Item 5 is a statement by the Minister for Environment, Energy and Rural Affairs on the Warm Homes programme, and I call on the Minister for Environment, Energy and Rural Affairs—Lesley Griffiths.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. Last week, and in observance of National Fuel Poverty Awareness Day, National Energy Action Wales, with support from SSE, hosted this year’s fuel poverty conference entitled ‘Tackling Fuel Poverty & Inequality: The Road Ahead’. It provided an opportunity for Government, Ofgem and key partners representing the energy and third sectors to come together to share successes and identify challenges, but more importantly to consider how best we can work together in partnership to support people in our society whose lives continue to be blighted by living in a cold home. Today, I would like to take this opportunity to reaffirm this Government’s commitment to tackling fuel poverty and improving the energy efficiency of our housing, whilst being good global citizens by reducing our carbon footprint and reducing the share of the world’s resources we take for our own needs.

Everyone should live in a decent home. Decent homes create decent communities in which everyone can play a part. Warm and affordable houses prevent ill health, they help our children do well in school and ensure some of our most vulnerable people feel more secure. This is why our focus on creating decent homes and tackling fuel poverty is so important. Since its launch almost 10 years ago, our Warm Homes programme, which includes the demand-led Nest scheme and the area-based Arbed scheme, has provided energy efficiency advice to more than 112,000 people and has improved more than 50,000 homes by installing home energy efficiency measures. Without this assistance, we estimate that more than 80,000 homes would have been facing the unmanageable burden of keeping warm this winter. Extending this programme until 2021 should enable us to improve up to a further 25,000 homes.

The investment of £248 million, which we've delivered through our Warm Homes programme up to the end of March 2018, has been in addition to support offered by the UK Government through the energy company obligation scheme. The new ECO scheme now has a greater emphasis on people living on lower incomes. This will better enable larger energy companies to play their part in making more affordable warmth a reality.

The investment made in improving the energy efficiency of Welsh homes, together with our ongoing investment to implement the Welsh quality housing standard in the social housing sector, has had a positive impact. The result of the latest Welsh housing conditions survey reports the average energy performance certificate rating of homes in Wales in this latest survey is at band D, compared to the average band E rating in 2008. However, despite our efforts, the number of people struggling to maintain a safe and warm home during the winter remains stubbornly high. More than one in five households, unfortunately, continues to live in fuel poverty.

Our health conditions pilot, introduced in 2017, is designed to support our efforts to reduce the levels of illness and premature winter deaths, made worse from living in a cold home. The pilot extends eligibility to enable our Nest scheme to support people living on lower incomes, not in receipt of income-related benefits, living with a chronic respiratory or similar health condition. I have agreed to extend this pilot for a further year. This will ensure the people most at risk of respiratory and associated conditions can continue to receive the help and support they need and will contribute to reducing winter pressures on our health services.

This winter, I have also agreed to make funding available to provide support for our most vulnerable citizens who are living in a cold home for the sake of the cost of a call-out charge needed to repair a broken central heating boiler. Supporting people to restore heating in their homes, especially for homes with children, older people and disabled people, must be one of our shared priorities.

Turning to the future, my intention is to publish our new plan for tackling fuel poverty at next year’s fuel poverty awareness conference, following a public consultation in the autumn. The new plan will include outcome-focused objectives that are aspirational. However, we must take care our aspirations are deliverable in the short, medium and longer term, and are clearly aligned to our wider decarbonisation agenda. On that basis, the Welsh Government is keen to work with the energy sector, our stakeholders in the public and third sectors, the UK Government and the energy regulator, to ensure we develop and deliver a plan that achieves our mutually shared ambitions. If we are to live up to our principled approach, balancing the need to tackle fuel poverty, whilst at the same time reducing carbon emissions from the 1.4 million homes in Wales, must remain core to our future plans.  

Thanks for your statement, and you began again by referring to last Thursday's National Energy Action Wales conference, 'Tackling Fuel Poverty & Inequality: The Road Ahead', ahead of Friday's Fuel Poverty Awareness Day, and I also spoke at that event in the afternoon, and set on a question panel as we moved on.

Now, as you know, according to the latest estimate, although some years out of date now, 291,000 households in Wales—23 per cent—are in fuel poverty. Can you tell us when you expect the updated figures to be published? We understand that the Welsh Government is likely to do that this spring. 

The National Energy Action fuel poverty monitor 2017-18 referred to the Welsh Government's 2010 target to eradicate fuel poverty by December 2018, and said there had

'yet to be clear tangible steps towards setting a new fuel poverty commitment that can drive strategic action on fuel poverty reduction locally and nationally.'

And that there was

'consensus that a new fuel poverty strategy and action plan, which should include ambitious targets to improve homes to a minimum energy efficiency standard, should be developed in collaboration with stakeholders.' 

But in your statement, you confirmed your intention to publish a new plan for tackling fuel poverty at next year's conference, presumably another 12 months away, and that you're keen to work with the sector. How do you propose to work with the sector prior to the consultation you also referred to, to ensure that that really is developed in collaboration with stakeholders, because, as you know, there are many different ways that can be achieved, some more effective than others, in order to drive a national strategic plan with ambitious targets? 

Clearly, that can include things like better insulation, smarter lighting and appliances, smarter heating systems, all of which can save householders money. But also, as NEA Cymru said a couple of months ago, whilst we know that energy inefficiency is a contributing factor to fuel poverty, this alone won't solve the problem. A new strategy is needed, outlining a more joined-up approach by Welsh Government, local authorities, housing associations, advice and health services, as well as other public and voluntary organisations in society.

That links in to my previous question, but how will you ensure that this plan or strategy that goes forward isn't simply focused on energy efficiency, although that's important, but on that broader social justice agenda? 

Following the Welsh Government's 2010 strategy, excess winter deaths in Wales in 2011-12 were 1,250. However ONS data released last November showed that the number of excess winter deaths in Wales had reached 3,400 in 2017-18, with increases in all English regions and Wales, but Wales having the highest regional index. 

Last autumn, you told the cross-party group on fuel poverty and energy efficiency that you'd be developing a cold weather plan in conjunction with Public Health Wales. And this is reflecting the call in the NEA fuel poverty monitor for Welsh Government to develop a cold weather plan, similar to the plan in England produced by Public Health England. It also called for the devolved nations to adopt the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline, and corresponding quality standard on cold-related ill health and excess winter deaths. 

How do you respond to those particular calls—for many years now, they've been calling for the adoption of the NICE guideline, not just the NEA, but the broader fuel poverty coalition in Wales—and to their call in the context of the work carried out by Public Health England across the border? 

The Welsh Government, according to the fuel poverty monitor, could protect vulnerable households with a crisis fund for emergency heating when their health is at risk. Are you considering or will you consider a crisis fund to meet, again, the call that's been sounding for many years? And they also call for investment to improve the energy efficiency of existing housing stock in Wales needing to be urgently expanded. We know that Wales has the greatest proportion of older housing in Wales that's least adaptable to modern energy efficiency measures. So, how do you respond to proposals in our last manifesto for a retrofit toolkit based upon a whole-building approach, which had been endorsed by the Sustainable Traditional Building Alliance, to recognise that key issue?

Two final points. You'll be aware of the Flintshire affordable warmth scheme that was launched in 2013, which did include a crisis fund for people who couldn't afford to heat their homes and needed immediate support. But last year, the key third sector partner in that, the North Wales Energy Advice Centre, which had actually been the impetus behind it, lost their main funding. And they wrote to me saying the affordable warmth scheme in Flintshire should be a flagship project to be emulated across Wales and the UK as an affordable way to provide real, practical and effective help to those most in need, but looks now most likely to be abandoned. So, again, given the comments earlier about the need to work with stakeholders, how can we ensure that good practice like that isn't lost, but is developed in real partnership with the key stakeholders?

And finally, at last Thursday's event, one of the people on the panel with us was the policy and campaigns manager for Age Cymru. She reminded us that last winter's Age Alliance Wales newsletter said that third sector representatives on regional partnership boards had reported feeling excluded and that the third sector is being seen as a bit player with little or no strategic involvement in planning. And she said her first priority in putting fuel poverty at the heart of the agenda in Wales would be to address that and ensure that the third sector had real teeth and engagement in regional partnership boards. Again, do you agree with her? And if so, how, a year further down the road, will you work with colleagues to make that happen? 

Thank you, Mark Isherwood, for the series of questions. You ask about when we will be publishing the new figures and my understating too is spring, which I know probably covers several months of the year, but I will write to the Member to say exactly when I think those figures will be published by us.

As Mark Isherwood said, I attended the fuel poverty cross-party group, which I think you chair, I think, towards the end of last year, and, certainly, I found it very beneficial to have that conversation with so many enthusiastic stakeholders. And, I think, going forward, we talked about the new strategy, and I've asked officials to start working with stakeholders. I think we do need to find a way of making sure they have a meaningful response to the way we take this new fuel poverty strategy forward, and I'll certainly look at whether we need some form of round-table or some form of group to help us bring that strategy forward. I don't think it should be too big—I think you reeled off quite a few different organisations, and sometimes it's a bit difficult to have too many around a table. But, certainly, the expertise they have, I think, will be needed.

As you referred to, I mentioned in my opening statement that we are now starting to look to develop a new fuel poverty strategy to come in in 2020—probably around this time next year. I'm hoping to announce it at the conference. We'll go out to consultation in the autumn, so that groundwork needs to be done from spring onwards, to make sure we're ready to have that public consultation in the autumn that will then develop the new plan to be published in early 2020. I mentioned it's really important that our objectives are ambitious but achievable. They must be deliverable going forward.

In relation to the cold weather plan, certainly, I was pressed very hard, I think, at the cross-party group, around a cold weather plan, and I did ask my officials, as I said, to develop a cold weather plan as part of the new tackling fuel poverty plan that we announced last week. I think the focus of the plan needs to be how best we safeguard vulnerable people from living in a cold home during the winter months. As an interim measure for this winter, which I accept has been a particularly mild winter, I made arrangements to ensure that measures were put into place to safeguard vulnerable people as part of our resilience plan for winter, which is drawn up by my colleague Julie James, and I mentioned that I put some additional funding forward to ensure that, if people were unable to meet the cost of a call-out, because some people found that a huge barrier, we supported that. And that's being delivered through the discretionary assistance fund, which the Member will be very well aware of, and I know it has been used. Then, once the call-out is done and the boiler can't be repaired, emergency heating can be provided. And, again, referral to Nest for additional support can be made.

The Member asked about crisis funding, so I just referred to the call-out charge. I could look at a crisis fund, but, obviously, the funding would have to come from somewhere else, so I would have to look at where I could get that funding from, but I think, certainly, when we look at developing the new fuel poverty strategy, it's something we can look at.

Mark Isherwood mentioned the Flintshire scheme, which I am aware of because of, obviously, being in north Wales. I think it is important that we don't lose that good practice. So, again, I'd be very happy to hear other experiences and, again, maybe as we develop the strategy they could come on board with that.

May I thank the Minister for her statement? And may I say at the outset that I, of course, recognise the contribution that the Warm Homes programme and Nest and Arbed have made in seeking to tackle fuel poverty? But I will say what I always say when I refer to these programmes: the scale of the programmes doesn't correspond to the scale of the challenge facing us in Wales, from the point of view of fuel poverty, never mind climate change. We know that there are almost 500 additional winter deaths related to fuel poverty in Wales every year. We also know that around a quarter of Welsh homes live in fuel poverty and, of course, the statistics are a crisis and a national scandal. And at the current rate of tackling fuel poverty, it would take 48 years for Wales to eradicate fuel poverty. So, that's just how inadequate the response has been, I fear.

So, in extending the Warm Homes programme, can I ask whether you will enhance the resources available, and do that significantly, or are we going to have another additional two years of the same? Because the progress that's been delivered to date, of course, simply isn't sufficient. Now, Plaid Cymru was clear in our manifesto in the last Assembly election that we would have introduced the biggest retrofitting programme that Wales had ever seen, worth £3 billion over a number of years, and that's the kind of ambitious, radical response that is necessary.

And the Government, as you say in your statement, has spent some £248 million over the past 10 years or so, so what's that—around £25 million per annum? But we also know that the Welsh Government spends £100 million per annum on dealing with cold-related hospital admissions.

So, this Government is spending £25 million per year on tackling fuel poverty when it's costing the NHS at least £100 million a year to deal with some of its consequences. And, of course, that £100 million doesn't include the cost of tackling the respiratory consequences of living in a cold and damp home, the mental health consequences of fuel debt et cetera, et cetera. So, what does it say about how seriously this Government is taking its obligations in terms of preventative spend and the preventative approach promoted in the well-being of future generations Act, when your response to the fuel poverty crisis in Wales is, frankly, so inadequate?

Now, I welcome the proposed new plan for tackling fuel poverty. What I don't welcome, of course, is that it won't be published until a year from now, and that's when it'll be published, so we're not quite sure whether that's also when it will start to be actioned. Presumably, that'll be in 2021 when the current Warm Homes programme comes to an end. So, by 2021, we will have probably seen in Wales nearly 1,000 Welsh people dying in excess winter deaths related to fuel poverty. Now, that's not acceptable, clearly. So, how ambitious will the new plan be? Will the new plan, for example, include a target for eradicating fuel poverty, given, of course, that you woefully failed to meet that target of eradicating fuel poverty by 2018? Now, what you say in your statement is that the plan will include

'outcome-focused objectives that are aspirational.'

Well, that's the worst kind of civil service speak I've probably seen in a long, long time in any statement. When is a target not a target? When it's an outcome-focused objective that is aspirational. So, can you tell us what that means, Minister? Could you give us an example, maybe, of what kind of thing that could be, in your view? And, could you be clear as to whether the new plan will include a target to eradicate the scourge of fuel poverty in Wales?

Two final questions. Sixteen per cent of energy customers in Wales use electric and gas pre-payment meters, which, of course, is the most expensive payment method, so could you tell us what more your Government will be doing to help those people, many of whom will obviously be struggling and living in fuel poverty? And finally, the last time the Welsh Government considered energy efficiency levels of new houses, you bottled it. You consulted, of course, on the Part L building regulations, you consulted on a proposed 25 per cent or 40 per cent target for improving energy efficiency, and you plumped for a stunningly modest 8 per cent improvement, locking, of course, more energy inefficiency into every new house built in Wales, and locking that inefficiency in for up to 100 years. And as you are reviewing the Part L building regulations this year, can you reassure us that you won't bottle it again?

Diolch, Llyr Huws Gruffydd for that series of questions. I cannot pretend that—. I wish I had far more money to put into all of our warm home schemes. You say that your manifesto was to put £3 billion in—in I think you said over three years—[Interruption.]—no, a longer period. I mean, you have to look at where that funding would come from. My budget isn't even £1 billion a year, and, obviously, that's right across the department. So, I absolutely accept and I wish that I could put more funding into the scheme so that we could retrofit far more houses.

On the decarbonisation part of it—and forget the Warm Homes side—I know that if we're going to meet our carbon emissions target, we need to be putting far more effort into our homes. But, again, you go back to aspiration, you have to be pragmatic, you have to be realistic. I want to be ambitious, I want to be aspirational, but, equally, we have to be realistic too. I've met with the providers of both Arbed and Nest on many occasions, not just since I've been in this portfolio, but as an Assembly Member in my own constituency, and there is only so much we can do with funding and with resources. But one death is too many deaths, and we certainly don't want to be having in Wales the numbers that you've just referred to.

I think it's really important that this strategy does have a target. You mentioned the 2018 target, and looking back, it certainly wasn't achievable, so I don't see the point in having targets, particularly when you're ministering and you think, 'Well, I'm not going to be there in 10 years' time', and you can promise anything. I'm not like that and I don't want to do that. But I do think, within the strategy, you need to set realistic targets that can be met.

You asked about Part L building regulations—that's now being taken forward by my colleague Julie James, and I will certainly ask her to keep you updated, and I'm sure she will keep Members updated in relation to, again, what targets come forward.

You mentioned about pre-payment meters. I think too many people pay too much for their home energy needs, simply because they're on a pre-payment meter. When I looked at the figures of people who are on these meters, it's about 5 per cent of owner-occupiers. In the private sector, the numbers increase to 23 per cent for electric pre-payment meters and 26 per cent for gas. When you look at social housing, they increase to 46 per cent for electricity and 44 per cent for gas. I know some people do prefer to use them, and that's absolutely fine, and I know that that's because they do have a fear of having unmanageable debt, but I think we've got to do far more to support people to access tariffs so that they are able to be on the best tariff possible to heat their homes at an affordable price. You'll be aware of the introduction of a cap on pre-payment meters, which was made following recommendations by the Competition and Markets Authority and I think that was very welcomed. However, I've had these discussions with energy companies—I think they need to do far more to offer pre-payment customers a much better deal, particularly vulnerable customers, to ensure that supplies are maintained during the winter months, because I know that there is self-disconnection, and I think the energy companies have a moral duty to do that.

I thank you, Minister, for your statement today, and it is clear that the numbers of people living in fuel poverty remain stubbornly high. It's also distressing that we see this alongside a rise in food banks, a rise in homelessness, and it's simply a symptom of the last decade of austerity. My fear is that Brexit will make things much, much worse. As things stand, around 5 per cent of UK electricity and up to 12 per cent of our gas is imported from the EU, so any import tariffs or barriers would push up costs, and customers would, as always, pick up that bill. The trade association for the British energy industry, Energy UK, has also warned that household bills are likely to rise as a result of uncertainty over whether Britain will remain in the EU emissions trading system, and there are other pressing uncertainties too. For example, the four power cables that connect Britain to the continent are scheduled to be joined by eight more in the near future. Will that project fall through, and if it does, what cost will that be to the consumer? As Lord Teverson, chair of the EU Energy and Environment Sub-Committee said, after Brexit,

'There will be a divergence and we will not be integrated. What that means is energy trading becomes less efficient and retail prices will go up'.

We've seen again today what was once glibly dismissed as 'project fear' being realised throughout the UK car industry and the devastating impact that's had on those communities, but what's the cost of Brexit to Wales's booming energy sector, particularly the key operators at Milford Haven?

On a final point, you talked about energy performance certificates, or EPCs, in relation to the Welsh housing conditions survey. Many of my constituents are off-grid and they use solid fuel or liquid gas, and that, of course, is much more expensive. But EPC is based on running costs, and as such is not a reliable measure of energy efficiency for those particular areas. I appreciate the EPC structure is a matter for the UK Government, but could I ask you to take up that issue with your counterpart in Westminster and to look at what the Welsh Government can do to redress what is a fundamental unfairness?

Thank you, Joyce Watson, for those questions and observations. I think you're quite right: a decade of austerity of course has an impact on the number of people living in fuel poverty here in Wales. You talk about Brexit, and I am concerned, particularly about the impact of a 'no deal' Brexit on energy prices in particular, again in the context of other economic factors that also could come into play if we have a 'no deal' scenario. So, we've just started having—. You'll be aware of the quadrilaterals I have at an agricultural level with Michael Gove. So, we've just started the same engagement with the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. I and Ken Skates have been trying to get it up and running for a couple of years. We've just had the first meeting. That was chaired by Claire Perry, and I think it was really important that we highlighted our concerns, particularly around a 'no deal' Brexit. The UK Government informed us that they have done some assessment around the likely scale of price increases. They haven't shared that information with us. We need to have sight of that detail so that we can work out any potential impacts on the people of Wales, and also businesses. I think it's absolutely urgently needed if we are to understand and plan for any potential impacts on fuel poverty levels here in Wales as we come out of the European Union. I think there's also a need to consider energy prices in the context of cumulative impacts, and consider the interrelationships between energy prices and the other economic impacts we could have post Brexit. So, in relation to your question around EPCs, I'll be certainly very happy to take that forward with Claire Perry—if not at the next BEIS quadrilateral, I'll be very happy to write to her.

Well, I welcome the statement, and of course I'm entirely in favour of the Warm Homes programme. I'm delighted that the Government has invested £248 million in it over a period of years. It is undoubtedly a very cost-effective investment in keeping people's homes warm. As Llyr Gruffydd pointed out earlier on, failing to do this effectively in new homes will have effects that go on maybe for 100 years, the length of life of the property. Therefore, the Part L regulations are an important element in this and I certainly support the case that he made for this to be an area of priority for the Government to make more effective.

Certainly, the other parts of the statement—the average EPC rating of homes in Wales is now at band D, whereas 10 years ago it was at band E—that's very welcome. The health conditions pilot I certainly am very supportive of, and also the imaginative scheme to help people with call-outs for repair of broken central heating boilers and so on in the winter. Those kinds of micro measures, I think, are very desirable in themselves, quite apart from any global warming issues that are behind these policies. 

So, yes, I welcome all that, and I welcome the Government's commitment to tackle fuel poverty, but it would be more impressive if they weren't doing so much to cause it in the first place. We've had these arguments many times before, but given that now people's electricity and gas bills basically are 20 per cent higher than they need be because of taxes—and, indeed, an EU-imposed VAT directive that adds an unnecessary 5 per cent to people's bills, which we'll be able to take off straight away when we ultimately leave the EU—there are great opportunities in Brexit if we revise our views on the EU's policies on global warming, which it would be open to us to do post Brexit. We'll be able to make a substantial reduction in the bills of some of the poorest people in our society.

As Mark Isherwood pointed out, the figures we've been working on are 23 per cent of the houses in Wales in fuel poverty spending more than 10 per cent of their income—10 per cent of their income—on keeping warm in the winter. These are astonishing figures for a country at the beginning of the twenty-first century in what is supposed to be one of the most developed countries in the world. I think it's a shameful indictment of the failure of successive Governments of all parties that so many of our citizens are suffering in this way and it should be one of our highest priorities to do something about it.

But what is being gained by these policies that are imposing such great burdens upon the people who are least able to bear them? What's happening in the rest of the world? There is supposedly going to be a rise in carbon dioxide emissions in 2018—the figures are only coming out now—by 2.7 per cent. That's an increase in global emissions sharply up on the plateau from 2014-16, and a 1 per cent rise that occurred in 2017. Where is this coming from? Well, according to the Global Carbon Project, all countries are contributing to this rise, with emissions in China up 4.7 per cent, the United States by 2.5 per cent, and India by a staggering 6.3 per cent up on the year before, largely driven by their 8 per cent economic growth achievement, which is a good thing in itself.

This is being driven in all fuel sectors as well. In India, for example, this 6.3 per cent growth is being generated by a 7.1 per cent increase in the use of coal, a 2.9 per cent increase in the use of oil, and a 6 per cent increase in the use of gas. They are going massively in the opposite direction to the one that the energy Secretary is saying Wales should do. Wales contributes 0.01 per cent to global emissions of carbon dioxide. The increase in India's emissions last year amounted to five times that. We could close down the entire Welsh economy, we could expel all the people from Wales—indeed they could all die—and Wales would have a zero carbon footprint. India would wipe that out in the increases in its economy alone in 10 weeks. That is the price that all these people in fuel poverty are paying for 10 weeks of India's increase in their own carbon emissions.

I think this is a staggeringly irrational policy on the part of the Welsh Government and the UK Government and indeed of the entire European Union. UKIP is the only party in this Assembly that offers a different road. Our policy is to put the economic well-being of people, and particularly the poorest people in society first, not fantasy policies about global warming, which we can do nothing to change. 

So, let's bring it back to fuel poverty, shall we, and Warm Homes? I'm very proud that we have put so much investment into our Warm Homes schemes. You mentioned £248 million at the end of March 2018. By the end of this Assembly term, it'll be £344 million and that will have benefited over 75,000 homes. You always mention—. As a climate change sceptic, you always mention China; you always mention India. But, you know, my constituents who are living in fuel poverty, they don't want to hear about UKIP's policies and what they will do; they're fantasy policies. We are actually bringing forward Warm Homes programmes that are helping people who are in fuel poverty. I mentioned—and I know you did say it was the right thing to do—about the call-out charge. People cannot afford to call out an engineer to have a look at their broken boiler. It's self-disconnection, and we are doing all we can to support people.

Thank you very much.