh Conservative Party made, and your party failed to win a single seat—a single seat—along the whole length of the M4 in south Wales. So, if you believe that your case is a sound one, you can continue to put it to people in Wales, and you'll continue to get the same answer.

What we are doing is we are pressing ahead with the proposals of the Burns commission—a series of practical actions that can be taken to address congestion at the M4. We will complete the dualling of the Heads of the Valleys road, which will mean that heavy traffic coming from the midlands will be able to go directly to south-west Wales without having to come down and pass through Newport. There is, as I've said before, Llywydd, a major challenge now facing the UK Government. The Johnson Government launched the UK connectivity review. We put evidence to the Sir Peter Hendy review—I don't believe the Welsh Conservatives did—and we promoted there the investment that is needed to improve the second railway line, the second main line, down from south Wales, in order to be able to draw traffic away from the M4 and so that people have better public transport alternatives. The Hendy review endorsed the case that we have made, and, to be fair, the UK Government has provided a small amount of money to develop the ideas that the Hendy review endorsed. Now there will be a major decision. Shall we see whether the latest UK Prime Minister will take up the promises that were made in the UK connectivity review and demonstrate that they are prepared to invest in Wales, so that some of the issues that Dr Hussain has mentioned can be properly addressed? 

I'm sure that the First Minister meant to say 'a single constituency seat along the M4'. 

What did I say?

You said 'single seat'. 

A single constituency seat—I beg your pardon. 

Delyth Jewell. 

Diolch, Llywydd. I'm afraid that efforts to promote growth have been fatally undermined by what the Tories have done to our economy, and I'm concerned about the prospect of job losses and the damage that that will mean not only to our economy, but to people's lives. Businesses across my region are under pressure with rising energy bills and inflation. The Federation of Small Businesses' small business index recently found that business confidence has plummeted, as they face rising costs and decreasing revenue, and public sector employees also face the prospect of a new wave of hyper austerity, with council leaders and Ministers warning that the financial situation is serious. So will you assure the Senedd, Prif Weinidog, that you'll do everything you can to protect jobs in Wales over the coming period, and explain what discussions you'll be having with representatives of businesses and public services to try to avoid job losses? 

I thank Delyth Jewell for that question, Llywydd, because she is right: on any reasonable reading of the current prospectus, job losses are coming to Wales and to the United Kingdom. I think I said on the floor of the Senedd in the last couple of weeks that, if we were to see cuts in public expenditure of the eye-watering variety promised by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, then that will result in hundreds, if not thousands, of jobs being lost in public services in Wales. It is absolutely unavoidable. Somewhere around 50 per cent to 56 per cent of all the money spent in public services in Wales is spent on people; employing people to do the jobs that other people then rely on. If there are to be cuts in those budgets, then those jobs will be lost. It's simply unavoidable, and it will be a direct consequence of having to deal with the catastrophic results of the briefest Prime Minister in UK history.

Again, Delyth Jewell is right to point to the fact that those pressures appear in the private sector as well as in the public sector. The Bank of England says that the UK economy is already in recession and it will raise interest rates again in November despite the fact that, in any other circumstances, it will be cutting interest rates in order to support a shrinking economy, and that will put great pressure on employment in the private sector as well.

The Welsh Government, of course, works with our colleagues in local authorities and in the NHS to minimise, as best we can, whatever impact there will be from the statement on 31 October. And we work with our major employers as well, many of whom have plans to expand employment here in Wales, because of the approach that the Welsh Government takes to these matters. They understand that we are partners with them, in the business of helping them. Think, Llywydd, for a moment, of the Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre Cymru in north Wales, built with £20 million of Welsh Government money, and the reason why the Wing of Tomorrow is being built by Airbus in north Wales; the reason why, with the food and drink sector in north Wales, we now have the Factory of the Future project based in the AMRC—because we understand, in a way that the Tories never do, that public investment used properly crowds in private investment, and doesn't crowd it out, and that it is a responsibility of Government to invest in the skills of a workforce that brings employment to Wales in the future. That's the story of Airbus; that's the story of the cyber security cluster in south Wales. They are examples of the way in which a sensible approach to economic growth can make things happen, just as we have seen what a disastrous approach to economic growth can do to the future prospects of the country.

Of course, the last time we met, First Minister, the Tories were telling us that Liz Truss was the best Prime Minister that we've ever had and that Conservative economic policy was unchallengeable. We've seen some change in that in the last few days. But, what we haven't seen, of course, is any change in the reality of Tory economic incompetence, which means that Wales doesn't get the investment that should come to us. The people of Blaenau Gwent want to see investment in the Ebbw valley line, but they don't get it because rail isn't devolved and the Tories will not invest in Wales.

First Minister, do you agree with me that what we need to see is not only a change of Government, but we need to see a change in attitude from the UK Treasury that means that countries like Wales and Scotland, and the north of England, get the same priority and investment as London and the south-east of England?

Well, Llywydd, of course I agree with Alun Davies that what this country needs is a general election—an opportunity for all parties to make their case to people and for the people to decide how they believe the crisis that we face should best be tackled. That general election is a democratic necessity, but it's also an economic necessity because you need a Government with a mandate and with the stability to take the difficult decisions that undoubtedly are there to be made. If we had that opportunity, I believe not only would Wales be better off, but the United Kingdom, of course, would be better off as well.

As to the point that the Member has made about the Treasury, I'm afraid I've long believed that the Treasury, driven by the Barnett formula, is essentially a Treasury for England, and that other parts of the United Kingdom simply get the consequences of decisions that are made in that way. We need a Treasury that is prepared to make the decisions that recognise the different needs of the United Kingdom and is prepared to invest in that way. Let's give one example of just how differently things are thought of in London and by the Conservative party: the now-discredited package of tax cuts made by Liz Truss would have resulted in three times—[Interruption.]

Okay, let's hear the First Minister finish his answer to the question.

Thank you, Llywydd. I'm just explaining the importance of the point that Alun Davies made. Had the Liz Truss Government had their way, those tax cuts would have provided three times as much to London and the south-east than they would have provided to Wales or to northern England. They, of course, were very pleased to support all of that only two weeks ago, just as today, they're no doubt pleased to turn their back on it all as though it had never happened. But, the point that Alun Davies makes is exactly that: we need a Treasury prepared to think of the needs of the country as a whole, not just London and the south-east of England.