3. Will the First Minister make a statement on using population estimates as a basis for local council funding allocations? OQ56233

Thank you, Llywydd. Population predictions are one of a range of data used to underpin the local government settlement formula. The largest drivers of service expenditure are population levels, deprivation levels and sparsity.

Well, the Welsh Government, of course, has just announced a settlement of 2.3 per cent to Wrexham County Borough Council, the second lowest in Wales. And, as you've just said, this is partially based on new population projections for the county. Now, if these new projections are correct, namely that the population is static, rather than increasing significantly, why is the planning department of your Government insisting that the local development plan in Wrexham has to deal with a significant increase in population? There is a grave inconsistency here at a time when we need consistency and fair play so that councils can plan for the future. So, perhaps you could tell us, First Minister, which department of your Government is right here, the department that says of Wrexham that the population is static or the department that says that the population is increasing substantially. 

Well, Llywydd, I think the Member is mixing up two different sorts of calculations for two different purposes, derived in two different ways. The way that the local government settlement is brought about is the way that I described in my first answer: there is a formula, the formula is agreed with local government here in Wales, the formula is independently verified by the distribution sub-group, which has prominent academics on it who certify every year that the formula has been fairly and accurately applied. Every year, there are local authorities that find themselves gaining because of the way in which factors within the formula move, and there will be local authorities that find themselves not gaining in the way that they would want. But while the formula remains as it is, and as I've always said in the time that I've been responsible for it, if there are proposals that local authorities in Wales can agree on that they wish to bring forward that would allow the formula to be reformed, then of course the Welsh Government will engage in this. But while the formula has the support, as it does, of the Welsh Local Government Association, and while it is based on objective data, independently verified, then we all have to learn to live with it in the years that it suits us and the years when it doesn't.

Because the formula has such wide anomalies, it needs a Government to take leadership, because you can never have agreement between winners and losers within the WLGA. Under your Welsh Government's provisional local government settlement, north Wales councils are again losing out with an average 3.4 per cent increase compared to 4.1 per cent in south Wales and 5.6 per cent for top place, Newport, and as we heard, Wrexham receiving just 2.3 per cent. However, Conwy, which again receives a below-average increase, has the highest proportion of its population in the oldest age group of all Welsh counties, with Anglesey also receiving a below-average increase not far behind in third position out of 22, and every north Wales county having a higher proportion of its population in the oldest age group than Newport—second from bottom—and Cardiff, bottom. How can your formula justify this, despite the weekly statements and protestations in this Senedd highlighting the rights and needs of older people and the need to meet and fund these?

Well, Llywydd, as the Member well knows, this is not the Welsh Government's formula; this is the formula that is agreed with local government in Wales.

It is a Welsh Government formula.

And I hear what he says, and actually, he is very disrespectful of local government when he claims that it's impossible for them to do a job in this area, so somebody else must take it away from them. We every year sit down with a distribution sub-group, the body of experts that gives us advice; that goes to a group of politicians, the finance sub-group on which local authorities are represented from north Wales as well as everywhere else. The Welsh Government responds to the recommendations of that group.

When I was the Minister for local government and finance, Llywydd, in 2017-18, I remember sitting in that finance sub-group when a report on reform of the personal social services data was discussed. That reform had the effect over two years of moving money away from urban south Wales to rural areas in mid, west and north Wales. That was recommended by the distribution sub-group, and despite the fact that most Members of the finance sub-group would see their own local authorities lose out, it was agreed by that group as well. That's the nature of the formula; you update it, you update it objectively, you use the best data you can, and you implement it, and you implement it in a way that does not look to see where the implementation lands geographically; you look to make sure that it is fair, objective, and defensible, right across Wales.