1. Will the Minister make a statement on the expert commission that will be appointed with regards to the M4 corridor around Newport? 318

Yes, of course. Earlier today I issued a statement informing Members of the expert commission, including the terms of reference.

Can I thank you, Presiding Officer, for accepting this topical question? And it would have been helpful, I think, if the Minister had brought an oral rather than a written statement on this matter. Of course, I read your statement today, Minister, and, as far as I'm concerned, from reading the statement we are going back to square one, with another expert commission appointed to look at alternatives to the Welsh Government’s own proposals after, as we learned from the statement today, £114 million of public money being spent or wasted on developing proposals for a two-year long independent public inquiry. I would agree with the comments in your statement today, Minister, that the Welsh Government does need to find a solution quickly, so I do have a number of questions.

What will be the timetable for the expert commission to report? What budget will you be allocating specifically for the works of the expert commission? Who will appoint the members of this commission, and how long will this recruitment process take? And will you commit to abiding by the commission’s conclusions or will there be capacity for this expert commission’s reporting to be disregarded? Minister, you’ve told this Assembly that it is essential that we plan transport holistically and that we do not see transport modes in isolation, and you went on to say that, if you were to maximise the capacity on the metro, the maximum you could remove from the M4 was only 4 per cent. Do you think that any alternative proposals you make will remove more than 4 per cent?

The First Minister pointed out yesterday that a series of fast-tracked targeted interventions to alleviate congestion on the M4 will be made in the interim period, and your statement today has alluded to that. If the Minister thinks that short-term measures are effective, why have they not previously been implemented when they could have been in place years ago?

And finally, Presiding Officer, the Minister has previously said, and I quote here, that piecemeal and useful improvements have been undertaken over time, but they’ve only postponed the issue— they’ve only postponed the issue—this piece of infrastructure needs a major long-term upgrade. So can I ask: does the Minister now believe that such a major infrastructure upgrade on the M4 will no longer be needed?

Can I thank Russell George for his questions, and assure him that we are most certainly not going back to square one? And that’s why we are able to ask the commission to bring forward recommendations within a period of six months from being convened. We’re not going back to square one, because all of the traffic flow models, all of the assessment, all of the analysis of 28 plus proposals now exist. The inspector’s report is comprehensive and provides an assessment of each and every one of those 28 proposals. However, the commission will be free to consider alternative and additional proposals. The commission will be established with expertise from the transport field in which to do so. And, therefore, the money has not been wasted. Indeed, when you compare the proportion of the cost for the development of the M4 against other major road schemes, the developments cost as a proportion are actually very favourable—they amount to 6.3 per cent. In contrast, Llywydd, the A487 Caernarfon-Bontnewydd bypass was 9.4 per cent, the A465 section 3, 9.8 per cent, the A40, 11.5 per cent.

Projects cannot be developed for free, and it's only right and proper in a democratic process that a full opportunity is given to the public to scrutinise the Government's case. The Government's case was strong and compelling, as was shown by the inspector, but times have moved on quite considerably since 2016, when we pledged to construct a relief road, and it's my determination now to move forward at pace with alternatives and a combination—not just one potential intervention, but possibly a combination of interventions, many of which may be contained within the 28 that were presented to the inspector, and to move ahead with them at great speed.

I can tell Members today, regarding the timetable for putting together and inviting the commission to report, that we'll see members appointed—they will be agreed between the chair and me—before the summer recess. Their work will commence as soon as possible after that date, but I will be meeting with the chair on Monday to discuss the work and the inspector's report and the assessment and the analysis that has taken place already. As I said in the statement, I expect an interim report within 6 months, but I've been very keen and clear in saying to the chair and to the public that, if the commission is able to bring forward viable suggestions that can be delivered in the short term, immediately, within that six-month period, then it should do so without delay.

Now, Russell George asked the very important question of whether the recommendations will be binding. They will be considered by Government, but they will be conditional on them showing value for money. I do not wish to waste public money on projects that will not deliver. They will also have to be affordable, given, not least, the position of the First Minister on the M4 black route, where it was judged to be unaffordable. And then, thirdly, they must be deliverable. We saw during the course of the public inquiry some suggestions proposed, including a very, very lengthy tunnel that would not be deliverable. We wish to see deliverable solutions implemented.

Russell George is also right when he points to the 4 per cent figure concerning how many people we can take off the M4 and utilise public transport. Public transport could be part of the mix of interventions, and that's why I've said that we're not just looking at one single solution, one magic bullet; we're looking at potentially a combination, and a combination of solutions that may have to be sequenced in a certain way.

In terms of the fast-tracked interventions that I have detailed in my written statement, I'm pleased to say that we are in a position now, having tested some of those interventions on the A55, to move ahead with them immediately now on the M4. And where we have introduced them on the A55, I think they've proven to be very successful indeed in alleviating congestion quicker when incidents and accidents occur. And insofar as the question of whether a major piece of new road infrastructure would be considered, well I've said to the commission chair that his remit should be broad; he should be able to consider, with the people that will be appointed alongside him, road-based solutions, but they must meet the bar that has been set by the First Minister. They must be affordable and they must not contribute significantly to climate change. They are fundamental positions that will not shift during the process of the next six months.

I'm pleased to have an opportunity to pose a couple of questions. I think it was the correct decision not to press ahead with the black route. I'm not as convinced as the Minister is that things have moved on so much since the proposals were originally made. There have been plenty of people, including my party, who have been arguing—and the Minister sat behind you—for many years that this was likely to be seen, ultimately, as being unsustainable both environmentally and financially. And, for the record, I would be pleased to see a significant amount of money being spent on improving the road network in the south-east of Wales, but that has to go side by side with a real drive for modal shift in the south-east of Wales, as elsewhere. I think that was what was completely lost in the commitment to spend as much as was being proposed on the black route.

A couple of questions arise, really, from your statement this morning, the written statement. You say that a number of short-term steps will be taken—additional traffic officers, for example, not closing lanes during major events, more rescue vehicles and so on, just to keep traffic flowing. Why on earth, people will be asking, were these measures not already in place, given the serious congestion on that stretch of the M4?

On the commission, I, too, want to see and hear a bit more on a timescale for the work that you expect to be carried out by the commission. I think we should be very wary of looking for things that the commission say can be done within six months. I don't think it is that kind of short-term knee-jerk response that we need. If it isn't an oxymoron, I think we need an urgent look at long-term strategic answers for transport, not just in the south-east but a wider look at what can be achieved with the money that is available.

So, one on timescale, but secondly, surely the work that you're allocating to this commission should be work that you should be giving to the National Infrastructure Commission for Wales. That already exists. And I know you say that this is a vehicle that will be charged with delivering a specific project, but surely this could be a real test for that new infrastructure commission for Wales, in being given a task that has a long-term strategic mission. I just don't understand why you'd want to create a new commission when you already have that body in place.

Can I thank Rhun ap Iorwerth for his questions? The latter question, I think, is particularly valid—the question of whether NICW should've been tasked with this particular piece of work. That was something that I carefully considered, and I judged that because the National Infrastructure Commission for Wales has already commenced work in various areas looking at other forms of infrastructure—for example, in digital—if we were to invite the National Infrastructure Commission for Wales to undertake this piece of work, it would swamp them and prevent them from moving ahead with other important pieces of work that must be considered in our long-term interests.

In terms of the timescale, well, my statement is very clear about this: the commission will consider short-term interventions and longer-term solutions, including the behaviours that lead people to travel in certain ways and to choose to travel by certain modes. We always showed, with our evidence, that the black route—it was recognised fully by the inspector—was designed fully in conjunction with other forms of transport, particularly with the south Wales metro, in order to design a fully integrated, modern transport network across the region. That work, as I say, was recognised by the inspector.

We do wish to see a significant modal shift take place, which is why we are investing more than ever before in active travel, and why, with my deputy leading on active travel, we are determined to see more people leave their cars for other forms of transport. I can tell Members today that one of the pilot schemes that we are rolling out on bus travel—demand-responsive travel—has been tested elsewhere in the UK, where it's found that more than half the people using that particular service were first-time users of buses. That's the sort of modal shift that we are leading on in the Welsh Government.

Rhun ap Iorwerth recognised that this was the correct decision—I am grateful to him for agreeing. I think it's important to recognise that when times change and when circumstances change, then you have to consider afresh proposals that are promoted and put forward by a Government. It's important to recognise equally, I think, that one of the alternatives that others have proposed in this Chamber—the blue route—was roundly destroyed by the inspector as a valid alternative to the black route. Therefore, the commission will have to be not just analytical but very creative in looking at alternative solutions.

Like others, I was grateful to you, Minister, for your statement this morning and grateful for some of the detail that it contained—I very much welcome what you've said. Can I say that one of the reactions I've seen from my own constituency has been concerns about timescales and concerns about the time that this is going to take? I'm very interested in the terms of reference that you've set out for the commission, and I should say I welcome Terry Burns's appointment as well—I think somebody of that stature is somebody who can drive this work forward.

But, what isn't clear from the terms of reference is what the objectives are for this work—what is the purpose of this? Reading through the terms of reference, you could very easily come up with the black route and start again. I'm sure that's not the intention, but the terms of reference are drawn quite widely, which, on one level, is something to be welcomed. But I think also people want to know what is it that you seek to achieve and on what timescale. I would like to see a very clear commitment to reducing congestion—but by what proportion? How do you intend to reduce congestion? What is the target for reducing congestion? What is the impact going to be for the wider economy? I'm sure others will discuss the issues around Newport itself, but this is a key part and a key driver for the economy of the whole of south-east Wales and the Gwent valleys, and so there will be people who'll be very concerned to ensure that what we do in Newport in alleviating the difficulties around the M4 also has a wider economic impact than would have been the case with the black route.

So, I hope over the coming weeks when you are able to come back to us with further statements on this matter we will see clear targets, clear objectives, we will see clear timescales. There's a great deal of cynicism, Minister; people don't believe that you as a Government are actually going to achieve something through this commission. I do believe that we do need a clear timescale, clear ambitions and also very clear targets for achieving the objectives that you will set yourself, and also doing it in such a way as to ensure that the whole economy of this region benefits from this work.    

Can I thank Alun Davies for his questions? I do recognise the frustration that many people across the region feel. This is a problem that has affected south-east Wales for decades, and it's a problem that we are determined to get to grips with and to solve. That's why we've appointed Lord Burns to chair a commission of experts. That's why I have great confidence in the commission to be able to propose solutions that will lead to reduced congestion and as near as possible to free-flow traffic. 

I've already identified the timescale for the work that will take place, and we have informed the commission chair that we would wish to see immediate interventions produced in their interim report, if not sooner, as I have said to Russell George. And the purpose of the commission's work is crystal clear: it's to identify deliverable alternatives that offer value for money to the black route scheme that will reduce congestion to a level as close as possible to enable free-flow traffic to take place.

Now, of course, each and every suggestion and proposal that are presented by the commission will be scrutinised by Ministers for the deliverability and value for money that they present, but given that we are appointing traffic experts or transport experts to the commission, I have every confidence in them proposing deliverable and affordable solutions within that six-month time period.   

Obviously and inevitably, many of the questions that I was posing or about to pose have been asked, but the Minister will obviously be sensitive to the general concern amongst the public about the cost implications of this new commission, given the enormous amounts of money already expended in the long-ranging and long-running inquiry. I'm sure he would agree with me that they have a right to ask how much it will cost, how long it will run for and who will constitute the commission. I know that in your statement, which I thank you for, Minister, you have given some indication on some of these questions, but would you reiterate them here this afternoon so that the general public may have some of their concerns somewhat allayed? Given that there were some 100 submissions on alternative strategies to the black route given to the inquiry, how will these be evaluated and are there closing dates for new submissions? Last but not least, when can we see actual physical work commence to alleviate the ongoing dire problems with the Brynglas tunnels? 

Can I thank David Rowlands for his questions? It was remiss of me not to answer the question that I think was first put by Russell George concerning the cost of the commission. I can assure Members that the cost of the commission will be kept to an absolute minimum, because we'll be providing the secretariat services and we'll be providing the transport expertise in the form of existing officials and their time.

In terms of the composition of the commission, I am also keen to see potentially a police representative—a traffic officer who is able to offer advice and expertise and intelligence on that particular stretch of road. In terms of new submissions, this will not be a fishing exercise by the commission. The commission will consider all of those proposals that already exist, and any that those experts themselves wish to consider. That said, I'm also determined to ensure that the citizen's voice is heard, and so, as I said in my statement, I have asked the commission to come forward with proposals for how the people, not just of the area that this road affects, or the region that it affects, but the whole of Wales, can become part of a co-produced process. 

Minister, the problems on the M4 around Newport are urgent and pressing, and obviously they do need short-term, medium-term and long-term responses. Personally, I believe that 'predict and provide' has largely been discredited as a model for dealing with these issues, and that's why I very much welcome the decision that Welsh Government has made, because trying to predict traffic growth and then building new roads to accommodate those predictions has been seen to merely result in those new roads filling up with more and more traffic journeys, and that doesn't benefit anyone. So, I do believe we need new thinking, more imagination and that modal shift, together with better traffic management. 

So, in order to achieve that, Minister, we will need some early actions. And I wonder whether, as I raised with the First Minister yesterday, one of those early actions might be consideration of the Magor and Undy walkway proposal for a new train station under the UK Government's new stations fund. And, as you know, the local community group are seeking Welsh Government funding to match that available from Monmouthshire County Council to take forward that application into the next stage of the UK Government process. So, I wonder if you could give any positive indications on that. 

In terms of the commission, Minister, obviously Newport City Council will be required to deliver many of the actions—inevitably, I think—that will be coming forward, so it seems to me appropriate for Newport City Council to have a presence on that commission, and I wonder if you would indicate that that will be case.

Just in terms of some of the calls that I think we've already heard, Minister, we've heard calls from Members in this Chamber for spend from these available moneys right across the length and breadth of Wales, and that's understandable in a way, because, obviously, Members have their own pressing concerns in their own areas, but obviously what we're talking about here is the M4 corridor around Newport. That's where the problems are, and that's where the spend of available moneys must take place. And I wonder if you would agree with that, Minister, and give some reassurance on that front. 

Can I thank John Griffiths for his questions, and for his contribution in particular with regard to the 'predict and provide' model? This is something that the inspector considered in great depth, and I'd like to take this opportunity to put on record my thanks, not just to the inspector, who has sadly passed away, but to his team that did such a commendable job over many months. I, more than a year ago, said that I wished to ensure that every person had the ability to be able to contribute to the public local inquiry. I think that did occur, and that's why the public local inquiry took such a great length of time, but the inspector and his team did a fantastic job in ensuring that all evidence could be carefully considered and presented. 

John Griffiths is right that there is no free money attached to the announcement that the First Minister made. There is no windfall that will see vast amounts of money spread right across the length and breadth of Wales. Why? Because much of the cost would have come from other transport projects that would either have to be cancelled or delayed, would have come from school building projects, hospital and healthcare building projects, or new homes. Those projects will now, as a consequence, go ahead. So, we won't necessarily be introducing new pet projects to a list. A list that yesterday, the First Minister said, amounted to about £2.2 billion; today, it's £3 billion. And I'm sure that it will continue to rise. 

The commission are tasked with solving a very specific and definable matter—that being congestion on the M4 in and around the Brynglas tunnels. And so it will be for the commission to consider any proposals that will contribute towards the alleviation of congestion, including any work that might have to be undertaken in opening stations or enhancing stations in order to get more people to use public transport, which could then contribute towards a reduction in congestion. I do not wish to prejudge the work of the experts in this field; instead, I wish the commission to judge any proposals that might come forward.

Thank you for your statement, Minister. And, as the Member for Newport West, I'm sure you'd appreciate I have many questions, but I'll keep them as brief as I can.

Firstly, I welcome the Minister's commitment to listening to the people whose daily lives are affected by the road. How exactly will the commission ensure that these views are fully captured? The vast majority of M4 traffic around Newport is not local traffic. With so much cross-border travel and an increase of 10 per cent of journeys on the bridges, can the Minister confirm that the commission will look at traffic travelling to and from England?

I'm pleased that the statement recognises the need to alleviate congestion and resultant air quality issues. In the immediate instance, what discussions have the Minister's officials had with Newport council officials to ensure that Newport are able to access funds already in place to tackle air quality?

In reference to the projects designed to bring modest but immediate benefits, such as the additional traffic officers and dedicated recovery vehicles, my constituents will be asking why these haven't been put in place before. And what evidence has been drawn upon that demonstrates that these will work effectively?

And, finally, and possibly most importantly, the people of Newport have suffered for long enough and have seen many reviews come and go. What reassurances can the Minister provide that this commission will finally be the one that actually delivers meaningful results?

Can I thank Jayne Bryant for her questions, and her very great concern over the impact that yesterday's decision will have for her constituents? I know that Jayne has been a very keen supporter of the black route, and is very disappointed that the project is not going ahead. However, can I assure the Member and her constituents that we are determined to solve the problem of congestion on the M4 in Newport, and to reduce levels of air pollution along that particular corridor? I believe the figure for the reduction of air pollution that was considered to be medium or high would have been about 500 for the black route—500 homes; I think 12 would have seen a very significant reduction; and over 10,000 would have seen a very small reduction—nonetheless a reduction. So, I'm conscious of the need for us to implement solutions that will drive down levels of air pollution, and I'm absolutely committed to that—so are my colleagues across Government.

Newport council, I'm pleased to say, have engaged already with Welsh Government concerning proposals for the M4. Engagement has gone on now for many years and will continue with regard to alternatives. Insofar as the immediate responses, and the question that was raised about why we haven't implemented these to date, well, it's because we have tested the additional patrol systems and the immediate response and recovery systems on the A55. They have been tested and they have proven to be successful. That enables us now to move them out onto the M4, with confidence that they will alleviate congestion.

Jayne Bryant also raised a very important point of ensuring that citizens have a voice in this process. And I'll be discussing on Monday with Lord Burns how people will be able to contribute, in terms of their views, opinions and their concerns. And it may well be in some form of a citizens' assembly, but that is something that I wish the commission itself to bring forward proposals on. Again, I would like to thank Jayne Bryant for her keen concern over this issue, for many months and years. I can assure her that the commission will look at all of the transport models that exist, and all of the transport flow data that we are armed with, including the transport data concerning cross-border flows, in order to ensure that we produce either a solution or a set of solutions that are deliverable in the short term, as well as also, of course, leading to behavioural change and modal shift in the longer term.

And, finally, Jenny Rathbone.

Whilst I agree with my colleagues for Newport East and Newport West that we need to spend the bulk of the money around Newport to alleviate the congestion there, is it not also important that these transport experts look in detail at the data that we've got? For example, the fact that there is nearly a 40 per cent increase in the number of vehicles using the M4 east of Newport compared with west of Newport, suggesting that they are on their way to Cardiff, and that surely we must look at the mobile phone data and other data that's available to see where we need to put in public transport to encourage people to use public transport rather than individual cars? 

Can I thank Jenny Rathbone for her questions? Of course, Cardiff is one of the fastest growing cities in Europe. It's something that we're very proud of. It's an attractive city for people to invest in, to work in, to learn in, to bring up families in, and we wish to ensure it remains an attractive city for people to come to. Likewise, we wish to see other places across the M4 corridor and in the wider region of south-east Wales benefit from improved transport infrastructure that will enable them to be more attractive places to invest in, and to live in and to study in. In order to ensure that we go on investing in transport, we have to ensure that equally it's affordable and that we're investing in the right transport solutions. Utilising experts in the form of transport experts and economists in this commission will enable us to do that.

But I would just give a note of caution when it comes to mobile data. Of course we use data that enables us to ascertain where traffic is coming from, where it is going to, whenever possible the purpose of those journeys, but there are legal constrictions on what mobile data we can use. We, I can assure the Member, will only ever operate within the law. 

Thank you, Minister.