The next item is the statement by the First Minister on ‘Prosperity for All: the national strategy’. The First Minister to make the statement.

Llywydd, yesterday of course we celebrated the twentieth anniversary of the ‘yes’ vote that brought devolution to Wales. It was an opportunity to look back and reflect on how far we have come since the days of the Welsh Office, a time when Wales was just another Government department. It is also an opportunity to look forward to the next 20 years.

The Deputy Presiding Officer (Ann Jones) took the Chair.

The establishment of this Assembly and, of course, the establishment of this Government, has been a journey of political maturity and also a story of growing confidence and a firm determination on all sides of this Chamber to deliver for Wales. The next stage of that journey is marked today by the publication of the national strategy designed to bring together the efforts of the whole public sector towards this Government’s central mission of delivering prosperity for all.

Dirprwy Lywydd, mae ffyniant yn ymwneud â llawer mwy na chyfoeth materol ac ni ellir ei bennu, na'i gyflawni, yn wir, gan dwf economaidd yn unig. Mae'n ymwneud â phob person yng Nghymru yn mwynhau ansawdd bywyd da, yn byw mewn cymuned gadarn, ddiogel, ac yn rhannu yn ffyniant Cymru. Mae'n amcan syml ac un yr wyf i’n siŵr na all neb dadlau ag ef. Fodd bynnag, er mwyn ei gyflawni bydd angen i bob rhan o'r Llywodraeth a'r gwasanaeth cyhoeddus gydweithio er mwyn ceisio cyflawni'r nod hwnnw.

Hon yw’r strategaeth gyntaf o’i math i'r Llywodraeth, sy’n casglu ynghyd mewn un man y modd y bydd meysydd niferus y Llywodraeth yn gweithio gyda'i gilydd tuag at nod cyffredin, gan roi anghenion pobl Cymru yn gyntaf. Mae’r uchelgais syml y gallwn ni i gyd gydweithio er budd hirdymor Cymru wrth wraidd Deddf Llesiant Cenedlaethau’r Dyfodol (Cymru) 2015, ac mae hwn yn gam pwysig wrth wireddu ein gweledigaeth.

Mae'r strategaeth hon yn rhoi sylw i’n hymrwymiadau yn ‘Symud Cymru Ymlaen’, yn eu gosod mewn cyd-destun hirdymor, ac yn nodi sut y byddant yn cael eu cyflawni mewn modd mwy craff, mwy cydgysylltiedig sy'n croesi ffiniau traddodiadol, y tu mewn a'r tu allan i'r Llywodraeth. Mae’n cydnabod na ellir mynd i'r afael â'r heriau sylfaenol yr ydym ni eu hwynebu fel gwlad dim ond trwy roi pobl cyn systemau a strwythurau a chael mwy o bob punt y mae'r sector cyhoeddus yn ei wario. Mae'n weledigaeth feiddgar ar gyfer cyflawni ein huchelgeisiau i Gymru. Ein huchelgais yw i Gymru fod yn ffyniannus ac yn ddiogel, yn iach ac yn weithgar, yn uchelgeisiol ac yn dysgu, ac yn unedig ac yn gysylltiedig.

Gan ddechrau gyda'r gyntaf o'r uchelgeisiau hynny, ‘ffyniannus a diogel’, ein nod yw economi Gymreig sy'n cynnig cyfleoedd ac sy’n mynd i'r afael ag anghydraddoldeb, gan ddarparu ffyniant unigol a chenedlaethol. Byddwn yn galluogi pobl i gyflawni eu huchelgais a gwella eu lles trwy gyflogaeth ddiogel a chynaliadwy.

Gan droi at yr ail uchelgais, ‘iach a gweithgar', rydym yn dymuno gwella iechyd a lles yng Nghymru ar gyfer unigolion, teuluoedd a chymunedau, gan ein helpu i gyflawni ein huchelgais o ffyniant i bawb, a chymryd camau sylweddol i newid ein dull o fod yn canolbwyntio ar drin i fod yn canolbwyntio ar atal.

Yn drydydd, rydym yn dymuno cael gwlad sy'n seiliedig ar y cysyniad o fod yn uchelgeisiol ac yn dysgu. Rydym am feithrin angerdd pawb i ddysgu trwy gydol eu bywydau, gan eu hysbrydoli gyda'r uchelgais i fod y gorau y gallant fod. Mae ar Gymru ffyniannus angen pobl greadigol, hynod fedrus iawn sy’n gallu addasu, felly addysg o ansawdd da o’r oed cynharaf fydd y sylfaen ar gyfer oes o ddysgu a chyflawni.

Yn olaf, Cymru unedig a chysylltiedig. Byddwn yn adeiladu cenedl lle mae pobl yn ymfalchïo yn eu cymunedau, yn hunaniaeth ac iaith Cymru, a'n lle yn y byd. Rydym yn adeiladu'r cysylltiadau hanfodol sy'n ei gwneud hi'n haws i bobl ddod at ei gilydd, er mwyn i'r economi dyfu, ac i ddod yn wlad hyderus sy’n gysurus â'i hun.

Dim ond trwy wneud cynnydd ym mhob un o’r meysydd hyn y byddwn yn gwireddu ein huchelgais o ffyniant i bawb. Fodd bynnag, roedd yna faterion oedd yn codi dro ar ôl tro: adegau neu sefyllfaoedd ym mywydau pobl pryd y gallai cymryd y camau cywir yn gynnar, yn aml wedi’u cydlynu ar draws gwasanaethau, newid rhagolygon unigolyn yn sylfaenol. Rydym wedi nodi pum maes blaenoriaeth—blynyddoedd cynnar, tai, gofal cymdeithasol, iechyd meddwl, a sgiliau a chyflogadwyedd—lle gallwn gael y cyfraniad mwyaf posib i'n ffyniant a'n llesiant hirdymor.

Dirprwy Lywydd, mae profiadau unigolyn yn ystod eu blynyddoedd cynnar, yn chwarae rhan arwyddocaol wrth lunio eu dyfodol, ac maent yn hollbwysig i'w siawns o fynd ymlaen i fyw bywyd iach, ffyniannus a bodlon. Sylfaen byw'n dda yw cartref fforddiadwy, o ansawdd da, sy'n dod ag ystod eang o fanteision i iechyd, dysgu a ffyniant. Mae gofal tosturiol, urddasol yn chwarae rhan hanfodol mewn cymunedau cryf, yn sicrhau y gall pobl fod yn iach ac yn annibynnol am gyfnod hwy, ac mae'n sector economaidd sylweddol yn ei hawl ei hun. Bydd un o bob pedwar o bobl yng Nghymru yn dioddef salwch meddwl ar ryw adeg yn eu bywydau, felly gall cael y driniaeth gywir yn gynnar, ynghyd â mwy o ymwybyddiaeth o gyflyrrau, atal effeithiau andwyol hirdymor mewn sawl achos.

Dirprwy Lywydd, pan fo sgiliau pobl yn well, mae ganddynt siawns well o gael gwaith teg, sicr sy’n rhoi boddhad iddynt. Ac os yw’r sylfaen sgiliau yng Nghymru yn gryf, mae gennym fwy o siawns o ddenu busnesau newydd a thyfu’r rhai sy'n bodoli eisoes er mwyn gwella ffyniant.

Byddwn yn gweithio gyda'n partneriaid i ddarparu gwasanaethau gwell, mwy di-dor i bawb yn y meysydd hyn. Uno gwasanaethau yw nod eithaf y llywodraeth ers tro byd. Er ein bod wedi cael peth llwyddiant nodedig, yng Nghymru mae gennym gyfle i wneud llawer mwy, a bydd nodi'r nifer bach hyn o feysydd yn caniatau i ni ganolbwyntio ein hegni ni ac eraill ar sbarduno gwelliannau mawr.

Yr hyn sy'n bwysig nawr yw gwneud i hyn ddigwydd. Byddwn yn rhoi ‘Ffyniant i Bawb’ wrth galon y Llywodraeth a bydd yn dylanwadu ar ein holl benderfyniadau. Byddwn yn cwblhau cyfres o gynlluniau dros yr wythnosau a'r misoedd nesaf, gan nodi'n fanwl sut y byddwn yn cyflawni ein huchelgeisiau. Bydd hyn yn cynnwys cynllun gweithredu economaidd cynhwysfawr, dan arweiniad Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet dros yr Economi a’r Seilwaith, gan drefnu adnoddau'r Llywodraeth mewn modd sy’n rhoi pwyslais ar seilwaith a thwf economaidd cynaliadwy a chynhwysol, yn unol â'r strategaeth.

Bydd iechyd yn parhau i fod yn flaenoriaeth allweddol i'r Llywodraeth hon, a byddwn yn cyhoeddi cynllun gweithredu ar gyfer iechyd y flwyddyn nesaf. Bydd y cynllun hwn, wrth gwrs, yn ymateb i'r adolygiad seneddol, ond bydd hefyd yn nodi sut y gallwn ni gyflawni ein huchelgeisiau iechyd cyhoeddus ehangach a sut y gallwn ni ddefnyddio’r holl gyfleoedd sydd ar gael i’r Llywodraeth newid y pwyslais o drin pobl pan fyddant yn sâl i helpu pobl i fwynhau gwell iechyd. Ac mewn addysg, bydd Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet dros Addysg yr wythnos nesaf yn cyhoeddi cynllun gweithredu newydd ar gyfer ysgolion, gan sicrhau y gall ein holl blant a’n pobl ifanc gyrraedd eu potensial.

Dirprwy Lywydd, mae ein rhaglen lywodraethu, ‘Symud Cymru Ymlaen’, yn nodi'r hyn y byddwn yn ei gyflawni ar gyfer pobl Cymru yn ystod y tymor hwn. Mae'r strategaeth genedlaethol hon, ‘Ffyniant i Bawb’, yn nodi sut y byddwn yn cyflawni hyn mewn modd mwy craff a manwl gan sbarduno cyflawni'r gwaith yn ystod y tymor hwn, ond gan osod y sylfeini tymor hwy ar gyfer Cymru fwy ffyniannus. Mae gennym ni weledigaeth uchelgeisiol ar gyfer dyfodol Cymru ac rydym ni’n cymryd camau pendant i'w gyflawni.

Thank you. Andrew R.T. Davies.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. First Minister, thank you for your statement this afternoon. One thing both you and I must be contributing to the local economy is buying our suits in the same shop. I notice we’ve got the same suit, but you extended to the waistcoat, you did. [Laughter.] I won’t expect any quips.

I welcome the statement. Obviously, it’s a progression on from the programme for government that the First Minister put down last year, and, as the First Minister says in the statement, to a point, how can you disagree with many of the points that are within the statement and the document that he’s brought forward, because a lot of it is the motherhood and apple pie that traditionally comes out with these types of announcements? I noticed in the closing remarks from the First Minister that, over the course of this term—I’m assuming—more meat will be put on the bones of some of these announcements by various Cabinet Secretary statements in their particular portfolio areas. So, I suppose it is fair to expect, obviously, to receive more information as the term progresses.

But at the start of the statement, the First Minister does identify the need for greater working in the public sector to make the public pound go that much further, and one of the things constituents get driven to the extremes over is how they can’t get various parts of the public services that are meant to be there to help them to work in their own interests—and I use health and social care as an example—and they come to their Assembly Members. I’m sure many AMs in this building have had the experience, and they just can’t work through why these services will not work to enable them to get the treatment or the services they need in the right place. So, what I would ask the First Minister, given the experience and that he was the First Minister that put in place the Williams commission, about local government reform, in the last Assembly, where a huge amount of effort was put by the then Government into reforming local government to try and make a better way of working, as they saw it at the time, and to work on the proposals of the Williams review, how he believes this Government will be any more successful in driving reform of the public services here in Wales that will create, as he says in his opening remarks in the statement, a more collaborative way of working to deliver public services across Wales that benefit the user as well as the service itself.

I also take the four points that he highlights here—a prosperous and secure Wales, which obviously no-one could disagree with—but actually, when you do look at the economic numbers over the last 18 years, because he has been part of the Government that has been in power here in Wales for the last 18 years, in that particular section if you look at the economy, for example, where we all remember the target that was set in the early years of devolution of a 90 per cent target for GVA, today that figure has shrunk to 71 per cent of GVA. How on earth can we have any confidence that this is not just another cut-and-paste exercise and that we will see the improvements we want to see in the economy of Wales to put us on the way to becoming the powerhouse I know Wales can be if it was afforded the right leadership.

We have heard this time and time again. We have had had four different economic strategies coming forward from the Welsh Government: ‘A Winning Wales’ in 1999; ‘Wales: a Vibrant Economy’ in 2005; ‘Economic renewal: a new direction’ in 2009; and now, we are going to get the new direction of travel from the Cabinet Secretary when he makes his statement around his vision for the economy. And yet, as I said, when it comes to GVA, for example, the figures are painfully stubborn, lagging well behind other parts of the United Kingdom. If you look at regional inequality when it comes to GVA, Anglesey, for example, stood at £13,411 of GVA. In the Gwent Valleys, it was £13,681. Yet in Cardiff and the Vale, for example, it stood at £22,783. Again, after 18 years, how can we have confidence that the Government will be able to move the needle so that these inequalities across Wales will be levelled out and you don’t get such great differences in our communities—north, mid and south Wales?

And then you look at our exports, for example, which the First Minister has talked about very often—about the exports and the importance of promoting Wales abroad. This is something we agree with him on, and we offer our wholehearted support. But if you look at exports to the United States, they have fallen by 13 per cent. If you look at exports to India, they have fallen by 22 per cent. If you look at Japan, they are down by 55 per cent. Again, how will the Government be reversing these negative numbers when we need, with the Brexit process, to be looking more globally at the trade we want to encourage so that our economy can pick up and real take-home pay can increase here in Wales?

Then, he talks of a healthy and active Wales in the second segment of the statement he has made today. We know that one in seven people in Wales are on a waiting list, regrettably. We heard over the summer recess that there has been a 400 per cent increase—and that is worth repeating: a 400 per cent increase—in people waiting 12 months or more for a procedure here in Wales. In the health board that the Welsh Government have direct control over—Betsi Cadwaladr—it has gone from zero to a 1,250 per cent increase in the people waiting 12 months or more. So, again, when you read the rhetoric in the document that’s launched in conjunction with the statement he has made today, how can we have confidence that the journey the Government is undertaking—this Government that he is leading today—will start tackling these huge inequalities in our society?

Then, the ‘Ambitious and Learning’ chapter of the document that he launched today, and the third part of four that he has addressed in his statement talks of, on page 15:

‘Still, there is too much variation in the attainment of school leavers’.

I see the Cabinet Secretary for Education agreeing with that and shaking her head in agreement. This is coming from a Government that has been responsible for education for 18 years—and I hear the Cabinet Secretary say, ‘But not me’. I take that point, in fairness, but I did believe that it was collective responsibility, and so it is one Government. How are we to believe that the bold and fine statements in this document will actually improve the attainment levels of children the length and breadth of Wales when, after 18 months—18 years, sorry, not 18 months—your own document says that there is, and I will repeat that again, still

‘too much variation in the attainment of school leavers’?

Finally, in the ‘United and Connected’ segment of the four that you identified in your statement, it is important that all parts of Wales feel that the Government is governing for them. Irrespective of whatever colour that Government might be, that is what we are celebrating at this moment in time: 20 years of devolution and 20 years of local decision-making. But it is a fact, historically, that some Governments that the Labour Party has led here have sought to drive nation building ahead of what is best for that particular part of Wales. I well remember, when I first came into this Assembly, in particular in the field of health, there was this drive to send patients from north Wales to south Wales for treatment, when there were good cross-border links already in place for north Wales patients to access that treatment in Manchester, in Liverpool, where the natural alliances and the natural flow of people over the years had built up. I do hope that the First Minister will support my call, in the devolution of responsibilities to whatever regions that require them to increase their economic footprint, but, above all, the delivery of public services, that this will be best delivered locally, rather than the centralised Cathays Park model that we have seen time and time again, historically, being looked at as the more favourable option when it comes to decision making here in Wales. There are many, many—

Are we winding up, please? You’ve had longer than the First Minister took to introduce the statement.

I will wind up.

Sorry. First Minister. Sorry.

I thank the leader of the opposition for his comments. I suppose the question he didn’t ask, which I’m sure will be asked, is, ‘What is the point of this document?’, which I understand. Well, he is right to say that the document itself will of course be fleshed out. The point of this document is it provides Members of this Assembly and the public with the framework within which decisions will be taken. Of course this will guide Ministers. All decisions that will be taken by Ministers will be measured according to what’s in this document, and the ambitions in this document and the five priority areas. As I mentioned in the statement itself, there will be further action plans that will be developed in the course of the next few months.

He talked about how to work across the public sector. We will, of course, be looking to introduce a local government Bill that will help to drive greater consistency in local government.

Coming to the point he made last, he is right to say that we wish, as a Government, to have decisions taken as close to people’s communities as possible, but we have found in the past—this drove the previous legislation that was not successful—that that leads to massive inconsistency, where some councils are unable to deliver services in the way they should. One council, Anglesey, was taken over because it failed so completely. At one point, six councils—six local education authorities—were in special measures over education. Now that can’t possibly be right. How, then, do we resolve that? The local government Bill will seek to do that in order to drive greater consistency, to help councils to deliver better, and to deliver consistent delivery across regional footprints. I don’t think anyone can pretend that we’ve had a robust system of local government for the past 20 years where every single council has always delivered to the level that people would expect. That clearly isn’t so. So, whilst it’s important have local decision making, we must guard against there arising, because of that, huge inconsistency, and the Bill will help to ensure that doesn’t happen.

He talks of economic statistics. We can trade this back and fore. As I said earlier on in First Minister’s questions, the unemployment rate now is 4.3 per cent. That is not the full figure; there are still too many people who lack security of employment. That I understand. But we’ve been successful in drawing investment into Wales that we’d never have had before. Aston Martin is one example. We’ve managed to save our airport; that would have closed, bluntly. In the days before devolution, nobody would have saved that; now it’s prospering. Our steel industry—we were able to act as strong advocates for our steel industry in order to make sure that those jobs remained in Wales. ProAct and ReAct: they were world-leading schemes, and they helped to keep people in jobs when the recession started to bite at its strongest—jobs that would otherwise have been lost.

He makes reference to the fact, and it’s there, that there are regional differences in GVA in Wales. One of the problems in the areas close to Cardiff is that so many people live in other counties but work in Cardiff. Now, I live in west Wales and the Valleys. Because I work in Cardiff, I’m counted as an economic drain—some people might say that’s true anyway, but an economic drain on west Wales and the Valleys, because I’m paid in Cardiff and I work in Cardiff, and that’s part of the problem. So many people come in to Cardiff to commute it depresses the GVA of the areas around it in a way that doesn’t really exist elsewhere in other areas that previously had Objective 1 status. That’s not the whole explanation, of course, because the other way of driving up GVA is simply skills. Now, one of the issues we get asked by potential investors is, ‘If we come to Wales, have your people got the skills that we need to be successful?’ And that increasingly can be answered positively. In the past, skills were not seen as important; it was low pay: come to Wales because pay levels are low. Well, those days are finished. Now we want to make sure we draw in investment on the basis that our skill levels are high.

But, of course, the great challenge for us is that our biggest export market is the European single market: 67 per cent of our exports go there. We can’t replace that. It’s impossible to replace that. And why would we want to replace it in any event? It’s an enormous market on our doorstep. The US cannot replace it; it’s smaller and it’s further away. Japan cannot replace it—again, further away and smaller. And so the challenges of Brexit—and we’ll come on to them; this will be a debate we’ll have, of course, for months and years in this Chamber—have to be examined through the telescope of ensuring the best possible access—participation in the single market, full unfettered access to the single market, but the easiest access to the single market that we can have for Welsh businesses, because that is their biggest market and cannot be replaced easily.

He mentioned ‘healthy and active’—there are challenges in every health service. England has just registered the highest number of people on waiting lists ever, and there are challenges that England faces as well. We know in Wales that we’ve seen improvements in some areas where waiting times have come down. In other areas, there is work to do. We’ve always acknowledged that. But we know that independent reports have shown that the health services across the UK are roughly on a par.

‘Ambitious and learning’—he mentioned that. Well, I’d argue that we see the difference now. Our GCSE results are the best ever. I was looking at the graph for GCSE results in the days before devolution, when less than half of young people got five A* to Cs at GCSE, and that figure now has climbed well beyond that. There’s been an enormous difference in that time. GCSE results are the best ever. We’re seeing reductions in the attainment gap. The pupil deprivation grant has made differences across Wales and that is something that is working for so many young people.

Finally, on ‘united and connected’—. Well, the answer I always give when people say, ‘Well, the Assembly’s in Cardiff; what does it mean for the north of Wales?’—I say, ‘Well, there are three Cabinet Secretaries in the Government who come from north Wales constituencies’. That is an enormous level of representation. There’s nobody in the UK Government from a north Wales constituency. But the voice of the north is very, very strong. It has to be. There are 60 of us here. At least a quarter of the Members, as I count it, come from the north. Of course that voice is strong; the same for rural Wales, the same for the mid and west of our country—a much stronger voice than ever existed in the days before devolution. I hear what he says about devolving to the regions. Again, I suspect the Secretary of State’s view and way of doing that is a little different to his. I think the Secretary of State’s view is, ‘Let’s bypass the Welsh Government and talk to councils directly’. That is not a view, obviously, that we share, even though we accept the principle of devolving as much as possible.

As a Member of this National Assembly, and being frequently on the receiving end of Government strategy documents—and they do come thick and fast—you’re often oscillating between a state of confusion and a state of despair. I have to say, having speed-read this document this afternoon, I feel a mixture of both. Confusion because I think I was under the misapprehension that this was going to be the date of the publication of the new economic strategy. I’m not the only one, because I notice Lee Waters tweeted yesterday:

‘Ahead of tomorrow's launch of a new WG economic strategy I've set out some thoughts in today's Western Mail’, and a very good article it was, too. And here we come to the despair, because there were better, more interesting, more original ideas in that single-page article than there are in this document.

What, actually, we’ve got here—. Remember that we were—[Interruption.] And if I was there, I’m sure the same would be true of Hefin David’s business briefing next week. ‘Ahead of the publication of the Welsh Government economic strategy’—you need to improve your internal communication at the very least.

What we’ve got, actually, is a kind of beefed-up version of ‘Taking Wales Forward’, published last year. It’s kind of ‘Taking Wales Forward’ on steroids, really, isn’t it? It’s gone up from 15 pages to 27, so nobody can accuse the Welsh Government of not making progress. That’s a 100 per cent increase in Welsh Government productivity.

We had four cross-cutting strategies. Now we have—what is it—five cross-cutting priorities, and four key themes and three action plans. You certainly can’t accuse them of not being comprehensive.

I don’t have the time to go after all of those, but I’d like to concentrate on one, and, seeing as we have been celebrating 20 years since 1997 and devolution, let’s concentrate on the economic, because that was meant to be the big advance, the devolution dividend. As has already been referred to, really, of course the progress there has been limited. Looking at the 18 bullet points—that’s all it is, if you’re looking for the contours of the new economic strategy, 18 bullet points across two pages—I’m trying to understand, therefore, what that tells us about the content of the new economic strategy. Maybe the First Minister will be able to help me. The first question is: is there a real acceptance of the scale of the challenge? I think there is on the backbench on the governing side. I’m not sure there is on the frontbench. Because, as was already referred to, in 1997, where were we? Seventy-four point one per cent of GVA per capita. Where are we now in the latest figures? Seventy one per cent. We’ve gone backwards. We were seventh overall, by the way, in terms of the 12 standard UK economic regions. Even on the Welsh Government’s favourite economic indicator, which is gross disposable household income per head, we’ve also gone backwards—87.8 per cent to 85.3 per cent. So, is there an acceptance of the scale of the challenge? The First Minister, in his remarks earlier this afternoon, said that in the 1990s we were a country that young people wanted to leave. Well, actually, we saw a report over the summer from the Resolution Foundation showing that Wales has a brain drain. More graduates lost to Wales between 2016—a net loss of over 20,000 graduates during that period. We’re tenth of the 12 UK standard regions in terms of the extent of graduate loss.

Secondly, are there going to be targets? We’ve had appallingly poor progress. How can we actually measure whether we’re going to have a better record of delivery in the future? Because, as Chris Kelsey said, there are few details and few specific targets in this strategy. And where is the desire, the appetite—which I do sense, to be fair, on the Labour back benches—for radical change in terms of strategy? We’ve basically followed the same strategy for 40, 50 years, which is, essentially, reliant on foreign direct investment. That’s it. We’ve ploughed that furrow. And where has it got us? Where is the appetite in these 18 bullet points for accepting that that strategy will not serve us well in the future, therefore we need radical new ideas?

Finally, on the last day of term, the Cabinet Secretary said that you were going to publish this cross-cutting strategy and then there would be an extensive stakeholder engagement programme. I think that’s jargon for ‘talking to people’. Well, I did a little bit of talking over the weekend, because I wanted to know what was going to be in this economic strategy that didn’t appear, and I spoke to some leading business people that I know and will be known to many people here; I spoke to some leading Welsh economists. Not one of them knew what was going to be in the economic strategy or in the bullet points because nobody from the Welsh Government had spoken to them. So, on what basis have you come up with these 18 bullet points? Who have you spoken to? Because I fear that what we’ll get when we finally see the economic action plan is, once again, an empty vessel with no substance.

Well, let me try to assist the Member in his confusion and lift him from his despair. First of all, I thank him for his acknowledgement of the consistency that exists between the two documents that he’s referred to. They’re meant to be consistent. They’re meant to illustrate a common direction.

Now, the first thing that he referred to was, he described, appallingly poor economic performance—not so. He also said that, effectively, for the last 50 years, economic strategy had been the same—again, not so. Because I well remember in the 1990s—the late 1980s and the 1990s—the Government of the day decided that the way to, as they saw it, relieve unemployment in Wales was to reduce employment in well-paid jobs like steel and coal and replace them with badly paid jobs in unskilled sectors. That’s when our GDP started to slide, because, although unemployment seemed to be lower or getting lower, people’s wage rates were getting lower as well. We’ve rejected that. We don’t accept that Wales’s economic model is based on being the lowest-wage economy in western Europe. That’s exactly what was happening in the late 1990s particularly. We made sure that we went after high quality investment. We have Wylfa B, we have Surf Snowdonia, we have Airbus, we have Raytheon, and Cardiff Airport—we saved that, that would have closed—Aston Martin, CGI; the list goes on. We have attracted investment into Wales at a skill level that would have been unthought of in the 1990s. In time, that will see the raising of GDHI, it will see more money into people’s pockets, and that is something that we are not going to change.

He expressed regret at a reliance on foreign direct investment. We’re not going to be an autarky, we understand that. Foreign direct investment will be hugely important for us in the future; the US is by far our biggest investor. Yes—though he didn’t make the point, I suspect he wanted to make this point—we want to make sure we encourage more young, local entrepreneurs. And we see there are more businesses in Wales now that are being set up and are successful than before. I meet with young people and they are encouraged in a way now that they never were many years ago, when I was the same age as them, and they do set up in business, they have the confidence to do it, they have the confidence to grow and to work with others. I see our universities, who for a long time didn’t work with business, they didn’t see it as part of their remit—. They now are able to work with their talented graduates and researchers to set up spin-off businesses, and we see them around Swansea and around Cardiff—not exclusively, but particularly there.

Of course, we need to make sure that we are flexible, and, yes, if it’s the case we’ve produced a number of economic plans over the years, I plead guilty to that; that’s because circumstances change. The biggest challenge that we faced was the crash of 2008. That was an enormous challenge for every single economy in the developing world. With ProAct and ReAct, we made sure (a) that people kept their jobs, and (b) they were trained whilst they were in those jobs. Otherwise, unemployment would have been a lot, lot higher. We work with our businesses in order to deliver the best for our people. Now, in time, of course, he’ll have the opportunity to look at the economic action plan. I’m sure he will joust and cross swords with the Cabinet Secretary. But when it comes to comparing Wales now to what Wales was like in the 1990s—a country with high unemployment, low prospects, very low wages, a deliberate policy to bring in low-skill, low-wage jobs—we’ve come a long way since then, and we intend to go a lot further.

As usual, by the time I get my opportunity in these statements, almost every decent point has been made, and Adam Price has well said that—

I could say, ‘We’ll move on, then’.

Well, you could. I’m sure you won’t, Deputy Presiding Officer, being a fair-minded president of the Assembly. But, as Adam Price has effectively pointed out, as the document itself is merely a repetition and a rehash of material that’s been well cooked before, a repetitious criticism of it, perhaps, may not be totally out of place. When I used to go to Sunday school as a small boy, one of my favourite hymns was ‘Tell me the old, old story’, and, of course, that is what we’ve got here. I think the First Minister has, in a sense, been kind enough to admit that that is the case. Because when I went through this document and asked, ‘What’s new?’, and went through ‘Taking Wales Forward’, I struggled to find anything that was new at all. And, of course, we can all laugh at the various platitudes that are in it; all governments produce documents of this kind. I’m far from saying that the Welsh Government is responsible for everything that’s wrong with Wales and has totally failed in the course of the last 20 years, but the main point which arises, I think, from our experience of the last 20 years, is that the Welsh Government’s failure, relative to what’s been going on elsewhere in the United Kingdom and the rest of the world, is very apparent indeed. And we’ve had the various statistics bandied around by the leader of the Welsh Conservatives and by Adam Price a moment ago. It is true that the Welsh people are poorer today, relatively, than they have been for many, many years. It’s correct, as the First Minister said, that, to an extent, because of industrial change—coal and steel were well-paid jobs and those industries could not be sustained at the levels that they used to employ—we haven’t managed to attract into Wales the higher-paid jobs that should have replaced them, and that’s the key challenge for the years ahead.

The only thing that really matters in this document is the bit about building an entrepreneurial culture, because if we can’t raise the capacity of the Welsh economy to create wealth, we can’t generate the tax revenue that pays for all the public services that are the good things that we want to see and that are well set out in the rest of the document. Here, I don’t think that the Welsh Government’s story is impressive at all. Most recently, we’ve seen the fiasco over the Circuit of Wales. Here was a massive private sector project that, had it been given the go-ahead, would have brought in a very substantial amount of capital for that particular enterprise, but on the back of that, much else might have been attracted. The approach of the Welsh Government on that was so myopic I could hardly believe it, as we’ve been led up that path for the last year, or 18 months, only to be dropped off the edge of a cliff into the drain the First Minister referred to in his remarks a moment ago. That is symptomatic of the problem: a lack of vision in the Welsh Government, as Adam Price has passionately pointed out.

I can’t help reflecting, as I have reflected previously, on what’s going on 60 miles away from Cardiff to the east with James Dyson’s technology park. Why aren’t we attracting such things to Wales? It’s because the attitude of the Welsh Government is wrong. For the future, it should realise that governments can’t create an entrepreneurial culture. The Government is part of the problem here. If Wales is to become more competitive, then the regulatory burden has to become more proportionate; the tax burden has to become more proportionate. Here we do have an opportunity, and here the document is totally silent. Now that we’re getting these tax-raising and tax-varying powers, what we should be seeking to do is to make Wales more attractive than other parts of the United Kingdom to help to redress the balance that we’ve inherited from the past and the mistakes of governments of all parties, whether it be at the UK level or, indeed, here in Cardiff. On business rates, again, why is there no long-term thinking about how we can lift this burden, which is such a block upon new businesses—small businesses—getting off the ground in the first place, because the cost of premises is artificially increased by a business rates system that is antiquated and inappropriate for the modern world?

Brexit does offer challenges, obviously, and the First Minister is always talking about the challenges. What about the opportunities? The First Minister is an accomplished advocate. He defends the indefensible in a very persuasive way very frequently in this Chamber. He is an advocate for Wales in other parts of the world. But his constant jeremiads about how it’s the end of the world if we leave the single market—. The single market is not the be-all and end-all. There is no single market, actually, anyway, because as James Dyson himself—who sells manufactured goods within the European Union—pointed out only the other day, there’s a sequence of segmented markets. Yes, there is a single system of regulation, very often, and that is often misused to the disadvantage of industry. But if the First Minister could offer some sort of ray of sunshine for the future and hope and optimism for exports, not only to the European Union, but also to the rest of the world—. Of course, as he rightly says, we export more from Wales to the European Union than other parts of the United Kingdom and we’re not going to replace that overnight. We’re not going to have to replace it overnight. Exchange rate movements in the last year have more than offset any putative increase in tariffs that are likely to be imposed if there’s no deal with the EU. Real businesses in the real world are nimble and flexible. They have to be or they don’t survive, and this is the problem with Government today. It is not nimble, it is not flexible, it has no real vision for the future, and that’s why this offers us no more than any of the previous documents that it adds to—the huge pile that no doubt we’ll be adding to on an annual basis in the future.

Let’s try and deconstruct a stream of consciousness. Well, let’s start with the industrial change that he said occurred, under his watch, actually, a lot of it. In a sensible country it would have been understood that there were going to be job losses in coal and steel. Steel employed a lot of people, probably more than was needed. But in a sensible country, plans would have been laid out to re-employ people in good jobs, but that’s not what happened. What happened was that people were laid off in their thousands on a single day and told, ‘That’s it, there’s no job for you’. That’s why unemployment went up and that’s why our GDP declined, because of that double whammy. That wasn’t to do with industrial change on its own. That was a deliberate policy by a Government that didn’t care if people were made redundant and where they went after that.

I agree with him about the need to create an entrepreneurial culture and that’s what the document shows. But it’s hugely important—he mentioned the Circuit of Wales—that we don’t repeat the mistakes of the past. You know, LG was one of the greatest mistakes that the WDA actually—. They’d had a good track record until then, but it was one of the greatest mistakes, in hindsight, that happened. And we’ve got to be very careful about what we support and what we don’t.

He talks about what’s happening 60 miles to the east with James Dyson, of course. His argument about the EU seems to be about the regulation of vacuum cleaners, as far as I can tell. It quite clearly is a single market. Where does he manufacture? He doesn’t manufacture in the UK does he? So, there are issues there. If he is that patriotic, perhaps he should base everything that he does within the UK itself.

With regard to the regulatory burden that he talks about, what is it? If he says there is a regulatory burden, it would be interesting to know where he sees those burdens are, because he gives no examples. He talks about a tax burden. He gives an example of business rates. We are, of course, looking at how we can put in place a permanent system of relief in terms of small business rates. We are looking at how that can be done with a view to implementing that. He says that our attitude is wrong. Well, I can only refer—. I could go through a whole list of things, but I will refer him to the words that were used by Aston Martin. They came to Wales not because there was more money on the table but because of the pride and professionalism of the Welsh Government. That’s why they came to Wales and that can be repeated up and down Wales in terms of the jobs we have brought to Wales.

He talks of Brexit. He recognises there are challenges. Indeed, there are challenges that Brexit brings. The single market undoubtedly does exist, because it employs a common tariff, and as a result of that, in order to get into that market, we all have to pay the tariffs or find a way of agreement to avoid those tariffs being paid. And besides, if you have tariffs, you have a hard border in Ireland. There’s no avoiding it, because you cannot have a system of tariffs and then say, ‘Incidentally, we have a land border with the EU where there are no customs controls at all and no tariffs are payable.’ So, he doesn’t want a hard border—fine, I accept that—but you can’t have tariffs and not have a hard border; the two run together with all the consequences—tragic consequences, actually—that that might potentially bring.

If I can just deconstruct an argument he used as well early on. He said, ‘Well, it doesn’t matter about tariffs because the exchange rate has resolved that issue’. Well, of course, the drop in the pound means that goods from the European Union are now more expensive in the UK. Put tariffs on top of that and they’re even more expensive and they’re paid for by the consumer. One of the things I could never work out in the conversations I had with David Davis some months ago was that he kept on saying, ‘Well, tariffs can provide us with a pot of money that we can use to support business.’ Yes, but they’re paid by the consumer. It’s Joe Public that pays the tariffs, not businesses. Ultimately, the cost is passed on to those who buy the product that carries the tariff upon it. So, it’s hard to see how exchange rates can overcome the problem if tariffs are imposed. Surely we want to see a world where, instead of seeing the UK taking a market of 400 million people and wanting to see tariffs imposed on its goods going into the market—surely nobody wants to see that happening. So, there’s much about what he said that I cannot accept. He says that I defend the indefensible. I have to say to him I’m more than happy today to defend and advocate the very defensible.

I’d like to thank Adam Price for the lovely, kind words. I’m sure they’ll do me the absolute world of good; much appreciated. But I think, actually, it’s something to be celebrated, the freedom of expression on these Labour benches. We have been actively encouraged by the Government to have an input into what they are trying to do, and I’ve never been so encouraged to have a voice as an elected politician.

With that in mind, I’m going to have my voice. I’ve got a couple of questions with regard to the national strategy. First of all, page 25 with regard to social care: it says that the Welsh Government plans to invest in a new innovative care delivery model in the community. Would the First Minister directly answer this question? [Interruption.] Is he trying to find the document? I quote page 25:

‘invest in a new innovative care delivery model in the community’.

Would the First Minister consider the public sector creating care homes from either existing buildings or new buildings, and allowing small local not-for-profit operators to run them, therefore bringing a foundational focus to social care in our communities?

With regard to planning, on page 5 it says

‘The right planning system is critical to delivering our objectives in this strategy’.

I would argue that in the current planning system, in spite of the Planning (Wales) Act 2015 that welcomed the creation of strategic development plans that are yet to operationalise, local development plans are a manifestation of regional inequality; they are broken. We see through LDPs the overdevelopment of the south, particularly in my area along the M4 corridor, and the underdevelopment and depopulation of the north. I would argue that LDPs are totally beholden to what is viable, and by viable we mean profitable. We need to look at that and how we change that. And I was encouraged by page 24 of the document, which said that the Welsh Government will

‘unlock the potential of SMEs to build homes’.

That is a very encouraging action, but one of the things that will help SMEs is the remediation of brownfield sites. Would the Welsh Government therefore consider revisiting a policy of providing support for remediation, which would enable SMEs to develop brownfield sites, particularly in the northern areas of the areas that I represent?

And finally, a regional approach is very welcome, particularly if it’s a place-based approach, and I look forward to seeing how that may be done in the economic plan that is forthcoming. What will those regional footprints be and has the First Minister got the confidence that local government has not just the structure, but also the skills and knowledge to deliver local economic strategies? Yes, the local government Bill will develop structure, but can he be confident that skills and knowledge will also be developed alongside that, particularly with regard to procurement, for example?

First of all, the Member’s absolutely right to say that we do encourage that kind of thinking. As he knows, we’ve discussed many times how important it is to be able to harness new ideas from outside Government, and I very much welcome the comments that he made. He asked me a direct question and the answer is ‘yes’. We want to consider all potential structures in terms of running care homes, and that’s an idea that certainly can be looked at to see how viable that is.

In terms of LDPs, he is right to say that LDPs on their own are no longer sufficient. Regional planning has to become much stronger, and that is something that we intend to continue to progress with as part of the local government Bill. He’s absolutely right to say that we live in a world where, in reality, local government boundaries are not actually respected by planners, or by nature, or by geography, and it means that where one particular local authority will look at its LDP purely in the context of what happens in its own area, there can often be a knock-on effect elsewhere. And so, seeing regional planning in the future will be hugely important. The regional footprints issue is something that will be looked at as part of the local government Bill. We want to encourage local authorities to work together in order to put in place regional planning structures.

He asks me the question: do I have confidence that every local authority is able to deliver in terms of local economic strategies? The answer to that question is: no, they can’t on their own. That’s where they need to work together. I don’t believe that there’s sufficient depth in every single local authority in Wales to develop the kind of economic strategy that’s needed, but by working together on a regional footprint, that depth can be created. And, of course, we know that, again, economies don’t respect local government boundaries. It’s hugely important that Heads of the Valleys authorities can work together for the common good, rather than thinking, ‘We’re only going to look at what happens in our own area.’ We know the world doesn’t work that way. And that is something that we’re keen to do. I know that the Cabinet Secretary has worked very closely with local government leaders, and that message is understood. We can’t carry on in a way that sees Wales as 22 different areas that operate almost entirely independently of each other, and that’s why regional planning will become more important as part of that Bill.

Finally, he mentions brownfield sites. Yes, we want to see more remediation, but there’s a substantial cost to this. I know of at least one example that I dealt with when I was Minister for the environment, where just on one small site the remediation cost was £20 million. That was then, 10 years ago, because the original owners—the business no longer existed. And as a result of that, the liability ends up in the hands of the Welsh Government. It’s the same with opencast. Now, there are real issues with the remediation of opencast sites, which some of us in this Chamber will be more than familiar with, and what happens if the business that owns the site no longer exists—it goes into receivership or disappears completely. And so, these are issues that we wrestle with, but in principle, of course, we want to see more brownfield sites remediated, but we have to do that on the basis of an understanding that there is a limit of what we can afford to pay for them in the financial year.

First Minister, can I genuinely welcome the attempt to try and join up the different areas of Government activity? Governments are often criticised for silo thinking, and I think the Government deserves some credit in this document at the way that it’s tried to bring together the different strands of its programme and strategy. And I look forward, when the action plans are published, to take forward the detail of this, to seeing how that will work in practice.

The one area in particular I wanted to focus on was around automation, which does cut across a range of portfolios and areas, and will profoundly impact everything that we do. And I sense that the Government at all levels is not quite ready for the storm that is being unleashed around us. We’ve already seen the impact of the closure of the Tesco call centre in Cardiff and its move to Dundee, which I’m told was almost entirely motivated by considerations around automation. There is an acknowledgement in the strategy that the best defence will be people with the ability to work better and smarter than machines and able to solve the problems that they can’t. And, of course, skills is an important part of dealing with automation. But that does miss out the opportunities as well.

Yes, it’s right—the Bank of England formula suggests that some 700,000 jobs in Wales could be under threat, but if we harness automation, there are opportunities for us too, in terms of the manufacture, the design and the roll-out of the robotics. I had a fascinating visit to the College of Engineering at Swansea University last Friday, where there is very innovative work taking place in Wales on this agenda, and a visit the week before to EBS Automation Ltd in Dafen, who are doing some remarkable work. So, there is a positive story to tell, but the point the First Minister made just a moment ago was striking, in criticising the failure of previous Governments to respond to the anticipated job losses from the coal and steel industries in the 1980s, and the failure to plan for what they knew was likely to be an adjustment in the economy. And I think we face a similar generational shift. We know there are going to be significant disruptions to the way we organise public services and the economy, and we must get ready for it, and it must be across all Government. And I hope that he will lead that work in Wales.

The Member’s absolutely right. The big change, I think, that’s occurred in the past few years is the rapidity of change. It wouldn’t have been difficult to predict in the 1970s that coal—particularly coal—was on a trajectory downwards. I mean, no-one could have predicted the sudden job losses that occurred, but that had been the trend since 1914. What we see now is a rapidity in change that just would have been unthought of in the 1970s. Ten years ago, the pressures on the retail sector were not what they are now, in terms of competition from online sources, and that is something that the retail sector has had to adjust very painfully to, in terms of doing. Call centres are under pressure now in a way that they weren’t 10, 12 years ago, as technology has improved. The challenge for us, and other Governments, is to make sure that if job losses occur in those areas, others are created elsewhere, obviously, and that’s something we’re very much aware of.

One of the industries where we are genuinely world leaders is insurance—not just in terms of individual companies, but comparison websites. One of the challenges that insurers face is driverless cars—cars that are able to drive themselves. What does that mean in terms of assessing insurance risk? How do you calculate the premium? Who has liability? But these are things that are being looked at now, because we know that, in 10 years’ time—probably quicker than that—this will be a real issue. So, he’s absolutely right to say that there are challenges there, probably that are not even foreseen yet, which have to be recognised as quickly as possible—some that seem remote, but will be upon us in no time. We’re very much up for that challenge, to make sure that, where we see change occurring, we know that Wales is ready for that change, and we upskill our people, in order to make sure that they’re able to take advantage of those changes, in what is a rapidly changing world.

Like Adam Price, I also did some speed reading—I managed to read the document during one of the questions in First Minister’s questions earlier. And there were points in the document that I was pleased to see there. But I am disappointed that, today, we haven’t seen a comprehensive economic strategy. Like other Members across this Chamber, of all parties, that’s what I was expecting. But can I ask why there has been a delay in receiving this document? In July, you committed that we would see the document before the end of term. And can I ask you to provide a specific date of when we will see the specific actions for ‘prosperous and secure’ and the economic strategy? And when we do see that document, will that be a comprehensive document?

In the preparation of this strategy, can I ask how has the Welsh Government ensured that its economic policies complement the UK Government’s industrial strategy? You’ll also be aware that the industrial strategy puts great emphasis on addressing the regional disparity in the economic prosperity and skills shortages that exist across the UK. Now, I very much welcome in the document today—I note that you intend to target intervention to the economic needs of each region. That’s something I very much welcome, and I also welcome the reference that you will focus on each region’s strengths—that’s to be welcomed as well. So, how will the Government’s strategy specifically address these issues, to drive increases in productivity in north and mid Wales in particular? And can I ask in that regard what consideration the Government has given to developing an economic strategy for mid Wales in particular, and a mid Wales growth deal?

Also, there appears to be less of a focus on encouraging inward investment in this strategy. Will you, First Minister, confirm that your Government is moving away from inward investment as a key pillar of the Welsh Government’s approach to developing the economy of Wales? And if so, how will the strategy ensure that Wales takes advantage of the investment and export opportunities that will arise as a result of Brexit, in boosting trade links with other partners from all over the world?

A number of questions there, and specific actions, particularly, were asked about. First things first: the economic action plan will be published during the course of the autumn and that will be available for Members to see.

The UK Government’s industrial strategy is unclear. It’s not the most detailed strategy. We look forward to seeing that develop over time. The big question that’s not answered over that and the shared prosperity fund is how it’ll mesh with the work of devolved Governments. A shared prosperity fund will not work if the UK Government decides its priorities alone. It won’t mesh properly with what’s happening in Wales and what’s happening in Scotland. We wait to see how that will work out.

He talks about the mid Wales growth deal—that’s something, of course, that we would want to look at over the course of the development of this document and beyond. We’re not moving away from inward investment. Inward investment is hugely important to the Welsh economy and, in keeping with that, I have, for some months, been looking at how we can boost our overseas presence given the fact that Brexit is happening. Where else can we look? What new markets can we look at? Where should we put Welsh Government officials working, usually, with officials in what was UK Trade and Investment in offices around the world? This work is important to raise Wales’s profile. We understand that and that work is ongoing, but he’s right to say that raising Wales’s profile is massively important—we know this—in terms of attracting investment. I’d argue that we’ve done that. We’ve had the investment from Qatar Airways coming in, of course, to the airport, along with many, many others from other countries, and it’s hugely important that momentum continues in the future so that the success we’ve had over the next few years is replicated when it comes to attracting foreign direct investment.

First Minister, I’d like to welcome the commitment in the national strategy to a new regionally focused model of economic development. I think that’s particularly important in the face of Brexit and the loss of regional funding that we’ll experience as a result of that. However, in recent announcements on the development of a network of regional growth hubs, these seem to be primarily located in the southernmost reaches of our Valleys—places like Pontypridd, Treforest and Caerphilly. So, my question is: how will the new regional focus assist the economic development of the northernmost reaches of our Valleys—places where we know that poverty, worklessness and ill health remain stubbornly high?

Secondly, in addition, as a passionate advocate for the foundational economy, I’m pleased to note the strategy’s mention of support for local businesses and the diversification of supply chains. What additional information can you give on how the Welsh Government will enable small businesses to grow and flourish, to fill the missing middle and create sustainable, good-quality and, above all, local employment?

First of all, the issue of where growth hubs can be in the northern part of the Valleys is a matter that’s being considered by the Valleys taskforce. So, that is not lost; it’s something that’s still in development. We understand the importance of being able to look at growth hubs, especially around the Heads of the Valleys road, which we know has been hugely important to unlocking economic development in Merthyr, as one example, but other communities as well.

Secondly, of course, we know that more and more people are self-employed, so them being able to access advice is hugely important. We have in place, of course, a suite of measures that are able to assist people to look for financial support where that’s appropriate, to look for advice where that’s appropriate, and one example of that is making sure that people can access fast broadband speeds. I’ve said this before in the Chamber: broadband in the twenty-first century is the equivalent of the railway lines in the nineteenth. If you’re connected, then you’re connected to the world and that’s why, of course, we’ve invested so much money in Superfast Cymru: to bring superfast broadband to so many communities that otherwise would never have it—some urban, some rural communities. We know that it’s hugely important that our communities are connected, because it means that people can set up businesses there rather than having to move down to the southern part of south Wales in order to access the speeds that they need.

Thank you very much, First Minister, and apologies to those Members who we couldn’t call in that statement.