The first item this afternoon is the emergency question, which is to be asked to the First Minister, and it will be asked by Paul Davies.

Will the First Minister make a statement on the Welsh Government’s proposals to introduce further restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic? (EQ0008)

The virus cases in Wales continue to rise, putting our NHS under intense and sustained strain, from a combination of pandemic and winter pressures. The conditions have been met in Wales to move to alert level 4, as set out in the document published—[Interruption.]

Sorry, First Minister. I think you can carry on.

Apologies, Llywydd. Conditions have been met in Wales to move to alert level 4, as set out in the document published on Monday of this week. We will introduce new tightened measures to protect people's health and to save lives.

Thank you for that response, First Minister. Of course, it's deeply regrettable that Wales is at the point where further nationwide restrictions will be implemented to combat the dramatic rise in COVID-19 cases across the country, and this will be a bitter blow for many people across Wales who have complied with Government restrictions all year long and now face further restrictions on their lives. However, the figures speak for themselves, and given that the R rate is now above 1.4 in Wales, and because the confirmed case rate has exceeded the threshold for alert level 4 in the coronavirus control plan, then I can very much understand the basis of the Welsh Government's decision.

Firstly, there will be many people who will understandably question perhaps the proportionality of these measures, particularly those people that live in areas like Gwynedd and Ynys Môn. So, can the First Minister confirm that these arrangements will be reviewed and that targeted restrictions will be brought forward for specific areas if the scientific evidence permits? Of course, at present, these measures will follow a period of relaxation in restrictions between 23 and 27 December, where people from Wales will be permitted to travel across the UK. And I know that the Welsh Government and the UK Government have been discussing the Christmas period over the past 24 hours, and I understand that a statement will be forthcoming in due course. But perhaps the First Minister could make it clear exactly what the arrangements are in relation to travel, both within Wales and, indeed, across other parts of the United Kingdom as well.

It's also crucial that there is adequate funding and resources in place to underpin the move to level 4 restrictions in Wales, so that people and businesses that need support can have access to it. We simply can't allow people and businesses to bear the brunt of these restrictions without Government support. And so, can he tell us what additional support has been earmarked for level 4 restrictions, and can he confirm that support will be made available urgently and not further down the line?

Now, support must be forthcoming for people who need it in terms of their mental health, and I seriously hope that the Welsh Government is prioritising mental health services and support to ensure that people will be supported throughout this period. Therefore, can the First Minister tell us more about the assistance that he will be making available during the alert level 4 period?

Whilst these restrictions are being introduced during a period where children and young people are not in school and in university settings, there will still be some concerns over what this announcement may mean for the start of the next academic term. And so, can the First Minister confirm what discussions are taking place with the education sector about the impact of level 4 restrictions? And can he confirm that he still intends to allow children and students to return to schools, colleges and universities in January?

The Welsh Government also has a duty to effectively communicate any precautionary measures to the people of Wales in order to instil public confidence and compliance with these new measures. And so, between now and 26 December, can he tell us what guidance and communication will be made by the Welsh Government, to ensure the people of Wales fully understand the new measures, how they can actually access support, and, crucially, why these restrictions are now being implemented in the first place?

And, finally, Llywydd, perhaps the First Minister could tell us how these restrictions will be evaluated alongside the vaccine deployment programme, as that will also have an important role in tackling the virus over the Christmas period. The people of Wales need hope, and the vaccine programme is an important part of reminding the people that there is light at the end of this very dark tunnel and we have to be positive about the progress being made on this front. Therefore, it's crucial that further detail is now provided on these matters, and I welcome any further updates that the First Minister is able to give in his response. Diolch, Llywydd. 

Llywydd, I thank the leader of the opposition both for his understanding of the conditions that have led to today's announcement and for the detailed questions that he has posed. It is our intention that these will be all-Wales restrictions, despite the fact that there is variation in the level of coronvirus in different parts of Wales. Coronavirus is rising in every part of our country, and we have an obligation to take the action that will protect all parts of our country, and that is why we will do this on an all-Wales basis. But, as Paul Davies acknowledged, the document published on Monday sets out a path through which, if some parts of Wales in a reliable and sustainable way demonstrated that they were in a different part of the spectrum to other parts of Wales, that can be recognised through different levels of restriction. We are not in that position here today. But I've given a commitment today that we will review the level 3, level 4 restrictions three weeks after they are introduced, and that will give us an opportunity to see whether that reliable, sustainable differentiation has been achieved. 

On travel arrangements, the travel arrangements for the five days of the Christmas period are not changing. The advice to people will be strengthened today in the joint statement that we will publish from all four Governments, urging people only to travel where necessary, and particularly not to travel from high-incidence to low-incidence areas, and I very much endorse that advice, which will be set out later in the afternoon.

As for funding, we will provide a further enhanced level of funding beyond the £340 million we have already announced. We will make details of that available before the end of this week. We will look to use, as much as possible, established means of getting help from the Welsh Government to the businesses who require it, because using established mechanisms means that we can do it most swiftly. And I reported to the Senedd yesterday that, in the package of measures originally announced when changes were made to hospitality, millions of pounds have already been put into the hands of businesses that are affected, and I'm very grateful indeed to our local authority colleagues for the help that they are providing in that. 

We rehearsed yesterday and the leader of the opposition made a number of important points about mental health, Llywydd. I won't repeat them here, other than to say that, in the balance of harm that lie behind all the decisions we make as a Government, the impact on people's mental health and well-being is always consciously part of the calculation that we make, and we go on doing that, and the services that we provide to help people with the impact of changes on their mental well-being will be there in the post-Christmas period.

There are discussions going on, of course, about the start of the next term of education. I discussed this matter myself with the education Minister yesterday, and she continues to be directly engaged with local education authorities, trade unions, parents and others. It remains a significant priority for the Welsh Government to make sure that children do not lose out on education, and that is how we will approach the start of the next school term.

Finally, to agree with what Paul Davies said about the importance of offering people some hope, even in these very difficult times, vaccination will continue as planned during the level 4 restriction period. We've had the first vaccination of care home residents happening in Wales today. Despite the very significant short-term challenges we face, the prospects into next year are different, and communicating that to our fellow citizens remains part of how we will help people to deal with the difficulties that we know are faced in individual lives by the circulation of the virus in Wales. 

We called yesterday for you, First Minister, to give urgent consideration to introducing tier 4 restrictions earlier than the twenty-eighth, if, as is clear, many areas in Wales are already at the level of severity that is set out in the document that you published. So, we welcome that. The obvious question is, given that many areas in Wales are already at that level of severity, why wait even until Christmas evening and the days following. Why not intervene earlier, particularly in those areas of the highest infection? In relation to some areas of Wales, for instance, in the north-west—I believe, there were no new cases in Ynys Môn yesterday—is there not a case still, given that you've conceded the principle of having a regionalised or localised approach as appropriate, why that regional approach shouldn't be also implemented earlier to reflect what does seem to be a different pattern in those parts of Wales? 

In relation to the Christmas relaxation, I welcome the new guidance from the Welsh Government, but isn't there a danger that if the guidance and the rules are not aligned, that could lead to mixed messaging and confusion? And I say that particularly given the very different message coming out of London and Westminster this afternoon, where the Prime Minister, in the last hour, has been on his feet saying that there was 'unanimous agreement' that the Christmas plans must still go ahead. And he's been characterising the leader of your party as the Christmas Grinch who would steal Christmas, and he's been the one defending it. He said some rather negative things about the Welsh Government's policy in relation to the firebreak as well at the same time. So, it seems to me that there is a danger, because of the mixed messaging, that people won't get the message that you're trying to get out that we're in a different situation in Wales, and, as a result of that, we can't relax the rules in the same way and, unless you change the rules, people might draw the wrong conclusion, First Minister. So, I'd like you particularly to address this point as to whether we need to change the rules in order to back up the clear guidance that you have now embraced. 

On a more general level, we've had a number of changes in Welsh Government policy in short order, haven't we, over the last six weeks? So, we had the firebreak. We believe we came out of the firebreak too abruptly. We said that at the time—that there should have been a kind of buffer phase of still higher restrictions. We went then to probably, actually, at the time, First Minister, one of the most liberal regimes in terms of rules anywhere in the UK for a period, then we moved into what some would have seen as a fairly rapid or draconian shift to higher restrictions. Now, we've had this announcement today. I think the Welsh Government has, relatively speaking—compared, certainly, to the UK Government—had high levels of approval, largely because of the consistency and the cautious, slow and steady approach that you've adopted for most of the pandemic. Do you think that that has been undone over the last few weeks? How can you rebuild that sense of a clear, consistent line so we don't have a chopping and changing approach, where we're going in and out of restrictions, and that is causing confusion and some degree of public fatigue, so that, where we're now moving, sadly, into a situation where we have to increase the level of restrictions again, we can see a clear and consistent path to driving the level of prevalence down and moving down the tiers, rather than having to move them up and down, as we've seen, unfortunately, over the last few weeks?

The leader of Plaid Cymru asked me, 'Why wait?' Well, because we are, as ever, balancing many different types of harm. Practically the only thing that we could do today that we are not doing until Christmas Eve is to close all non-essential retail. Of course, we have looked very carefully at whether we should do that now, but he will know that for so many firms in Wales, this trading period up to Christmas is the most important couple of weeks in the whole of the calendar year.

We are balancing harms to the economy, as we balance harms to health. We are balancing issues of equality as well; the poorer you are, the closer to Christmas you go out and buy things because you have to wait to know how much money you've got in your pocket to do that. We could close non-essential retail today and those people who are fortunate enough to have had money already, or who can easily buy things on-line, would find ways around it and those families who are already the most disadvantaged in Wales would find themselves further disadvantaged again. There are a series of different harms that you are forever having to balance. Our view is that the balance that we have struck, being clear that immediately after Christmas there will be significant new restrictions because of the health harms that we face, together with the things that we are doing in the period up to Christmas, strikes the best balance that we can find.

The leader of Plaid Cymru asked me why particularly did we not introduce those changes in areas of highest infection. Well, the answer is they simply wouldn't be effective. To close non-essential retail in some parts of Wales is no guarantee at all that people would not then make their way to other parts of Wales where shops are open. It simply would not be an effective measure to take and it would be a gesture without an impact. I don't think we want to be in that territory. Having asked me why I didn't do more in some areas, he asked me why I didn't do less in others, and the answer to that is that we continue to have strong advice that national measures—single messages conveyed everywhere in the clearest way we can—have the most opportunity to be observed and therefore to be effective. I will not offer a lower level of protection for some parts of Wales than others while I believe that that would save people's lives.

And while it is true that at the moment—at the moment—things are not as bad in Gwynedd and Ynys Môn as they were in those counties just a couple of weeks ago, and as bad as their neighbours find themselves, I do not feel that we have as yet a reliable pattern, and a pattern that gives us confidence, that those areas will continue to be at those lower levels into the future so that you would be prepared to offer them a lower level of protection. What has happened in London over the last few days has borne out everything that the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has told us: that lower levels of protection simply lead to higher levels of infection in the future. I don't want to see that happen in any part of Wales. As I said to Paul Davies, however, if a genuine, reliable and sustainable pattern of differentiation were to establish itself, then the review period at the end of three weeks will allow us to attend to that, and the plan we published on Monday gives us a path to regional differentiation. We are not in that position today; it would not be in the interests of the communities that Adam Price pointed to.

Llywydd, I'm not responsible for the Prime Minister's unfortunate views, and there is no mixed message here in Wales. The message that I have been giving I repeat now: the position in Wales is so serious that over the Christmas period, only two households should think of coming together in the single extended household we already have. We will, for those five days, allow a single-person household to join with that extended household, but that is the full extent of household mixing that we should see here in Wales. We agreed in the four-nation meeting today a strengthened set of messages that will apply in every part of the United Kingdom. We also agreed that it was essential that we were still able to respond to the different patterns that we see across the four nations. I am fully signed up to the joint statement that we will make as four nations this afternoon, and I am fully signed up to the message that I have been giving throughout the last hour and a half that here in Wales, two households only should come together.

Adam Price points to the fact that we have had changing patterns of coronavirus here in Wales and that we've had to respond to them. I don't agree with him that most people in Wales would have regarded the terms on which we came out of our firebreak as liberal; only two households in Wales have been able to meet together, only four people have been able to meet together in any outdoor venue. Those are extraordinary restrictions on people's normal ability to meet with one another and they've been in place here in Wales ever since the firebreak ended. Of course, we are all having to calibrate our response to the changing pattern we see. It's only a week ago that the leader of Plaid Cymru was urging me to keep pubs open for longer and complaining that I wasn't allowing for alcohol to be served. Today, he recognises the different position that we are in in Wales. All of us are having to think about the response we make because the virus changes in front of us every day, and the impact it makes on our public services changes as well.

I thank the leader of Plaid Cymru for what he said about the document we published on Monday; it was intended to provide greater clarity for people about the pathways that exist between the different levels of intervention we need here in Wales. We have had to say today that the detail that that document provides on level 4 restrictions will come into place in Wales immediately after Christmas, but it also sets out for people how things can be different in the future. When conditions allow, we will move from those very severe restrictions and necessary restrictions in the post-Christmas period to a different future, and in doing so, I believe we will continue to have the solid support of the vast majority of people here in Wales.

Can I say I fully support the decisions of the First Minister? But we are moving into the most dangerous seven days of the year: office party time. What is the Welsh Government doing to try and stop these parties taking place? Some will have food, some will have drinks, some will take place in the office, but these office parties—we've got to try and stop them happening. Whilst families meeting have a short chain, office parties—followed by returning home, possibly via public transport—have an elongated series of chains.

Mike Hedges makes a very important point, which I'm very keen to reinforce. Of course we are not in a period where large numbers of people coming together to mix in any circumstances ought to be contemplated with anybody prepared to take their responsibilities seriously. And in a workplace setting, not only will there be individuals who ought to take that responsibility, but there will be people in charge of those settings bound by the regulations we have here in Wales that, in the workplace, all necessary measures must be taken to protect against the danger that coronavirus provides. So, let me be clear: it would be entirely against those regulations, and entirely in breach of the responsibility of those people who are in charge of office settings, if office parties of the sort that Mike Hedges described were to take place. In other settings, in hospitality settings, then of course the restrictions we have already put in place would deal with that, because no more than four people are able to come together in such settings from four different households. So, I do hope that nobody thinks that this is an opportunity to try to stretch, bend or break those rules, and that no setting thinks that this is the moment in which they should connive in that sort of activity. The position in Wales is far beyond the point where anybody should believe that that would be something sane or defensible to do.

I rise to speak, obviously, in support of the First Minister. My overriding reaction to today's announcement is relief. We look at the numbers, and we listen to the health officials and the front-line NHS staff, just in my own region, and the situation is in extreme danger of spiralling out of control. They're not my words, of course; those are the words of those people who had to make those very difficult decisions. You, First Minister, and your Cabinet, have equally had to make some very difficult decisions, and I commend you for doing that. Nobody wants to stand up and say to other people, 'You can't do what it is you want to do'. But you have to also take note of those people who we've all heard on the radio, on the tv, on Twitter—those health professionals asking us to take action. And we can't ignore that. I hope that everybody who speaks today—and I'm really pleased that those who have spoken so far do—reflects that situation, and the seriousness of it, and the unsustainable pressure that is arising on our NHS staff. We are, of course, we all know, in the winter months, and normally there are areas of pressure, but if you add in COVID-19 figures to that, then I think it's pretty obvious to anybody that understands those figures that urgent action had to be taken—

You need to come to a question now, Joyce Watson, please.

There is light at the end of the tunnel—what has been and remains a very dark tunnel—and I'm really pleased to hear what you've said. But I have one request today, First Minister. I ask if you'll send out a message to people about supermarket workers. We've all seen the fact that they have suffered this year, more than any other year, abuse in the shops, so will you please join with me in asking people, as they rush to buy food, that they pay respect to those supermarket and shop workers who will be working to serve them so that they get what they need and what they want?

Can I thank Joyce Watson for what she has said? One of the prime reasons why the Cabinet decided to bring forward this announcement to today was to make sure that people who work at the front line of our health and social care services knew that their Government was taking action on their behalf. We have been assessing this over a number of days, so we know that we were preparing for this moment, but there is no reason why they should know that, and that sense of relief that Joyce Watson referred to I think will be shared by those people who now know that actions are being taken in Wales, that we are not shying away from them, that we will not do what is sometimes the easy thing in avoiding the difficult messages Governments have to share.

So, I think we will be reinforcing the best instincts of people in Wales, because most people in Wales want to do the right thing. They want to make their contribution. They want to know that their Government is providing the context that allows them to play their part in this great national effort, and the reason for making this decision and announcing it today was to attend to the views of our front-line workers, but to give our fellow citizens the time they need in order to make the preparation for the changes that they will now have to abide by.

That will undoubtedly place even greater pressure on those people who throughout this pandemic have turned up to work every day in our supermarkets, putting themselves in harm's way in order to make sure that the rest of us are able to go out and get the food we need, even at the point of the greatest restrictions on other parts of our lives. Let me say this afternoon, Llywydd: I look to the supermarkets themselves to make sure that they take every action to protect those spaces as places where public health needs to be observed, and to protect their staff in the work that they do.

I look to the supermarkets to make sure that they set maximum limits for the number of people who should be inside a supermarket at any one time; that they police that carefully at the front door, that when they have one-way systems in their stores that those one-way systems are there to be observed, not simply to be put on the floor; that they provide advice regularly to people over the tannoy so that people understand what is expected of them; that when people come to queue to leave the supermarket and to pay for their goods, that that is done in a way that respects the public health crisis we are in, and respects the workers who are there to help the rest of us.

So, I am absolutely happy to send that message that Joyce Watson asked me to. Those people go into work every day so that the rest of us are able to go and buy the things, those necessities of life, and their contribution should be celebrated and it should be respected as well. 

I thank the First Minister for what he's had to say; it's obviously a very difficult time for everybody. I've got some very specific questions I'd like to ask. First of all, First Minister, how will this affect hotels, many of which have taken bookings for the period twenty-third to the twenty-seventh? They assumed they were safe to do that. If hospitality is closing down completely on Christmas Day, how does that affect those hotels? They need to know now, First Minister, because if they must cancel bookings, then they must do that straight away. 

There will be some businesses, First Minister, for whom this opening and shutting and opening and shutting isn't sustainable. We have spoken to your Government before about the need, potentially, for long-term support to enable some businesses to hibernate into the next spring period. I know you'll be very well aware of the costs to businesses of opening and shutting, particularly of hospitality businesses. Can Government give further consideration to how that medium-term support for those businesses that might prefer to hibernate, rather than open and shut, might be provided?

When does he think he might be able to give any idea to those businesses who do want to reopen of what that kind of timescale might be? I do appreciate, First Minister, that it's all down to how the virus behaves and we can't predict that, but it is difficult for businesses if they don't know whether they're looking at reopening in mid January, no consideration of that being possible until the end of January. Can he give them any other guidance? 

And finally, with regard to what he said today about only two households meeting in Wales for Christmas, can he just clarify for us—is that advice from the Welsh Government now, is that guidance, or will that be law? Because I think, as you said, First Minister, in response to a number of people already today, it's really important that people understand what's required of them. He'll forgive me, I'm sure, but I'm not sure in my own mind by what you've said so far, if we're talking here about advice, strongly-worded advice, guidance, which is more formal but if you break it, you're not breaking the law, or an actual legal requirement. 

Llywydd, on that final point from Helen Mary Jones, I'll make a final decision on that matter when the statement between the four nations is agreed and published. It provides the context within which that decision must be made. I think it is possible to overstate the significance of the decision. Most of our fellow citizens do not pore over the distinction between guidance and regulation. They want to know what the right thing is to do. And here is the right thing to do: in Wales, two households only should meet over Christmas. There it is. I don't think it can be plainer. I don't think it can be stated any more clearly. Whether we continue to provide that as guidance or regulation will depend on the wider context, which will become clear this afternoon, and I'll make a final decision on that at that point, but the message will be the same. The message is identical in either case, and it's the message, as I think Adam Price said, that is the key thing here, that we get that message over to people as clearly as we can, and I really don't think I could have been clearer in it. 

We are working with hotels and other sectors during the day to give them the clarity that they need. Much of what we have provided already is sufficient to allow for a hibernation period in tourism and some hospitality businesses, and there will be further help as a result of the decisions that we have made today. I'm afraid Helen Mary Jones got it right herself, really, in answering her own question about when businesses can reopen. There will be a three-week review, so we will take all the evidence into account at that point. If it is possible to offer any lightening of restrictions regionally or nationally, of course that is what we would want to do, but it will depend entirely on the extent to which these measures are by then relieving the pressure that we see on the health service today and which is unsustainable unless measures are taken to reverse that trend. If the trend is reversed sustainably within three weeks, that will create one context. If we have to go further and do more in order to make our health service available to people in Wales, not just for coronavirus but all the other things we look for, then that is what we will do.

I thank the First Minister for his answers to the questions today. These are difficult times for businesses, and for communities, and indeed for Government. Those of us who sit on the back benches in this Chamber will know that for every email we get demanding that restrictions be eased, we get another email demanding that restrictions be tightened. It's not easy to take the best decision in those circumstances, and the Welsh Government has taken the right decisions. Nor is it easy to offer regional solutions in Wales. Wales is much, much smaller in land area than both England and Scotland, and it's wishful thinking to believe that the virus can be contained or kept away from one part of Wales. When you cross into the county of Conwy from the east, you do not go through a Checkpoint Charlie. It's easy to cross the boundary, and rightly so. The Menai strait is not the width of the Irish sea, so that does not act as a natural barrier, and people will cross boundaries if they have to. I will join with the leader of the opposition and with my colleague Joyce Watson about the importance of hope. There is light at the end of the tunnel. It's simply a question of how many lives we can preserve until we reach that destination. So, my question, Llywydd, is this: with a view to offering people hope, because there have been inevitably lots of restrictions over the last few months, is the First Minister able to say when we might reach a clinically significant number of vaccinated people, so that at that point people can begin to dream of a return to normality?

Llywydd, I thank Carwyn Jones for those questions and for the insight that he brings, of course, into the continuously challenging balance of judgments that we have to make in the Welsh Government, and of course he is right. When people write to us with very different points of view, it is never because one point of view has all the right things on its side and the other point of view has no merit.

I have been listening very carefully, of course, in recent days to all the messages we are receiving from senior clinicians and front-line workers, just as I have been listening to messages from informal carers in communities in Wales who have told me of the necessity for them to have some wider family support over this Christmas to go on doing all the things that they do every day to look after other people in Wales. One group of people urges me to tighten things, the other group of people urges me not to. Both have very strong arguments to make, as they pass those messages to me. And it is the balancing judgment that Carwyn Jones referred to that we have to have. And, of course, he's right to point to the limitations on regional solutions here in Wales. It's why I keep having to emphasise that what we would have to see established is not a temporary difference between one part of Wales or another, or an oscillating pattern of numbers rising and numbers falling, but a sustained and sustainable difference between some parts of Wales and others. Now, that can happen and may happen over the weeks ahead, and if it does, then our plan allows us to respond to that. But just as we have seen parts of Wales with numbers falling, those same parts of Wales, at different points, have been at the highest end of coronavirus during the months that have gone past. So, we would need to be in a different level of reliability of differentiation in order to take advantage of the decision-making pathway that the plan allows us to go down.

I'll end my reply to Carwyn Jones's question by agreeing with him about the importance of hope. Today, we are vaccinating people who live in care homes for the first time in Wales. We vaccinated a number of people in Wales at the top end of our expectation last week. If we are to get to the volumes that we would wish to see and the impact that we would wish to see in people's lives, then we must look to other vaccinations also receiving regulatory approval in order to get the volume of vaccinations to happen here in Wales. And even with everything being in place and with a huge determination of our health professionals in Wales to make that contribution, I'm afraid we are not going to be in that position until well into the second quarter of next year at the earliest.

I thank the First Minister.