3. What steps is the Counsel General taking to ensure that farmers are central to any future international trade agreements? OQ55817

We have been very clear with the UK Government that any future free trade agreements must not undermine our agriculture sector. Our farmers must not be undercut by unfair competition from imports that do not meet our standards on food safety, animal health and welfare or the environment.

Thank you. Of course, you'll be aware that the Prime Minister and Mrs von der Leyen have agreed to redouble efforts on the post-Brexit trade deal. Indeed, the UK-Japan comprehensive economic partnership agreement has now been signed, providing a boost for UK brands with protections for more iconic UK agricultural products, from just seven under the terms of the EU-Japan deal to over 70, including Welsh lamb. And, as you advised in the written statement on 3 November 2020, the UK Government has now signed 21 roll-over, continuity agreements so far and negotiations are ongoing with approximately 17 others. However, you have noted previously that many of these countries are small and have little trade with Wales. Now, devolved administrations have meaningful engagement with the UK Government, such as through the ministerial forum for trade. So, what steps are you taking to boost exports, especially of agricultural produce to countries with which we have an agreement so far but very little trade? Thank you.

Well, that's an important question from the Member. The reason that the trade levels are so low are because of the pattern of trade in terms of our red meat exports with the European Union, which means that 90 per cent of our lamb exports end up in the European Union, for example, and that is as a result of farmers in Wales making a perfectly rational decision to export to one of the largest markets in the world that is right on their doorstep. As I say, that's a perfectly rational economic decision. I would have thought they were probably assuming the UK Government would make perfectly rational economic decisions as well, which obviously they aren't making in this particular context. I know that she will join with me in regretting the remarks of Liz Truss, for example, which appeared to criticise Welsh farmers for putting their eggs in one basket. If Welsh farmers' interests are not protected in the context of these negotiations, that will not be their fault; it will be the fault of the UK Government.

In the context of trade agreements with other countries, we absolutely welcome any opportunity to enhance the markets available for Welsh farmers. There is no question about that. We will support food producers, we will support exporters in any way that we can, and we do that already of course. But the reality of the situation is that the contribution that those markets will make to the exports will be significantly smaller for basic economic reasons than the current level of exports to the EU. That's not to say we shouldn't pursue those opportunities—we should and we are, but I think there needs to be a sense of reality about the capacity of those agreements to replicate even a fraction of the trade that would be lost with the European Union.

Analysis from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board suggest that World Trade Organization tariffs could add anything from 38 per cent to 91 per cent to the price of British sheep meat for European buyers, as well as the non-tariff barriers for trade, which we all know. China, the world's largest importer of sheep meat, impose an ad valorem tariff of 12 per cent to 15 per cent on lamb and 23 per cent on mutton imports, but have a free trade agreement in place with both New Zealand and Australia, who are their main suppliers. Does the Counsel General share my concern regarding sheep farming if we have a 'no deal' exit from the European Union and we have to try and compete with New Zealand and Australia on price?

I thank Mike Hedges for that question. I do share his concern. The end of transition action plan that we published this morning identifies the risks that he describes in his questions to the red meat sector should we end the transition period without the kind of trade deal that he talks about. That is why it's so important to ensure that we don't find ourselves in that position, and if we should find ourselves in that position, the plan describes the sort of support that farmers in Wales are going to need, which would be very significant support. Now, some of the work that we did in terms of the contingency planning at the end of last year, when we faced the risk of leaving without any kind of agreement, will have stood us, to some extent, in good stead this year, but it is certainly the case that if we leave without a deal, the kind of scale of intervention that will be required would need significant support on a cross-UK basis.