Questions Without Notice from Party Spokespeople

Part of 1. Questions to the Minister for Finance and Local Government – in the Senedd at 1:57 pm on 15 February 2023.

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Photo of Rebecca Evans Rebecca Evans Labour 1:57, 15 February 2023

So, in respect of the evidence base that we currently use, we already take into account behavioural impacts in our Welsh rates of income tax ready reckoner, which you'll find on the Welsh Government's website. That shows that, for example, were we to raise the additional rate of Welsh rates of income tax, we would probably bring in around £7 million, but actually, the net impact would only be around £3 million, as a result of behavioural changes. We understand that from the basis of a Swiss study—officials advised that that's the closest proxy that we can use in the current circumstances in the absence of any more detailed information that we have. But again, this is an important piece of work for the constitutional commission. 

But then, I'd also point colleagues to the independent body that advises the Scottish Government on its budget and its tax choices—so, their version, if you like, of the Office for Budget Responsibility, in terms of presenting detailed information. I think that if you look at that latest report, you'll see that if the Scottish Government were to raise the very highest rate by 1p it would bring in £30 million, but the net impact would only be around £3 million as a result of behavioural changes and out-migration and so on. All of that information is there. We're considering it all the time. But we do need to build up a proper evidence base so that we can take well-informed decisions.