Item 3 this afternoon is a statement by the Minister for Economy on the young person's guarantee. I call on the Minister, Vaughan Gething.

Diolch yn fawr, Dirprwy Lywydd. Last month saw the one-year anniversary of the launch of the young person's guarantee here in Wales. This key programme for government commitment provides under-25s in Wales with the offer of support to gain a place in education or training, support to find a job, or support to become self-employed. I recognise the importance of work for our young people, and I want all young people in Wales to be able to benefit from the rewards that good work brings—not just the financial rewards, but the sense of purpose and pride that comes from having a job. The weight of evidence also tells us that the interventions we make now will help young people maintain better paid work over the course of their working life.

Dirprwy Lywydd, we know that the pandemic has meant that many young people have lost out on valuable work experience and training opportunities very early on in their careers. Employers have lost out on recruiting prospective employees and opportunities to create a new, more dynamic workforce. The impact of the pandemic on our labour market is still unfolding, but we're clear about the need to learn lessons as we move forward. 

In the wake of the disastrous UK Government mini budget mark 1, a bleak economic outlook from the Office for Budget Responsibility and Bank of England, and the loss of replacement EU funds, I am more concerned than ever about the employment prospects of our young people. And the recession is likely to cause higher unemployment. The loss of over £1 billion of EU replacement funds means that the Welsh Government is less able to prevent job losses or provide the same level of support for those impacted. Many businesses continue to face weakened trading conditions caused by significant problems with the trade and co-operation agreement with the European Union. Against this backdrop, and a smaller real-terms Welsh Government budget, I have worked to prioritise the young person's guarantee as far as possible to help protect the prospects of young people most at risk in the uncertain times that we face. The young person's guarantee draws on all programmes and provision across the training, education and employability sector to match the complex and diverse needs of young people across Wales. Since we launched the young person's guarantee, we have seen over 20,000 interventions delivered through our employability services alone, and 11,000 young people have started on Welsh Government-funded employability programmes. By April this year, there had already been over 18,600 all-age apprenticeship starts following the beginning of this Senedd term.

Young people have faced extraordinary circumstances and deep uncertainty in recent years. Rites of passage that many of us take for granted have been upended. We should pay tribute to the way that so many young people have adapted to plan for their future, support their peers, families and communities. That lived experience is something many of us would struggle to comprehend. It reinforces why we must listen to the voices of young people to ensure that the decisions that we take support their next steps. Those experiences and next steps will shape business operations, culture, health, education and our society in the years to come. 

The Prince's Trust have reported that more than 60 per cent of people aged 16 to 25 have said they're scared about their generation's future, with one in three concerned that their job prospects will never recover from the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis. To help overcome these fears, we continue to run our Feed Your Positivity campaign, which aims to provide young people with positive messages and support to enable them to begin or change their life story. The campaign was a response to the impact of the COVID pandemic and has been designed to counter the negativity the economic backdrop injects into discussions around job prospects and challenges to mental health that young people are exposed to. Part of that campaign saw the Welsh Government sponsor October's Skills Cymru event—the first since the pandemic. I had the pleasure of seeing first hand the positive response from young people as they met local and national employers and high-quality education providers face to face, to gain expert career advice and to have a helping hand in planning their careers. This year saw over 5,000 young people and 45 exhibitors participate in Wales's largest free in-person careers, training and apprenticeship event.

Dirprwy Lywydd, the national conversation has been at the heart of the young person's guarantee, developing our ability to better understand the issues that young people face. At the beginning of last year, we set ourselves the challenge to address how to better reach young people, how to communicate in a way that wins and maintains trust.

We have found that generation Z, as some call them, are more prudent, serious and climate conscious than their predecessors, and that education, employment and their future prospects are top priorities. They are more likely to celebrate diversity, and are balancing their desire for constant connection and the latest technology with concerns about privacy and security. Unfortunately, it is also a generation that is facing significant mental health and confidence barriers. We are seeing more young people than ever who are economically inactive due to health reasons, not just here in Wales, but across the UK. What we can be sure of is that the scarring effect of the pandemic is beginning to take effect. That is why we have a continued focus on those who are most vulnerable. Focusing on those not in employment, education or training is crucial if we are to address the threat of a long tail of unemployment or economic inactivity in years to come. We have already acted decisively on ways to improve how we identify those young people who might need additional support the most. The refreshed youth engagement and progression framework, which Jeremy Miles, Lynne Neagle, Julie Morgan and I co-published in September, will play a key part in putting appropriate support or provision in place to ensure that young people are identified and supported before they reach a crisis point.

Jobs Growth Wales is already supporting over 3,000 young people—Jobs Growth Wales+, I should say, Dirprwy Lywydd—aiding their transition into the labour market and delivering catch-up activities for learners as a result of the impact of COVID. We've also linked up access to the basic income pilot and are looking at further collaboration to increase the package of support for those facing complex disadvantage. Over 2,700 young people have been supported by our front-line local authority-led service, Communities for Work+. That's up from 1,700 since my last statement. It is encouraging to see more young people come forward to receive one-to-one intensive employment support and training within their local community.

For those who have entrepreneurial ambitions, in a little over three months our young person's start-up grant already has 120 participants, working with business advisers to review their business ideas and help develop their business plans to apply for the grant. Seventy-five young people, in the brief period of time that the grant has been available, who were previously unemployed, have since been awarded a grant to help start their business. Every further education college in Wales now has a dedicated employment and enterprise bureau. They will be called different things in different colleges, but they are providing a breadth of employment support and opportunities to streamline the transition from learning to working.

We will continue to celebrate our success and promote Wales as a great place to live and work. That's why I was so pleased to see Wales's achievements at the World Skills UK finals in Cardiff last month, where, once again, Wales topped the leader board within the UK, with a total of 59 individuals winning awards. As shown in today's draft budget, the Welsh Government will continue to stand by, and stand up for, our young people. In the face of the worst financial outlook since devolution, I call again on the UK Government to do the same. The strength of our economy depends on acting with the right support now. Thank you, Dirprwy Lywydd.

Can I thank the Minister for his update on the young person's guarantee this afternoon? There has been some progress in securing opportunities for young people, either through education, training, employment or self-employment, and the Minister has highlighted some of the good practice that has taken place since the scheme was launched in November last year. When the Minister last gave a statement on the young person's guarantee, he was very frank about some of the practical barriers in getting people to engage in the service, and today's statement tells us a bit more about the work of Jobs Growth Wales+ in this area. The Minister also talks about further collaboration to increase the package of support for those facing complex disadvantage, so perhaps he could expand on the statement and tell us a bit more about the work that is being done here. Of course, as the young person's guarantee continues to deliver, it's vital that the views of young people across Wales are heard so that the Welsh Government can capture valued feedback about the delivery of the scheme and how it's supporting young people in practice. 

Now, today's statement says that, at the beginning of last year, the Welsh Government set itself the challenge to address how to better reach young people and communicate in a way that wins and maintains trust. However, the statement doesn't tell us how the Welsh Government is addressing that challenge, and so, I hope that the Minister will tell us how the Welsh Government is better reaching young people and communicating with them so that the young person's guarantee can adapt, learn lessons and roll out good practice. Earlier this year, the Minister told us that the young person's guarantee is not a static offer, and I'm pleased to see that, from today's statement, it's evolving and exploring new ways of offering opportunities to young people. The education offer is, of course, a crucial part of the young person's guarantee, and today's statement tells us that every further education college in Wales now has a dedicated employment and enterprise bureau. Whilst I welcome that action, FE colleges and work-based learning providers ultimately remain concerned about future finance, particularly as many are facing increased costs in terms of delivery. Given the importance of the sector to the success of the young person's guarantee, perhaps he could give us some more information regarding the level of resources for the FE sector from the Welsh Government's upcoming budget. 

Working with businesses is a critical part of the programme, and it's important that we see more and more employers buying into the scheme, so perhaps the Minister can tell us whether the number of businesses engaging has increased since the launch of the young person's guarantee last year. 

Now, the young person's start-up grant offers up to £2,000 to help young people to start their own business, and I'm pleased to see investment being made, because as the Minister knows, issues like accessing finance and developing business knowledge and confidence are often barriers to young people starting a business. I'd be grateful if the Minister could provide some more information on the take-up of that grant, and whether the grant is reaching people across Wales. For example, is there any more that can be done to reach young entrepreneurs in rural areas, for example? And how is the Welsh Government ensuring that schools and education providers are promoting the grant so that young people are aware of it?

Now, the success of the young person's guarantee can be measured not just by the number of young people that are now in education, employment and training, but also in its diversity and scope, and with that in mind, it's important that opportunities are being made available to young people with additional learning needs, for example. So perhaps the Minister could tell us a bit more about how the Welsh Government is working to ensure that young adults with additional needs and disabilities are not being left behind. 

Dirprwy Lywydd, it's vital that the resources supporting the young person's guarantee are sufficient, and today's statement makes it clear that the Welsh Government is prioritising the young person's guarantee as far as possible, but fails to tell us how. Therefore, perhaps the Minister can explain exactly how the Welsh Government's budget prioritises the young person's guarantee. Does this mean, then, that the budget for the young person's guarantee is actually being increased?

Finally, I just want to touch on green skills development and the need to ensure the development of apprenticeship frameworks and pathways so that young people can take advantage of the future green skills economy. Developing relationships with engineering businesses, the energy sector and industry is vital to develop a pipeline of talent for the future, so perhaps the Minister could also tell us how the Welsh Government is prioritising green skills development within the young person's guarantee umbrella so that we can learn more about how the Welsh Government is providing opportunities to young people in this area. 

So, in closing, can I thank the Minister for his update? It's clear that the young person's guarantee is providing young people with much-needed opportunities, and it's vital that work is done to ensure that the programme remains effective and supports as many people as possible. Diolch. 

Thank you for the series of questions and comments. Let me just go to some of the starting points he made. When it comes to how we're actually understanding who the young person's guarantee is reaching, and how we're actually dealing with a diverse range of young people, and the complexity, it's because of a number of things. So, some young people have a successful route already into work, education or training. High numbers of people go into post-16 education without the need for additional intervention—some of our challenge there is how we can help with the quality of what they choose, and making sure that the choices are appropriate for them, and they have a more open mind to the range of their career choices. That work actually takes place earlier on in education. When I had the pleasure of being before you in committee recently, we were talking about the need to go earlier into people's educational journey to make sure that people have a wider range of choices. There are still far too many professions where men and women—young boys and girls—make very different choices about what they can do. And actually, there's plenty of talent that isn't being taken advantage of. So, we think that we could do more in terms of getting to people earlier. 

When it comes to those people who we are concerned may not take, if you like, the traditional route that is—[Inaudible.]—by many people, that's why the work we're doing on the youth engagement and progression framework is really important; the earlier you can identify people who are at risk of not being in education, employment or training, the better to support them. That's multi-agency, often, as well. And then to make sure that, when we go into the guarantee itself, to understand the experiences they are having. So, in the national conversation, that's a really important part of understanding that you have traditional survey-based work, people who are more likely to fill in surveys, but also a specific focus group, not just to get into more detail, but some of those groups that are less likely to fill in those traditional surveys. So, for example, care-experienced young people, young parents, people with mental health and people with neurodiversity—dealing with your point again about people with different abilities and disabilities.

So, we've been doing that deliberately to understand who we're reaching and what we can do to improve the offer. That's both the offer itself and your point about communication, because with perhaps the exception of one person we might hear from later on, most of us can't claim to be young anymore, objectively. And actually, the way that people think and see the world is entirely different, and so for us to able to ask them and to listen to them about what makes a difference, where they're getting their information from, and that they're aware of what the guarantee offers and then how they're taking it up. So, the work and employment bureau is for people in further education who might not come out with a further training or education employment outcome out of that, and basing those bureaux, opportunities to bring employers and young people together in a setting that they're familiar with, is really important to be able to do that. 

So, it's one of the examples of how I want to communicate, as well as understanding where people get news, views and information from. I have to say, when I had the campaign entitled 'Feed your positivity', I wasn't sure whether I was talking about someone who was 50 and trying to pretend that I was really 15 again, but, actually, it came from direct evidence and feedback from young people themselves. So, I was reassured about that—that this was something that would be able to actually fit the people we're trying to reach as well, which is part of the point. It does require you to be, every now and again, a little uncomfortable, but that's the whole point of doing this. 

And then, on your point around business engagement, it's hard to say exactly the numbers of businesses, because through the whole guarantee, you've got business engaging at different points in school and further education—for example, the employment bureaux—as well as those that are providing opportunities through Jobs Growth Wales+, for example. I will try to find, in our annual report, if there's a better way to try to highlight the number of businesses that are being engaged; rather than saying it's difficult, to find a way to give you something meaningful, because I do intend to publish an annual report in the new year. And when it comes to the nature of the offer, we have listened to what young people have said, and we've changed our Jobs Growth Wales+ programme. It's now targeted at 16 to 18-year-olds, based on the former traineeship model and what previously happened in Jobs Growth Wales. So, we are deliberately changing the offer itself. 

On the barriers grant, I don't have information yet, but I will look to it to think about protected characteristics, background and geography for people who are taking that up, but it is—. Well, the figures I've told you about are within the first few months, so I wouldn't expect to have, necessarily, a wholly representative view at present, but I'll certainly look to how we can make that information available. 

And when it comes to budget choices—I see the Minister for Finance and Local Government is sat next to me—I won't go through all of the choices as she'll be setting them out in more detail, but in prioritisng within my department the young person's guarantee and various parts of it, it's meant that I had to make painful choices in other parts of the budget. And every Minister could stand up and talk about the priorities they've made and the fact that we've had to pay for that by making different choices somewhere else. That doesn't mean that those things aren't of value, it's just that if you choose things that are your bigger priorities, you've got to make other choices, too, because sadly, there isn't a spare £0.5 billion that the finance Minister has kept somewhere to throw around to keep us all happy. So, we've got really big, difficult choices, and you'll see those in the detail in what the finance Minister says when get to more detailed committee scrutiny in the new year as well. 

And on green skills, I expect to be publishing a net-zero action plan that will deal broadly with your points, and how that plays a part in the young person's guarantee early in 2023. 

Thank you to the Minister for his statement. 

Of course, the young person's guarantee is an important programme for Wales; I think it's fair to say that we all want to see this succeed. After all, we won't reach our targets around net zero, for example, unless we ensure that young people have the skills that they need in the future economy. Much, of course, has changed since it was first announced, however, there are always consistencies when there are economic downturns. One of those is the effect that it has on young people.

Now, much like the Prince's Trust, the End Child Poverty coalition found that 97 per cent of young people who they spoke to, aged 16 to 25, thought that the rising costs of living were a problem for young people today. Concerningly, 77 per cent of respondents said that thinking about the future and the cost-of-living crisis worries them a lot. I'm sure that a number of Members would have had first-hand testimony from NUS students on the steps of the Senedd today, calling for better support for students. One telling me that she couldn't afford to turn on the shower; another telling me that, after being on the steps of the Senedd, she'll only be returning to a cold house. Further figures, of course, 90 per cent of learners say that the cost of living has impacted their mental health; 42 per cent of learners are living on less than £100 per month after bills; but only 7 per cent agree that the Government has done enough.

Further, CollegesWales have voiced concerns regarding the Jobs Growth Wales+ scheme, as the allowance has not increased in line with the cost of living. They're worried that young people may be inclined to look for work in lower skilled areas instead, where the pay offer would be substantially more and therefore won't receive the support or education that their peers may be able to access. In a similar vein, we see the same issue with a reluctance from Welsh Government to increase the education maintenance allowance for those who need it most during this crisis. This, of course, is all interlinked with the young person's guarantee. So, would the Government consider increasing education allowances, to ensure that our young people are able to access education and training, and that we are maximising their skills and talents, not only for themselves but for wider society and the economy?

Now, the Social Mobility Foundation recently found that there is a £6,700 class pay gap in the UK. This means that working-class professionals are effectively working for free nearly one day a week in every seven, compared to their middle-class peers. This only further increases when working-class professionals are women, or from an ethnic minority background. Working-class people have to work significantly harder to achieve what is gifted to others. Meanwhile, the cost-of-living crisis and the pandemic have only further restricted social mobility. Young people from working-class backgrounds are much more likely to be needing this guarantee than their middle-class peers and, as CollegesWales have outlined, may be more inclined to take up employment offers due to stagnation in education allowances. Therefore, how is the Minister ensuring that the employment offered within the scheme is offering fair pay, helping to close the class pay gap, and ensure that those already at a disadvantage are not being funnelled into low-paid and precarious work?

And finally, it was important, of course, that young people's voices are heard within the impact assessment. The impact assessment also notes that an independent evaluation will be carried out at key points in the development and roll-out of the guarantee, including a gender budgeting review, and given that Oxfam Cymru and the Women's Equality Network Cymru found that the gender pay gap in Wales had increased between 2020 and 2022, and that women still face financial inequality in occupation segregation in the Welsh economy, when can this gender budgeting review of the young person's guarantee be expected? Has monitoring of the guarantee so far provided any interim data on gender differences within the scheme or revealed any trends regarding gendered occupational segregation? As I said when I opened my contribution, we all want to see this scheme succeed. The important thing is that it is reaching the people who need that extra bit of help and that people who are struggling as a result of the cost-of-living crisis are not being left at a disadvantage.

Thank you. On your point about the take-up of opportunities between different genders, I'll look again at that, but I want to be clear about the budget review that we've got and actually starting off the guarantee and understanding where we go, because in some parts of it, it'll be clear. We already collect data, for example, on who goes into further education, it's an easy thing to collect, as well as collecting the data on, for example, those people accessing different opportunities—Jobs Growth Wales+, ReAct+ and other employability programmes—we'll have the data on that. We'll also have some data that will understand a number of other programmes.

But I want to see if we're then reaching people, because it's part of the point about the young person's conversation. You know, there are young parents who are mums and dads, but, actually, we know that there's often a differential when it comes to things like childcare costs and what that does to people's practical ability to access opportunities. So, we'll look not just at who's accessing them, but what we're then doing to try and make sure that opportunities are opened up as well, to try to make sure that there's a meaningful response to the point that I understand that the Member is making. 

On your points about the cost-of-living crisis and young people, we've heard very directly from young people, both through the national conversation that we've had about the young person's guarantee, but also through the Cabinet sub-committee on the cost-of-living crisis. We heard just a few weeks ago from young people—and I made this point, I think, in committee, when you were there as well. They were speaking very directly about their own experiences, about the realities of changes to benefit rules, the reality of the cost-of-living crisis for themselves, and the choices that we hear far too often—the choice between heating, eating, and what that does for their physical well-being as well as their mental health and more general well-being as well. It's what is borne out in every survey of young people across Wales and the wider UK: there is a significant challenge being built up in young people's mental health and well-being post the pandemic, and reinforced by the challenges in the cost-of-living crisis. That is certainly one of the things that we're trying to take account of in what we're doing, because having employment, education or training is a protective characteristic to help support good mental health and well-being for young people. That goes then to your point about fair pay as well.

And, look, when it comes to Jobs Growth Wales+, we're not suggesting that the money we're providing is the only money that should be available; it is a wage subsidy to help make it more attractive for young people to gain an opportunity into the world of work, and over half the people who go into Jobs Growth Wales+ have a positive outcome at the end of it, whether that's going into further work or training, or, indeed, considering the opportunities for self employment themselves. The good news is that, in the initial review from Estyn, they're positive about the impact of that programme.

On your point about the class divide between professional pay, between working-class professionals and others, it would be helpful, I think, if you perhaps sent me a note that I can respond to properly, because I want to understand whether the point you're making is about access to opportunities, where we do know that, for lots of professions, who you know really matters—not just the grades you get, but who you know to practically get an opportunity, whether it's the work experience or whether it's the practical opportunities for starting jobs as well—or whether you're talking about starting pay depending on your own family background, or if you're talking about progression through work as well, because I know, again, from a previous life as well as this one, that all of those things matter. So, I'd want to understand the point you're making before responding properly.

And finally, Jenny Rathbone.

Thank you very much, and congratulations to the 59 people from Wales who won the WorldSkills award—that's really fantastic. I'll look them up, and see what it is they won for. 

It's also good to know that young people are more prudent, serious and climate conscious than their predecessors, but they also are struggling with, as you say, significant mental health and confidence barriers. On the work that you're doing to prioritise the young person's guarantee to protect the prospects of young people most at risk, those with disabilities often face the greatest challenges in finding suitable employment. Can the Minister tell us about the work of Engage to Change to match the more complex needs of young people so that all young people have the dignity of work? Because I think that they're the ones who are most likely to be struggling in the middle of a recession.

Yes. We've done some direct work with Engage to Change; I've met them directly myself as well to understand what more we can do. Part of the point is that, when you look at economic access for disabled people in every age sphere, it's significantly less than the rest of the population, so it's again one of the strands I was trying to respond to in some of Paul Davies's questions, about understanding who we need to work with and who we need to listen to to understand what we can do more successfully and to make sure that both employers, education and training providers—make sure that their provision is available and that they're proactively looking for it, as well as matching people with the opportunities that exist. You'll see that running through the different parts of what we're trying to do in the guarantee. I'd encourage the Member and anyone else, particularly if they have constituents who are coming through it, if they have a good or an indifferent experience of some of these programmes, to let me know, because the feedback directly is often helpful about understanding what works, as well as the organisations that we directly work with to try to make sure that lived experience informs what we do in communication and the design and delivery of our programmes. 

And on your starting point, which I'll finish with, the 59 Welsh winners in the WorldSkills finals, co-hosted around the UK; the sessions in Cardiff were part of that. And if the Member has difficulty finding out who the winners are—I'm sure she’ll have some constituents who are winners as well—then I'll be happy to help her find the information to make sure they receive congratulations from across the Chamber as well as the Member herself.

I thank the Minister.