Part of 1. Questions to the Minister for Finance and Local Government – in the Senedd at 1:55 pm on 15 February 2023.
It would be really good to have that update, as an when it's available, although your answer feels a little bit like a previous answer you gave me a while ago.
The first part of your response takes me on to my next question, really, because I was going to refer to the fact that you, in your response to our debate last week, said you needed a better understanding of the behavioural changes and that that would be key to developing and maturing the Welsh tax policy agenda, and I clearly agree with that; it's an important factor. But it's also true that the evidence base isn't there—it's lacking. Indeed, last week's report from the Finance Committee on the draft budget expressed disappointment that the Welsh Government hasn't undertaken a comprehensive analysis of what behavioural impact the raising, or indeed the lowering, of the Welsh rates of income tax would have, and I would certainly echo the committee's view. Because if you suggest that you can't vary Welsh rates of income tax without understanding any subsequent behavioural changes, then without getting that work done, your hands will forever be tied. So, I presume that you do acknowledge, first of all, that there is a glaring need, as the Finance Committee report emphasised and as you suggested in your previous answer, for that work to be done. You mentioned the work by the HMRC, maybe you could just explain whether that is in a specific Welsh context, because there are other pieces of work out there that relate to other jurisdictions but may not, obviously, transfer directly over to our experience here in Wales. It really is important that we address that evidence gap, because otherwise the risk is that I'll be coming back here next year and the year after, listening to you giving me the same answers over and over again.