2. Will the Cabinet Secretary make a statement on train services following Transport for Wales's public apology for shortcomings in services? 236

Yes. Storm Callum, autumn conditions and the dreadful quality of the rolling stock we inherited from Arriva Trains Wales have impacted the operation of rail services. Transport for Wales is implementing a recovery plan and passengers will see consequential service improvements each day over the next few weeks.

Maybe in your subsequent answer, you might want to join with Transport for Wales in apologising for the inconvenience that has been caused to travellers over the past few weeks. I personally thought the First Minister was hugely defensive yesterday when criticism was put to him of the situation on Wales's railways, and many thousands of passengers have suffered, failing to get to work or failing to get from work. My own daughter was standing on a platform at Aberystwyth on Sunday afternoon waiting for the train, which was on time, according to the sign—it just didn't turn up. Now, anybody who knows Aberystwyth station, you've got pretty good warning that that train's not coming. But the train didn't arrive. This isn't acceptable. As I say, I thought the First Minister was very defensive in saying, 'We didn't promise to transform rail in a month.' Well, we weren't criticising Government for not transforming rail within a month. The point that was being made was that things had gone backwards at quite a rate over a matter of weeks. And it's not too much, I don't think, to expect Welsh Government to be a little bit contrite and to say, 'Yes, sorry. Things aren't really going as they can.'

Now, I've learnt a bit over the past few days in terms of reasons that have been given for so many trains being taken out of service. I had to read it twice—I thought it was a problem with flat tyres. I know enough about trains that it wasn't that, but flat wheels is a problem that comes from trains sliding on leaves and so on. So, yes, we recognise that there are problems and we recognise also, I guess, that there would be teething problems. I support, in principle, having Transport for Wales, so this isn't somehow wishing Government to fail, because we want a better rail service. But can you this afternoon, perhaps accompanied with that apology from Welsh Government to Welsh passengers, tell us what kind of timescale we should be working to now when people can expect that the train service will get back to normal, and, considering people wanted a better service and were looking forward to seeing the end of the last franchise so that we could start a new chapter, give us the assurances that we need today?

The Deputy Presiding Officer (Ann Jones) took the Chair.

Can I thank the Member for his question? First of all, he makes the assertion that services have gone backwards. In fact, despite the recent difficulties, this first four-week period of the operation of the new franchise and the new contract has seen higher levels of performance than the equivalent period last year, including punctuality. Now, some Conservatives are, I hear, laughing. The fact of the matter is that the previous contract was not fit for purpose.

The Member is right to identify flattened wheels. Now, what we have discovered, because you ask for the reasons, and I think it is absolutely right that passengers understand the reasons for problems with rail services—. Transport for Wales have discovered that, unfortunately, an ageing fleet of trains that they have inherited—an appalling fleet of trains—did not see investment made, which therefore led to a lack of modern technology being adopted on the rolling stock, and this includes, importantly, wheel slide protection. Wheel slide protection is what prevents services from being cancelled or postponed in autumn periods, and the trains were not given the wheel slide protection. Why? Because market forces—the form of capitalism we operate—led to the operator deciding that it would rather have profits than put wheel slide protection on the trains. That will stop. That will stop. By next autumn, every train that Transport for Wales operates will get wheel slide protection.

Now, in addition, I've asked for a full appraisal of other reasons why we have seen the disruption on the Wales and borders network in recent days. I'll be assessing whether it was just down to the wheels, or whether there was another contributing factor, such as more leaves on the line than we have found, or whether it was because the trains were poorly maintained in the lead-up to the transfer of the franchise to Transport for Wales. We know that the inheritance of the fleet of trains did not suit passengers as it should have done—the trains themselves are appalling—and these will be replaced in just a matter of months. The first of the replacement trains will be coming on track—the Vivarail trains, the Geralds and the 769s will all be delivered next year. Every pacer will be removed next year, and as I said, by autumn of next year every single train will have wheel slide protection fitted.

I have to say as well, Deputy Presiding Officer, that I've had reports of dead rats in inspection pits at the point when the franchise was handed over. This is what Transport for Wales have been dealing with, and Transport for Wales, to their credit, have managed the transfer of the rail services, I think, of course during an incredibly difficult time, with unprecedented floods—the worst floods in some parts for 30 years.

I have to say, Cabinet Secretary, I have been quite complimentary of the Welsh Government with regard to its rail franchise. I think I'm on record as saying you've been heroically ambitious with regard to the rail franchise, but in doing so you have, of course, set a high bar, and in doing that you have set expectations of passengers. Now, in the summer, you said that in the coming weeks you will deliver groundbreaking transformation, and we're now, of course, in month 2 of the new rail franchise, and Transport for Wales. And where are we now? We've had the statement from Transport for Wales last night to AMs, which was, I think, appreciated, and I welcome that. It talks about the effects of storm Callum, but I have to say, the effects of storm Callum happened right across the UK, and it seems that other areas of the country have bounced back, but we haven't here in Wales. The update provided no explanation about why priorities are being taken in the way they have, so I'm not so much asking you about why this has happened, but why they have made the priorities that they have.

I had a Facebook comment last night off a Dawn Jones, who said, 'Please help'. Her daughter goes from Newtown to Wrexham college and she's stuck, she can't go for her education. She's pointing out that the service also picks up students in Newtown and Welshpool to go to Shrewsbury college. Well, the 08:40 from Aberystwyth to Shrewsbury last week was cancelled four times out of five—that's an 80 per cent cancellation rate. If you look at the cancellation rate on the Valleys lines, it's less than 1 per cent. The difficulties for passengers are greater where infrequent services are cancelled than where services are frequent, and this is the issue here. So, can I ask you a series of questions around priorities?

No, you can ask a question—a question, not a series. 

What is the rationale for preventing cancellations on Valley lines by cancelling services in other areas, which is what is effectively happening? Does Transport for Wales's service contract include a different performance requirement for the Valley lines, and why is it that the Cardiff Bay service is regarded as a higher priority of use per unit, when Cardiff Bus operates a frequent high-capacity bus from Cardiff Central station to Cardiff Bay? When Transport for Wales, each day, makes its planned cancellations, does it take into account the social and economic impact of those issues as well, such as on Betws-y-Coed and Tenby, which have year-on-year tourism, or in Newtown and Welshpool, where students go to college on an infrequent service?

So, can I ask, finally: will Transport for Wales modify its criteria for prioritising cancellations to ensure that the burden is spread more equally than it is now?

Can I thank the Member for his question and assure him that there is no loss of ambition as far as the Transport for Wales rail franchise is concerned. There still will be £800 million spent on new rolling stock, £194 million on station investment—contrast that with just £600,000 that was spent over the last 15 years—an extra 285 services, 600 new jobs, a 25 per cent reduction in carbon emissions, new services from next spring, replacement rolling stock from next spring. Change is coming, but I do accept that there is frustration amongst passengers and passenger groups. As I said, there have been unprecedented weather conditions, and the Member is right that other rail services might not have suffered quite so badly, but that's because, probably, other rail services had the investment that Arriva Trains Wales rolling stock should have had. And, as I've said previously, the wheel sliding protection was not there to prevent trains from being taken off line. 

There are no arbitrary prioritised cancellations of certain services over others. The prioritisation is based on a number of factors, including the availability of bus replacement services. However, I am conscious of the need to assure people that fair play is being applied across Wales and across all services. I will seek to have Transport for Wales write to all Members with the rationale for prioritising service cancellations, and replacement services as well. 

The only thing I want to add, because I'm not going to repeat everything, is that there is an urgency to get to the bottom of what went wrong, and you've identified a few issues. The urgency is that we don't end up in a situation where the people who have used that service, and the people we were hoping would use that service, don't get put off and disillusioned, so that the numbers are negatively and significantly affected in an irreversible manner, because we really want people to use the train services that we have, and you have, invested in and secured agreement to deliver.

I am pleased that the company have apologised, and I am personally really sorry that people have been inconvenienced right across my region, as I'm sure you are, Cabinet Secretary. And I suppose that the key question is here—. I understand that, in some places, like Blaenau Ffestiniog to Llandudno, there are replacement bus services operating. Will those replacement bus services be adequate to replace the missing train services, so that people can move around the region in a way that they were hoping they could?

Well, I think Joyce Watson touches on a very important point concerning the integration of various forms of public transport. Joyce talks about the need to ensure that replacement bus services are adequate. Well, I think once I'm able to outline reform to public local bus services, and proposals for future legislation, Members will be able to appreciate how we'll go about better integrating rail and bus services to ensure that end-to-end points are as seamless as they can possibly—end-to-end travel is as seamless as it can possibly be.

I should just point out again that the previous contract was let on the basis of zero passenger growth over a 15-year period, and so, consequently, at the point that we inherited an abysmal fleet of trains, trains were already overstretched and over capacity. During the autumn months, when trains have been damaged—when the wheel sets have been damaged—that has contributed to an exacerbation of capacity issues. It’s something that Transport for Wales are dealing with. They’ve put in train now a programme of remedial works. We’re looking at whether additional mitigation options, such as the use of wheel lathes outside of Wales, can be utilised to address the current maintenance backlog.

But I would, again, just say that storm Callum was unprecedented in many parts of Wales and I think it'd be remiss of me not to put on record my thanks to staff on the network who kept as many services running as possible and, in many cases, were involved in some scary incidents, where trees were hitting trains, where trains were having to run through pretty significant levels of floodwater.

Cabinet Secretary, I invite you again to apologise, because I noticed that you haven’t put an apology on the record yet. But could I see some clarification in relation to the statement that was put out by Transport for Wales yesterday—a welcome statement to give us an overview of the situation? They talk of, out of the 127 engines available to them, 36 are off the tracks, as it were, in the workshops, in the second paragraph. It then goes on to say that, 'Additionally, we currently have 21 units withdrawn from service'. So, if you put the 36 and the 21 together, you’ve nearly got half the fleet out of action. Can you confirm that that is the case and that the 769 locomotives that you announced back in July 2017, which were due to enter service in May 2018, are available to the franchise so that they can bolster the fleet, or are we still waiting for those engines to come into service?

First of all, in terms of apologies, there should have been an apology long ago for the under-investment—terrible and historic under-investment—in rail infrastructure in Wales; 1 per cent of funding for what amounts to a double-digit percentage of rail track. It has to be said that we haven’t yet found categoric evidence that it’s the tracks that have been the problem, but it could well be that a contributing factor is the poor infrastructure that trains are actually operating on. Certainly, earlier in the year, with a cracked track, that was part of the problem for rail services being cancelled in many parts of Wales.

Now, additional rolling stock has, as a consequence of Welsh Government intervention, been introduced to the network. But we are examining many ways that we can bring additional rolling stock on a short-term basis to Wales, whilst the Vivarail, 769 and Gerald trains are delivered. It’s important that people recognise, Deputy Presiding Officer, that Transport for Wales is doing all it can to source additional rolling stock for the network, whilst at the same time working 24/7 to make sure that those trains that have been damaged due to storm Callum are brought back on the tracks as soon as possible.

Thank you very much, Cabinet Secretary.