I now call on the party leaders to question the First Minister, and first this week I call the UKIP group leader, Neil Hamilton.

Thank you very much, Presiding Officer.

Bydd y Prif Weinidog yn gwybod bod ffermio yng Nghymru mewn argyfwng ar hyn o bryd. Mae incwm ffermydd yn gyffredinol 25 y cant yn is ac, mewn rhai sectorau, fel llaeth, maent gymaint â hanner yn is. Wrth gwrs, y cwymp mewn prisiau nwyddau sy’n achosi hyn i raddau helaeth, ond mae rhesymau gweinyddol y tu ôl iddo hefyd, yn enwedig yr anhrefn yn y system taliadau a chynllun y taliad sylfaenol. Mae problem benodol i ffermwyr trawsffiniol gyda thir yn Lloegr yn ogystal ag yng Nghymru, lle mae cannoedd ohonynt yn dal i fod heb gael eu talu, ac, yn wir, nid yw’r wybodaeth a ddarparwyd flwyddyn yn ôl wedi ei dilysu o hyd ac eto maen nhw'n— [Torri ar draws.]

I want to hear an important question on farming. Allow the Member to be heard.

So, I’m going to ask the First Minister: what further progress has been made, particularly with the payments agency in England, to get these problems sorted out?

The vast majority of payments in Wales have been made—over 90 per cent, if I recall correctly. There are, as the Member says, some cross-border farms that await payment, and that’s because we’re awaiting data. It’s not the first time it’s happened, but we’re awaiting data from the Rural Payments Agency. Until that data is available, it’s not possible to make full payment, unfortunately. We hope that it will be resolved swiftly.

I fully agree with what the First Minister says, but it’s quite extraordinary that two Government agencies can’t find the means by which to talk to each other electronically whereas this happens quite naturally in the private sector and, indeed, in our private lives. So, I wonder what he can do to try to integrate the administrative arrangements between England and Wales in this respect, because farmers on the border are in very dire financial straits.

Well, the solution is not in our hands. We await data from the Rural Payments Agency. We’re ready to pay once that data is made available. It’s very difficult to integrate the administration given the fact that the payment schemes are very radically different, and so they should be because the nature of Welsh farming is very different to the nature of farming across much of England. But, as soon as that data is available, of course we will pay our farmers and we have a very good record of doing that over the last few years.

There is another big problem that needs to be addressed, of course, and that’s with the growth of bovine TB. In fact, in my region, in Carmarthenshire, cases of cattle slaughtered as a result of bovine TB are up by 87 per cent this year and in Pembrokeshire up by 78 per cent. With the non-availability of vaccine, the preferred option isn’t available to us. So, what can the Welsh Government actually do to try to cope with the growing problem of bovine TB?

The Member’s correct to point out that the vaccine is not available at present. I know that the Minister has held a meeting this week—or certainly at the end of last week—to look at this issue. There is a need to move forward with dealing with bovine TB. It can’t be left simply to proceed. The Minister is examining what science-led approach could be taken in order to make sure that, at the very least, there is a reduction in the presence of bovine TB and, in time, of course, eradication.

The leader of the opposition, Leanne Wood.

Diolch, Lywydd. I’m sure, First Minister, that you will have shared the warm feelings that I felt on seeing images of the Welsh fans in France singing and linking arms with fellow fans. They were ambassadors for our nation. I thought those images captured something about the naturalness of our place as Wales within Europe, singing with Slovakians—people from another small nation, bilingual and so on. As we approach the final week of the campaign—and families will be gathering together this weekend to work out the best options for them—good information is vital to enable people to make a fully informed choice. What can you and your Government do in the final week to make sure that people vote on accurate information and not on the basis of myth and propaganda?

We can’t send out information as a Government—that’s covered by purdah—but of course, as politicians, we can make our case. I’ll be making the case, as I know she will, over the next few days that Wales is better off in the UK and the EU—well, maybe not the UK as far as she’s concerned, but the EU. [Laughter.] The EU.

We agree, First Minister, on our unity within Europe, and let’s just leave it at that for now. We are, in Wales, the most export-intensive nation within the UK. We’ve got a balance of trade payments surplus in terms of goods with the EU, and that isn’t the case for the UK. Uncertainty, therefore, will impact more upon Welsh businesses and the Welsh economy. We’ll be affected disproportionately here. I’m keen to understand what your Government’s contingency plans are if there is a vote to leave the EU next week. Can you please outline what plans your Government has to mitigate the worst effects for the Welsh economy and Welsh businesses, especially exporting businesses, in the event of a vote to leave the EU?

It’s very difficult to produce a contingency plan when there’s such uncertainty. Nobody knows what would happen if there was to be a ‘leave’ vote. I took note of the fact that Nigel Farage himself last week said that it didn’t matter if there was a trade deal at all with the European Union. That’s disastrous for our farmers and for our exporters. For me, I’ve seen both campaigns, and at the end of the day it comes down to this: why would we put an unnecessary hurdle over which we would have to jump before us when it comes to attracting investment into Wales? It is a huge advantage to have free access to an enormous market, the EU. The UK is a tenth of that market. We have access to that market. To lose that access or to jeopardise that market simply puts another wall in front of us when it comes to attracting investment and when it comes to exporting. The last thing we need to do is to make it harder to export what we produce in Wales, and harder to attract investment into Wales.

I share your concerns, First Minister, and I think we need to think very carefully about what happens in the event of a vote to leave next week. Now, former Prime Ministers Blair and Major waded into the debate saying that one of the other likely consequences of a vote to leave could be the break-up of the UK. Now, I accept that our parties have got two very different views on that, but I’m sure that we’re both agreed that we want to stop a situation whereby Wales is at the total mercy of a Tory Government that we have never, ever in this country voted for. What contingency plans do you have for Wales if we find ourselves part of a rump UK where we will risk facing a Tory Government, or an even more right-wing Government than the present one, on a permanent basis? What plans do you have to protect and promote Wales’s best interests under this scenario?

Again, it’s impossible to predict what might happen in the event of a leave vote. There are serious consequences for Northern Ireland—a part of the wold I know very, very well. The peace process is based on EU membership and what happens to the peace process is difficult to predict. The border is open with a motorway over it, and that border would be the border between the UK and the EU. It would need border control and customs control, so it means shutting a motorway down, and shutting down most of the roads, as happened in the days of the Troubles. That is hugely difficult for the people who live on that island.

It’s difficult to know what the people of Scotland might think, but at the very least there needs to be—and this is regardless of the result next week, because I’ve said it before—a full reassessment of the relationship between the nations of the UK. The current constitution doesn’t work. The concept, to my mind—I’ve said it before—of parliamentary sovereignty doesn’t work. I think we need to move towards a system of shared sovereignty. It happens in Canada, and there’s no reason why it shouldn’t happen here. But there is no question, if there is a ‘leave’ vote next week, that the UK can just carry on as before. That simply isn’t possible if it wishes to remain stable.

Leader of the Welsh Conservatives, Andrew R.T. Davies.

Thank you, Presiding Officer. First Minister, last week in response to my questions on the deal that you struck with the Liberal Democrats, you indicated that your Government would be making available an additional £42 million to meet that commitment over and above the Labour manifesto commitment of £100 million to education. You also then went on to say that if you had the responsibility over the Severn bridge tolls, you would abolish Severn bridge tolls, and that in itself could crystallise in a liability for your Government of between £15 and £20 million. You personally have put a lot of political capital into the most expensive option for the M4 relief road, the black route, which is anything from £1 billion to £1.2 billion. What money tree has the Welsh Government uncovered in Cathays Park that gives you confidence that you are going to suddenly find all this new money to meet these commitments that you are making in the opening weeks of this fifth Assembly?

So, he is against more spending on education; he is against the abolition of the Severn tolls; he is against the M4 relief road. These are three things that, apparently, he was in favour of last week. We have pressed the UK Government for the devolution of the tolls. We would expect there to be a fair financial settlement to reflect that, so that we can get rid of this tax on people coming into Wales. That is what we stand for as a Government. It is unclear where his party stands now.

First Minister, it is not unreasonable to ask the question: what will have to give in your spending commitments to meet your new commitments? I’ve identified £42 million that you’ve committed to last week; a potential liability of £15 million to £20 million if you get rid of the Severn bridge tolls at the end of the public concession—the concessions to the current Severn bridge user; and, also, if you build the black route, the £1 billion to £1.2 billion liability that you as a Government will have to finance. Now, I don’t think that’s unreasonable. People in north Wales, mid Wales and west Wales ask those very questions. If the big capital projects in south-east Wales get the go-ahead, what will have to give in their own areas? So, I put the question to you again—not unreasonably from our position of opposition: where are you going to find this money to meet those commitments that you have given on the record, because you only have a set amount of money available to you? Can you just answer a simple question?

Borrowing it. That’s the whole point. The money for the M4 relief road, whatever it looks like, will be borrowed. The point of that is to make sure that (a) we’re able to do it, because we would not be able to build an M4 relief road of any shape or form if we didn’t borrow the money; and, secondly, through borrowing the money, it doesn’t eat into the roads budget. So, it means that road schemes elsewhere are protected in Wales, they can move forward, and that’s on the basis that the M4 relief road would not take a chunk out of the roads budget. So, it is possible to do both—as the Prime Minister himself has said.

As a Conservative, I fully understand that you can borrow, but you have to pay back borrowing and that has a cost in itself, year in, year out. But, I did also ask you about the education commitment that you made, which we welcome. I also made a comment about the £15 million to £20 million that you would have to meet if you were to abolish the Severn bridge tolls, which, again, in some quarters, is supported. So, how will you meet those liabilities? Those are perfectly legitimate questions. In total, that’s an extra £60 million you will have to find out of the Welsh block grant. Some commitments will have to give. Also, on the black route, there is upfront cost that cannot be borrowed against and you will have to meet that out of day-to-day expenditure. From our position of opposition, it is our job to ask you these questions and I’d hope that you as a Government would have the answers that we would require to satisfy our constituents. Or, are you just making it up as you’re going along?

No. I sat here—or stood here, in fact—in the Chamber before the election, listening to the leader of the opposition, as he was then, saying that they would make spending commitments across the board, not knowing where that money was going to come from. It’s a legitimate question and there are two answers to it. First of all, yes, we will have to examine some of our current spending commitments—not our commitments in the manifesto—and that will happen during the course of the budget process, because the money will have to come from somewhere, that’s true. But, secondly, even though we will see real-term cuts in the block grant that we receive, there will be an uplift in the amount of money available. So, there will be extra money, even if it isn’t sufficient to cover inflation. So, yes, there will be difficult decisions that we’ll have to take over the course of the next year or two, but we’re confident that the money can be found and that will become clear during the budget process.