Thank you. We now turn to spokespersons' questions and the first this afternoon is the Conservative spokesperson, Russell George.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. Minister, according to the latest UK economic outlook from PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Welsh economy will grow by just 1 per cent this year and fall back slightly in 2020 with a small growth rate of just 0.8 per cent. Are you happy with the PwC analysis that the Welsh economy will grow at one of the slowest rates of any part of the UK next year? And in response to this research, what specific steps is your Government taking to address low productivity?

Well, no, I'm not happy, and it's quite clear that Brexit continues to suppress growth, particularly here in Wales, where 60 per cent of our exports are reliant on the 500 million customers within the European Union. In order to drive up productivity, we, through the economic action plan, are focusing our grants, our loans—our business support in all forms—on those businesses of the future: those businesses that are going to be futureproofed in terms of artificial intelligence and digitalisation.

A great example of how we are using our resources strategically in this regard came last Thursday when we opened the Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre in north Wales—a centre that will lead to the securing of the Wing of Tomorrow programme and which will inject £4 billion in gross value added to the regional economy. That's a perfect example of how we are using our resources to drive up productivity.

It's worth saying that, since devolution, Wales has had the fifth highest increase in GVA per head compared to the 12 UK countries and English regions. But there is no doubt whatsoever that the growth of the economy is being suppressed by the disaster that is Brexit.

Well, Minister, devolution was intended to significantly improve the economic performance of Wales, and yet when it comes to re-energising the Welsh economy, instead of taking that opportunity to proactively boost the economy, I would suggest that the Government has failed to create the right conditions to attract inward investment.

In your response, Minister, you talked about offering grants to various businesses, but I would say, instead, the Welsh Government's business policy has very much focused on throwing money at businesses like Kancoat, Mainport Engineering and Griffin Place Communications—all received Government funding and all are failed projects. I would absolutely accept that the Government does need to take risks. I accept that. But you have to also take into account that balance between risk and benefit, and I do believe that that balance is wrong. And the auditor general accepts this himself, saying that

'The Welsh Government has not yet implemented an approach to balancing potential risks and benefits'.

So, can I ask, Minister, with such a list of poor investments, how can the people of Wales be confident that the Welsh Government can make responsible decisions when it comes to Welsh businesses and managing the Welsh economy effectively?

For every list of so-called poor investments, we can produce a list of successful investments, investments in businesses like Aston Martin Lagonda, who are choosing to make Wales their home of electrification; of businesses like INEOS Automotive, who we've secured very recently in the face of fierce competition from around the world; businesses like Airbus, who we are helping to secure the future of the Wing of Tomorrow programme for. I think it's important to say that we're often accused of being risk averse in Welsh Government. We are equally accused of having too high a risk appetite. Having the balance right is incredibly difficult to achieve in the eyes and minds of every single person.

Many of the investments that the Member has outlined and could outline are investments in the past that predate the economic action plan, and specifically the economic contract, which must be signed by businesses seeking our financial resource. And within the economic contract, they have to clearly demonstrate how they have growth potential, not just themselves but also for the supply chain; how they're promoting fair work; how they're leading to decarbonise Wales and their own footprint; and also how they're contributing to the improvements in health and mental health within the workforce. This is an important development over the past 18 months, which is intended not just to drive productivity, but also to drive inclusive growth, and that is something that we're incredibly proud of.

In addition, all evidence now shows that support for businesses from Business Wales has led to higher survival rates than amongst businesses that do not have Business Wales support, and, as a consequence of years of strategic investment, we now have near-record-high employment rates, record-low inactivity rates, more businesses in existence than ever before in Wales, a higher birth rate here in Wales than the UK average, and crucially important, we now have opportunities emerging right across Wales for businesses to start up through that support that Business Wales offers. 

Thank you for the answer, Minister. I do appreciate it's a difficult job getting that risk right between risk and getting that balance right between the two, but, of course, the auditor general has said that 

'The Welsh Government has not yet implemented an approach to balancing potential risks and benefits'.

Of course, one area that we do need to focus on is in relation to our small and medium-sized businesses because they do face a very uncertain time at the moment with competition from online companies and also we're seeing reduced footfall that is greater, unfortunately, in Wales, on our Welsh high streets, than in other parts of the UK. So, over the past week, I've been promoting—I know other Members around this Chamber have been promoting—Small Business Saturday, a campaign promoting people to shop locally, particularly this weekend.

I was also pleased to attend the launch of the Association of Convenience Stores' report yesterday, hosted by my colleague Janet Finch-Saunders. Some of the issues that they raise in their report are absolutely devolved to the Welsh Government, issues like business rates, extending the high street rate relief beyond March 2020, scrapping business rates altogether, planning, also protecting retail centres and ensuring that the planning system enables retailers to diversify more easily. Some of these areas are being done in other parts of the UK that are not being done in Wales.

So, I would say, Minister, with Small Business Saturday coming up this weekend, can you tell us what the Welsh Government is doing specifically to support Welsh businesses? And can you also tell us what new actions your Government will now take to create the right conditions for growth for small, medium-sized and independent businesses here in Wales?

Can I thank Russell George for that question and echo his support for Small Business Saturday? I do hope that all Members will support that initiative and will encourage their constituents to do so as well.

There are many, many areas of support that the Welsh Government offers that contribute to the vibrancy of town centres as they face an incredibly challenging period, not least because of consumer behaviours leading to more orders going online and less on our high streets. But one new particular initiative that I think the Member will be interested in is one that is being developed by my colleague Hannah Blythyn, and that concerns a 'town centre first' approach, not just in terms of retail, but also in terms of where the public sector choose to invest in offices and facilities. I think it's vitally important that we look at the example in Pontypridd over how Transport for Wales has chosen to invest within the town centre there, which, in turn, is leading to further investment by other businesses. This is the sort of model that we now wish to see rolled out right across the length and breadth of Wales. And, of course, the finance Minister is very aware of the need to ensure that the business rates regime benefits those businesses that are facing an uncertain future.

Plaid Cymru spokesperson, Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Thank you very much, Deputy Presiding Officer. Minister, we know that delays on trains and overcrowding on trains can have a direct impact on the economy and productivity in Wales. A number of workers in Wales have to decide to leave home earlier in order to get on a train or to get to work on time; others arrive at their workplace late. Has the Government made an assessment of how much delay and overcrowding of trains cost the economy, including hours lost in the workplace?

We are able to, on a periodic basis, calculate the amount of time lost and then, setting that against average earnings, we are able to assess the sort of loss to the economy as a whole. Clearly, we do not wish to see any time lost for passengers and we don't wish to see a penny lost for the economy, and that's why we're investing £5 billion in this franchise period in the new franchise agreement, including £800 million for new rolling stock and almost £200 million for improved stations.

We're also integrating public transport better through legislation, including the buses (Wales) Bill and further reforms on bus services; the introduction of better infrastructure for active travel and for bus rapid transport, so that people can choose to leave their car at home in full knowledge that they'll be able to get to work by public transport in just as little time as they would by their own car, if not in less time than that.

Overcrowding can make it an unpleasant experience on a train. I heard from a member of Plaid Cymru's team here in the Assembly earlier, as it happens, about trying to travel down on the train from Maesteg to the Barbarians' game over the weekend, and passengers couldn't get on the train because trains were full. My own daughter was telling me of a journey across the north Wales line in the last few weeks where people were standing in the toilet because the train was overcrowded. It's not acceptable.

We know we have a lack of capacity now and, of course, you talk of your ambition to increase capacity, which is good, but it is concerning to note that the capacity for the new trains, the new FLIRT trains, coming in in 2023, and the capacity quoted by Transport for Wales for standing passengers is higher than the figure quoted on the manufacturer's data sheet. The manufacturer's figures are based on providing 0.3 sq m per person, while Transport for Wales use 0.25 sq m. It's the lowest in the UK, I think, as most operators use 0.45 sq m. Even London overground have moved to using 0.35 since 2017.

You keep on telling us about your plans to increase capacity, but it sounds to me as if what you're planning to do is just stack them high, and that won't make for a good passenger experience.

No, not at all, not with the order book amounting to £800 million and state-of-the-art trains coming into being from 2023. TfW use industry guidance and industry standards when it comes to calculating capacity, and I'm pleased to say that on the Maesteg line we will see class 170 trains introduced. They'll be among the 12 class 170s that will be rolled out from December this year, in the short term ensuring that capacity issues are addressed while we await the new rolling stock from 2023.

We're talking about overcrowding now, and a lack of capacity now, at a time, of course, when we want more people to use trains in the future. One thing that's done to try to persuade more older people to use the train is to allow them to use concessionary bus passes for various discounts. Some lines allow free travel.

A rail user from the north contacted me, though, after hearing about what was on offer to passengers in other parts of Wales. There is a third off tickets to travel on the Cardiff and Valleys network off peak—which is good, of course—but there is no equivalent discount for travellers in the north. Now, I find that unacceptable. We need to treat rail users equally, wherever they are. I'm grateful for a letter that I've received from you, saying that you will introduce a 10 per cent discount across the north. Why a third off in one part of Wales and 10 per cent off in another?

I've been scribbling here too, comparing two similar journeys, one of them in the Cardiff and Valleys area. Treherbert to Cardiff is 25 miles and a train ticket costs £6.10. That sounds about right to me. With a third off, that's down to £4. Holyhead to Bangor is 25 miles again—the same distance. That's over £10 a journey. With 10 per cent off, that brings it down to £9. How come you can pay £4 for a journey in one part of Wales, and over £9—more than double that—in another part of Wales? It sounds to me, and it will sound to a lot of people, with figures like that and a lack of equality for passengers that Labour's railway is not a railway that treats passengers equally wherever they are in Wales. 

I should just remind Members from the outset that some fares are regulated fares, regulated by the UK Government, and others are in our control. Where they are in our control, we've seen an average—as has been publicly recognised recently—decrease of 1 per cent in fares. In some parts of Wales, there will be very considerable decreases in fares, including in north Wales. Rhun ap Iorwerth is right to point to the 10 per cent reduction there. Across the network, there has been a 34 per cent discount in off-peak fares set by TfW for annual season ticket holders, for themselves and up to one accompanying person within defined geographic boundaries. Now, that's important.

So, too, is concessionary off-peak travel for under-11s. We're moving towards a far fairer fare regime for young people. We are offering concessionary off-peak travel for under-16s, and the student railcard will be more beneficial as well, and the saver railcard. Wherever we can, we are introducing a fairer fare regime for passengers. I'm pleased that whether it be in north Wales, where we're seeing a 10 per cent decrease in those fares, or whether it be on the Rhymney line, where—as was talked about earlier—anytime day return tickets will reduce by 9.52 per cent, we are introducing a strong degree of social justice to the public transport fare regime.

Thank you. The Brexit Party spokesperson, David Rowlands.

Diolch, Dirprwy Lywydd. Following the announcement in June this year that the automotive company TVR had selected a west Wales company to furnish their factory unit on the Ebbw Vale automotive technology site, which was a very welcome announcement in itself—that they had chosen a Welsh company to do that—can the Minister give us an update on the progress made so far with regard to the refurbishment of that unit? And, can he give us any indication as to the actual commencement of car production by TVR? 

Of course. Discussions are ongoing with the company, and we are awaiting their confirmation that they have raised the requisite investment.

Well, I thank the Minister for his answer. My question really was made more in hope than in expectation, given that, obviously, the actual dates for commencement would be with the TVR company itself.

Turning to the development of the park itself, can you give us any details as to other companies that have expressed an interest in coming to Ebbw Vale, and could you confirm reports that the Williams Advanced Engineering Ltd company, part of the Williams Formula 1 team, are still interested in developing a presence on the site? This, after all, is a vital project if we are ever to revitalise an area that has been in the economic doldrums since the closure of the steelworks some 17 years ago.

I'm delighted to be able to say that I'll be with Williams tomorrow, at the automotive summit that we've convened, and at the dinner tomorrow evening for the Wales automotive forum. I'm sure they wouldn't be present in Wales tomorrow if they weren't interested in a presence in Wales for the longer term. I'll be discussing it with them, and, of course, if we can attract such a prestigious company, then Welsh Government will be fully supportive.