Questions now from the party spokespeople. The Conservative spokesperson, Russell George.

Diolch, Llywydd. Can the Minister tell me when Wales can expect to have a reliable rail service?

Wales has a reliable—[Interruption.] Wales has a reliable rail service. However, that service is not without faults, and that is something that Transport for Wales have admitted to. I think if we look at, historically, the problems associated with underinvestment by the UK Government, we'll understand that the lack of decent signalling and the lack of major infrastructure improvements have contributed to a lack of reliability not just today but in many years previous.

Minister, there'll be many people across Wales who will not agree with you that we have a reliable rail service. You have great aspirations, which I would welcome and agree with, but passengers want to know when they can expect a rail service that is reliable now. Passengers want to see improvements now, not just in the future. But this is what you told the people of Wales last year, and I'm quoting you here,

'Let me be absolutely clear: in the coming months and years, we will deliver groundbreaking transformation of transport across the country'.

I'm sure that you will agree that we are not seeing that transformation and we're not seeing an acceptable level of service. This summer, we saw an unacceptable level of delays, cancellations, short-form trains. On the Cambrian line, which serves my own constituency, only 61 per cent of trains arrived on time between June and July, with many others being cancelled. There is a shortage of drivers, resulting in further cancellations, and, according to Transport for Wales's own website, 2019 was going to see an increased capacity on the Valleys lines. However, according to their own statistics, only 81 per cent of trains arrived on time between June and July. Is this the groundbreaking transformation that you had in mind? 

Well, let me just repeat some of the groundbreaking measures we've already undertaken as a consequence of us letting this franchise agreement. We have put in orders for £800 million of new trains—more than 130 trains and light rail tram units. Last week, or the week before, I announced £194 million of improvements for stations. Compare that to £600,000 that was spent in the previous 15 years. Halton curve services have begun in the north, and I'm delighted to be able to tell Members today that, next week, I will be detailing how we will be achieving a 10 per cent increase in capacity at the end of this year on the rail franchise network. Members will be interested as well to hear more about the four-carriage trains that are going to be introduced on peak Valleys lines services, which will provide more space for commuters every week. We're going to be introducing—and I'll detail this next week, again—more modern trains with more space and onboard passenger information systems, accessible toilets and free Wi-Fi, and I'll be detailing improved long-distance services between north Wales and Manchester, as well as a much improved journey time between south Wales and north Wales.

But I would add that this has not been a journey without challenge, but much of the challenge relates to the infrastructure that is outdated or is not fit for purpose, and that is not a responsibility of Transport for Wales or the Welsh Government; that remains a responsibility of UK Government. If we are to address that problem, we need to have responsibility for infrastructure and funding devolved to the Welsh Government.

And the Member does pick up on the important point of reliability on the Cambrian line over the summer. Well, of course, much of the problem with the Cambrian line over the summer relates to the signalling equipment that is utilised on the Cambrian line. That is the responsibility not of Transport for Wales but of Network Rail—i.e. UK Government. We are hoping that this will be overcome, but, of course, it's been a challenge not of our making. 

Well, thank you, Minister. You've referred to the Cambrian line. Well, trains are being pulled off the Cambrian line to be used in other parts of Wales. That isn't the responsibility of Network Rail; that's the responsibility of Transport for Wales and yourself. 

Now, last autumn, we saw huge disruption across the rail network, and we saw at one point the fleet reduced from 127 trains to just 86. Now, we know that we expect autumn weather every year in the way it comes to us, but I would have thought that our rail services would have been reliable enough during the warm and dry period this summer, which hasn't been the case. So, that does bring, of course, the concern for where passengers are going to be left this autumn. So, considering the appalling delays and cancellations over the summer, can you assure the people of Wales, and commuters, that this autumn will not be anywhere near the level of disruption that they saw last year?

Can I thank Russell George for giving me an opportunity to address this very serious issue? If we go back to the autumn of last year, we'll all recall that there was a very serious problem with what are called 'wheel flats' caused by the lack of wheel-slide protection on trains. It was a unique problem for the rolling stock fleet that we adopted from Arriva Trains Wales. Now, the Member identifies, rightly, that trains were withdrawn from the Cambrian line and many other lines over the summer holiday period, in order to have wheel-slide protection kits fitted to them. Scores of trains over the summer had wheel-slide protection kits applied to them as part of our £40 million upgrade of the existing fleet, which will be in operation while we await the new trains, which will be delivered from 2022 onward. So, I'm pleased to be able to say to Members today that those trains that were not fitted with wheel-slide protection kits last year, which were not operating as a consequence of that or which did suffer from wheel slide, now have that vital kit applied to them.

Plaid Cymru spokesperson, Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Thank you very much, Llywydd. Will the Minister outline the Welsh Government's preparations for industry 4.0?

Can I thank the Member for his question? He'll be aware of the report that Professor Brown conducted for us on this, which we have now published and we will be responding to it accordingly. But alongside this work, the implementation of the economic action plan continues with the economic contract driving inclusive, fair growth and behavioural change within business settings, and the calls to action designed to futureproof businesses. And as part of the calls to action, we're investing heavily in the industries of tomorrow and in the components of those industries, such as automation and artificial intelligence, which will drive productivity and jobs growth.

I look forward to the full response on Professor Brown's report. What he saw was that too many Welsh companies are locked into low-value parts of worldwide chains and, actually, that there's little scope for higher value roles in areas like research and development and international procurement.

Now Professor Brown further argues that the Welsh workforce, as a result, will be exposed to quality-cost competition as companies seek to automate less valuable parts of their chains. We know that automation is happening and that it will accelerate, so the window for taking action to prepare for that is narrowing. So, what preparations are Welsh Government making to provide retraining opportunities, for example, for those who are and will increasingly be affected by automation?

I'm pleased to be able to tell Members today that the implementation of our plans for individual learning accounts has been commenced and this programme is now being rolled out. What it enables individuals in work to do is to have financial support in order to undergo training and retraining specifically to address the challenges that industry 4.0 will present, and the need to ensure that they are fully equipped to take full advantage of the new jobs that will be created in the transition to an automated society. 

One thing that Professor Brown identifies is that gross value added measures are a very good indication of how prepared an economy is for automation. And the report highlights the sheer scale of the challenge for Wales in particular in preparing the workforce for advances in automation because of a failure to increase our GVA. And if we look at GVA figures by region, then it's very, very uncomfortable reading for you, as Welsh Government, I'm sure. 

London produces 33 per cent more than the UK average. You've been in your role now since 2016. It's very fair now, after that amount of time, to assess how successful the steps you have taken have been in increasing GVA. It's not a good story to tell. So, how prepared can we be for automation when our GVA under your leadership, as economy Minister, is still lagging so far behind?

Well, let's just look at the facts, the figures. Since 2004, Welsh productivity growth has been fourth highest of all the UK regions and nations. The fourth highest. We are coming from an incredibly low base, I would admit that, but since devolution we've performed incredibly well, especially in recent times. If you look at some of the other measurements supplied to the economy, such as gross domestic product, which recently showed Wales outpacing the UK average, we are performing very well indeed. But, of course, we have Brexit looming and that could lead to a contraction in the economy.

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, we are investing in facilities that are designed to drive productivity, such as the advanced manufacturing research centre, which will open in November in Deeside. That facility alone will have a GVA contribution of something in the region of £3 billion and will drive innovation and the diffusion of innovation across the aerospace and automotive sectors in particular. But we're also investing very heavily elsewhere, for example, in the National Digital Exploitation Centre, which, again, is designed to drive innovation and skills development across the Welsh economy. There are a plethora of enterprise hubs and facilities similar to enterprise hubs that we've been able to fund across Wales, designed to encourage and support entrepreneurs to grow their own businesses and to share experience with other entrepreneurs.

I'm confident that with a record number of businesses in existence, with unemployment at a near-record low, with employment at a record high, and inactivity at a record low, the Welsh economy and the Welsh workforce are well placed to meet future challenges. But that's not to say that Brexit will assist. If anything, Brexit is going to be a major challenge that we are going to struggle to overcome, unless we get the financial support through the Kingfisher fund and other funding resources from UK Government.

Brexit Party spokesperson, David Rowlands. 

Diolch, Llywydd. Minister, outside of the UK, the European Union is now officially a low-growth economic region. Even the once-mighty German economy is now stagnating because, unlike the UK, where a large percentage of our business base is taken up by small and medium-sized enterprises, Germany's economy is dominated by large multinational corporations and it is heavily dependent on its export markets. Does the Minister not agree with me that should a ludicrous tariff war follow a 'no deal' Brexit the German economy will be far more damaged than that of the UK?

I'm more concerned with the UK economy rather than the German economy. The German economy has been referred to as a low-growth economy. I always struggle with the idea of a low-growth economy being a poorly performing economy if that low growth is sustainable. It's my firm belief that we shouldn't be chasing, as Greta Thunberg recently put it, this fairytale of eternal high growth. Growth has to be sustainable. And if you look at the market of the EU, it's still a market to which we send the majority of our exports; it is a sustainable market for the UK to be part of. So, whilst we can become obsessed with other economies around the globe, let's just look at our own and focus on what we can do to improve the UK economy and the Welsh economy. We have certain levers here in Wales to improve the Welsh economy, but, ultimately, the UK Government must decide on a course of action that will benefit the economy of Wales and the UK, and that course of action will not lead to any net benefits if the UK Government decide to drive us off a cliff at the end of October.

I thank the Minister for his answer although, of course, I wouldn't particularly agree with his conclusions. Yesterday evening, Minister, I had a very interesting conversation with an Italian bartender. [Interruption.] I shall say at this moment that I was quite sober when I had this conversation—well, at least I wasn't inebriated. But having holidayed many times and being a lover of the Italian way of life, I expressed my surprise at the fact that, for a country that always seemed in economic turmoil, no more so than now, the way of life seemed far superior to that enjoyed in the UK.

I was extremely surprised by his answer, Minister. He told me that far from being a contented and happy population, there was a huge underbelly of discontent, based mainly on a lack of well-paid jobs and commercial opportunity. This contrasted with the UK where, when he arrived some five years earlier, he said he could not believe the job opportunities and pay levels enjoyed by most of the population. He was talking here of Wales, actually, Minister. By the way, having looked at the continued residency regulations, he had no fears about deportation. He went on to say that a growing number of Italians were completely disillusioned with the EU, and applauded the UK's Brexit vote. They now saw the EU as a stifling influence on the Italian economy and resented the EU's political interventions in the country's affairs.

Whilst I acknowledge that this is just one individual's opinion and experience, does the Minister not think it is time we cut the shackles of the Brussels political ambitions and looked out to a world of high economic growth, where some countries' growth levels are five times that of the EU, and where we already enjoy £300 billion-worth of exports?

I'm delighted that you've been engaging with the Italians of Cardiff Bay. I imagine, given you're a Brexit member, he only thanked you when you left his bar if you gave him a very big tip. If we look at the Italian economy, we'll see similar trends there as in the UK. You have some high-performing regions within Italy, primarily in the north, and then you have parts of Italy that are really struggling, where young, talented people feel that they have no choice but to leave, and they're primarily in the south. I don't know where your Italian bartender came from in Italy, but of course he chose Wales and he's happy here, and I'm glad that he is here, and long may he stay here because he sounds—based on the experience you had—a very good member of the community and a hard-working person, which is not the way that the Brexit Party portrays foreign nationals on a normal basis.

I think what's important is that we recognise that Wales should be and always has been a very welcoming place to foreign nationals. Whilst we enjoy the company of Italians and many other European citizens here in Wales, many European countries enjoy the presence of British people, and I'm really concerned that the rhetoric that we hear now across the UK, but primarily from some of the right-wing elements of the media, give the impression to the outside world that we are looking inward, that we are no longer welcoming and that we resent the presence of foreign nationals in the UK. That is a very, very dangerous position to be in. And we alone as a Welsh Government cannot combat the impression that I'm afraid is emerging across the globe of the United Kingdom as a little England. We need the UK Government to behave far more responsibly in the messages that it sends out about what sort of country we want to be in the twenty-first century, and I want us to be an internationalist country.