The following amendments have been selected: amendments 1 and 2 in the name of Paul Davies.

I move on now to item 6, the Plaid Cymru debate on the agriculture industry and Brexit, and I call on Simon Thomas to move the motion.

Motion NDM6325 Rhun ap Iorwerth

To propose that the National Assembly for Wales:

1. Notes that European payments comprise 80 per cent of farm income in Wales and that the purpose of these payments has been to ensure reasonably priced, high quality and high welfare food for the consumer.

2. Notes with concern that irresponsible trade deals could lead to Wales being flooded with cheap imported food, harming the agricultural industry, rural economy and public health.

3. Believes that the UK Government must deliver on the promises of its prominent Leave campaigners and guarantee that European funding for agriculture and rural development is replaced its entirety.

4. Believes that, in order to give protection to Welsh farmers and rural communities, the UK Government should seek the endorsement of each UK country before any trade deal is be signed.

Motion moved.

Thank you, Chair, and I do move the motion in the name of Plaid Cymru, and remind ourselves that tomorrow we will be making a very significant decision—all of us—as to how we are going to negotiate a way to leave the European Union while protecting Wales’s interests. The focus of this afternoon’s debate is on how we do that, looking after agriculture and our rural economies in Wales. Because, of all of Wales’s industries, agriculture faces the most uncertainty following the decision to leave the European Union. Without the right trade agreement in place, the right regulatory framework and the right support, the consequences for all our agriculture industry and wider rural economy will be disastrous.

We are only using about 5 per cent of our red meat here in Wales. About 93 per cent of our meat is exported to the EU, that does include the rest of the UK, but it is important that any trade agreement negotiated by the UK Government will preserve and ensure the continuation of our grassland and upland sheep meat and beef rearing and dairy regimes. A trade agreement, for example, with New Zealand, could result in the transposing of the entirety of the current New Zealand lamb quota for imports to the UK after it has exited the EU. That could amount to a 0.25 million tonnes of lamb, currently dispersed across the whole of the EU, coming directly to the UK. According to Hybu Cig Cymru, a scenario where the UK trades with the EU under the WTO rules—the ‘no deal’ scenario—could mean tariffs of 84 per cent on cattle carcasses, 46 per cent on lamb carcasses, and 61 per cent on cuts of lamb. Therefore, no deal would be a bad deal for Welsh agriculture and Welsh rural communities.

The Presiding Officer took the Chair.

The Conservatives called this election on the basis of it being a Brexit general election, and yet they have said nothing about what a good deal for Welsh agriculture would be, what they intend to do, what they intend to negotiate, or indeed the period of time in which they intent to achieve that aim. The Conservative amendments today are somewhat premature as, of course, there will be a change of Government on Thursday. But even if there weren’t to be a change of Government, they’ve already been undermined by their own Prime Minister coming to north Wales yesterday and saying there will be no promise of further support for agriculture in Wales beyond 2020, even though the amendments today from the Welsh Conservative group talk about the whole of the next Parliament. They’ve been undermined by their own Prime Minister, so we will not be supporting their amendments.

I also think it’s very important that we seek the opportunity to really make Welsh agriculture the cutting edge and the future of the way we produce food, not just in Wales, but in the United Kingdom. We have a mostly grassland and upland agriculture industry, 80 per cent of which is termed a less favourable area. Last night in the Assembly, we hosted the Science and the Assembly event, which focused on microbial resistance and antimicrobial resistance—very important for agriculture and human health. We have institutions in Wales that are at the cutting edge of research in this—international cutting edge—and working together, for example, at IBERS in Aberystwyth. We need to ensure that these institutions are not only preserved when we leave the European Union, but are enhanced, further strengthened, and further empowered to continue that work, so that we do get the best level of support for agriculture. That isn’t just about money, it isn’t just about infrastructure, but it’s also about the best research and ideas, because the purpose of Welsh agriculture is to produce high-quality food and drink, underpinned by high animal health and welfare environmental standards.

On the question of quality, I have no doubt that Welsh farmers can compete with anyone anywhere else in the world, but of course that does involve a certain cost, and we have to remind ourselves that the reason we’ve had public support for agriculture in the EU context over 40 years is to ensure that that high-quality food with high welfare standards reaches our shops at a reasonable price. We can have cheap food or we can have high-quality food. We can have cheap food available for everyone, but that means very poor quality of welfare standards. We read only this week of slave labour producing corned beef in the rainforests of Brazil. So, this is a really important thing to get right.

This is why the argument that Plaid Cymru makes today is that ongoing support from Government, when we leave the EU, for Welsh agriculture is essential. That’s why it’s so disappointing that the Conservatives, in an election they called, have been unable to make any such promise. It’s also disappointing that the Welsh Labour manifesto neither makes any such promise to continue support for farmers further than this current Assembly term. I think that is what people will have to bear in mind when they vote tomorrow.

Now, Plaid Cymru has been very clear: we will represent the interests of Welsh farmers and rural communities, and fight for the best trade deal at all times. Lies are told about me, and lies are told about Plaid Cymru. Only this week, the Liberal Democrats, who are no longer present at the moment in the Chamber, claimed that Plaid Cymru was in bed with the Conservatives, UKIP and Labour, all for a hard Brexit. That was the Liberal Democrat leaflet that so shamed the leader of the Liberal Democrats in Wales that he said he was ‘ashamed of the leaflet’ and immediately withdrew it. So, the next day, they sent out a letter instead, which repeated those allegations, only this time they put it in the name of Kirsty Williams, allegedly the leader of the Liberal Democrats in this place.

Plaid Cymru has held several debates on Brexit and the need for support for Welsh farmers going forward. The Liberal Democrats haven’t held one. They claim that we are turning our backs on rural communities, but everyone knows that we have actually fought hard for Welsh agriculture here in this Chamber. The Liberal Democrats are, of course, part of the Welsh Government, and, in fact, a vote for them tomorrow would be vote for a Corbyn-led Government and a Corbyn-led approach to Welsh agriculture, which I don’t think will suit the people in Ceredigion or farmers elsewhere. There’s one or two in Newport that it might suit, but certainly not in Ceredigion. So, there’s a clear choice for people tomorrow: they need to stand up and protect Welsh rural communities. Plaid Cymru is committed to that, and Plaid Cymru will always fight for the best deal for Wales.

I have selected the two amendments to the motion, and I call on Paul Davies to move amendments 1 and 2, tabled in his name.

Amendment 1—Paul Davies

Delete point 3 and replace with:

Notes the commitment of the current UK Government to provide the same cash total in funds for farm support until the end of the next UK parliament.

Amendment 2—Paul Davies

Delete point 4 and replace with:

Notes the commitment of the current UK Government to work with Welsh farmers, food producers, environmental experts and the Welsh Government to devise a new agri-environment system.

Amendments 1 and 2 moved.

Thank you, Llywydd, and I move the amendments tabled in my name. The decision by the people of the UK to leave the European Union, taken last year, is certainly going to have an impact on the agricultural industry in Wales. Without doubt, Brexit will pose challenges and opportunities for Welsh farmers. As we know, over the past few decades, agricultural policies and legislation have been decided to a great extent at a European level. Therefore, it is crucial, in light of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, that farmers do have a fair, permanent framework to safeguard the sustainability of the industry. Today’s motion appropriately notes that European payments currently comprise 80 per cent of farm incomes in Wales, and the purpose of these payments is to ensure high-welfare foods for consumers at a high-quality and reasonable price. I am pleased that the current Prime Minister of the UK has confirmed her support to continue to fund agricultural support at its current level until the end of the next UK Parliament. That has been welcomed by the agricultural industry, and that is in the Conservative Party manifesto. [Interruption.] In just a moment.

Of course, the Welsh Government must also confirm that this funding will be fully allocated for agriculture. As we know, the Barnettisation of funding for agriculture would be disastrous for Welsh farmers because, without allocating that funding, the funding would have to compete with other public services. While the current UK Government has committed to fund at the same levels until the end of the next Parliament, it is a matter for the new UK Government and the devolved Governments, therefore, to work together in order to create a framework that is pan UK, that works for all of the devolved nations, and that ensures the sustainability of farming in the longer term. I give way to the Member for Anglesey.

Thank you very much for giving way. Will the Member accept that there was no threat, of course, to funding for farmers in Wales if we had stayed in the EU? The vote has taken place, of course, but would he accept that whether it is three, four or however many years with regard to the continuation of the funding, that isn’t enough for farmers who are trying to make investment decisions in the long term for the development of their industry?

Of course, what the Member must also bear in mind is that CAP would only continue up until 2020. So, we, as a Government at the UK level, have made it quite clear that we will continue with that level of funding until 2022. Although the scale of the challenge is huge, to say the least, there are also opportunities here. For example, the agricultural policy framework must look in earnest at the current regulatory landscape for farmers and have better ways of supporting farmers. NFU Cymru have told us that poor regulation is often a cause for a lack of confidence in the industry, and that further regulation adds to the workload of farmers. Well, we now have the opportunity to actually transform this landscape and ensure that more voluntary approaches are introduced, and that when regulation is introduced, it is introduced as a result of robust evidence.

Now, agriculture in the UK and in Wales must be in the vanguard of any Brexit negotiations, and the new UK Government must proceed in ensuring trade deals so that export industries, such as farming and the food and drink industry, can continue to do business with European markets. Farmers across Wales are right to be concerned about the terms of access to imports and exports in this climate, and it’s crucial that we don’t let cheaper produce with lower standards into Wales and the UK from other nations. It’s crucial, therefore, that any trade deals are negotiated carefully, with the agricultural industry at the heart of any negotiation.

Of course, we need to establish a trade deal with the European Union that meets the needs of Welsh farmers, and that deal must be ready from the moment that we leave the European Union. Losing any access to export markets in the EU would be disastrous for Welsh farmers, and I very much hope, therefore, that the new Government in the UK will immediately start to work to secure an agreement that not only safeguards our farmers against cheap imports, but will ensure that Welsh farmers can continue to rely on the European Union export markets for the future.

Of course, the sustainability of farming in Wales isn’t just in the hands of the UK Government. Indeed, the Welsh Government continues to have a very important role to play in safeguarding Welsh farmers. The Welsh Government must do everything it can to strengthen the agricultural industry in Wales, and that means tackling some of the long-established issues that Welsh farmers have faced so that there are no threats to our trade negotiations. For example, the NFU is right to draw attention to bovine TB and make it clear that, unless proactive steps are taken to control the source of the infection in wildlife and in cattle, there could be risks to any trade deal in future. These are issues that need to be taken forward by the Welsh Government now, and as these discussions develop, so that the efforts to have the best possible deal for the red meat and dairy industries in Wales aren’t put at risk at all.

So, in conclusion, Llywydd, I want to reiterate once again how important it is to safeguard the sustainability of the farming industry in Wales in the long term. Our cultural heritage, the Welsh language, and the future of our rural areas, is dependent upon that. Thank you.

Listening to Plaid Cymru, you’d think that by staying in the EU the future would be absolutely assured forever and a day, but we know that beyond the current multi-annual framework there is no guarantee of agricultural funding for Wales in the European budget. I remember, when we first joined what was then the European Economic Community 40-odd years ago, agriculture accounted for 65, 70 per cent of the EU budget; it’s now down to 42 per cent. So, over the years, we’ve seen a dramatic reduction in agricultural support throughout the EU, and that figure would be even lower were it not for the accession of eastern Europe countries back in the early years of this century. So, the idea that staying in the EU where unelected bureaucrats—who we can’t even name, let alone influence at the ballot box—are the people you can rely on, rather than the people who sit in this row in front of us in this Chamber, who you can elect and then throw out if you don’t like their decisions, is better is absolute nonsense.

Will you take an intervention?

Yes.

You mentioned the 65 per cent down to 42 per cent. Will you accept that leaving the European Union means that that figure coming from the European Union will be zero in future and that, as it stands, the money coming from the UK Government, or the promise of it, is also zero? So, that’s what we’re negotiating for for Welsh farmers.

Well, clearly, that’s a preposterous proposition, as the Prime Minister has already said that the current funding arrangements will be preserved up to the end of 2022, and no Government can bind its successors, and, as there must be a general election by 2022, any promise given now would be worthless, and therefore not worth making. But it’s all our money anyway, the money that the EU spends here in Wales, and our gross contribution to the EU this year is £13.6 billion. The EU then spends our money in the UK in various ways, including on agriculture, to the tune of £4.3 billion. So, we have a net contribution of £9.3 billion: we pay in £3 to get £1 back. And, as agriculture accounts for 42 per cent of that £9.3 billion, £4 billion of UK taxpayers’ money is spent on agriculture in the EU. That means, in Wales, Welsh taxpayers, on a per capita basis, are spending £200 million a year not on subsidising Welsh farmers, but subsidising continental farmers. That is not a brilliant deal for the Welsh farming community.

Rhun ap Iorwerth rose—

I think I’ve taken one contribution. We’ve only got four minutes to speak, so, regrettably, although I’d like to give way, I don’t think I can.

Obviously, I accept point 3 of Plaid Cymru’s motion. I strongly believe that every single penny of what Brussels currently spends in Wales should be replicated by a UK Government promise, and I don’t think anybody who has the interests of rural Wales at heart would disagree with that. And, of course, who wants an irresponsible trade deal with anybody—as in point 2 of this motion? Of course we want to negotiate the best deal possible, not just with the EU, but also the other countries around the world—150, 160 countries, however many there may be—which constitute 85 per cent of the global economy. The European Union is, of course, very important to us, because they’re our nearest geographical neighbours. And, as Simon Thomas rightly pointed out in his opening speech, of course we have a very significant degree of trade between us that is mutually beneficial, but let’s not forget—[Interruption.] I’m sorry, I can’t give way more than once in the short time I have available, because it’s very important that I make my points rather than allow other Members to make theirs in the course of my speech.

In every single sector of trade in meat, the United Kingdom is in deficit and, in some cases, very substantial deficit. So, there is a massive possibility—if the EU is so foolish as not to want to enter into a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom, there is every prospect that we will be able to substitute what is currently imported with home-produced produce. Let’s just look at the figures: in beef and veal, we import £700 million-worth of meat a year, we export only £150 million; in the case of pork, we import £780 million—sorry, these are figures for 2007. Sorry, I’ll start again. For beef and veal, this year it’s over £1 billion-worth of imports for beef, and we export £369 million. For pork, we import £778 million-worth of meat; we export only £252 million. For lamb, this is the only—lamb and mutton is the only sector where we’re broadly in balance. And, of course, in lamb, there’s a particular problem in prospect if we don’t sort it out, because, as Simon Thomas rightly pointed out, a very substantial proportion of our imports come from New Zealand.

So, of course we must be astute to potential problems that will arise as a result of the massive upheaval that is inevitable in such a change of this kind. We had the reverse upheaval 40-odd years ago, which I remember very, very well, when we moved away from a deficiency payments scheme into a different form of support entirely. These are practical problems that can be sorted out.

But the figures, of course, are very small. This is what we have to remember. The British Government is going to spend, this year, £800 million. The total value of the whole agricultural sector in the entire United Kingdom isn’t even £10 billion. So, these are figures that can easily be accommodated within the United Kingdom budget. And of course we must fight for Wales, as Simon Thomas very rightly said, and that’s what we will do, but the idea that the UK Government’s going to pay the slightest attention to a handful of Plaid Cymru Members is absurd. It’s only UKIP that’s been able to turn the Government on its head, because, without us, there would not have been a referendum in the first place and we wouldn’t now be leaving the EU.

We must all acknowledge that these are uncertain times for the farming community in Wales. Until the full details of the Brexit deal are finalised, Welsh farmers, and, indeed, all UK farmers, are unsure of what the future holds. The truth of the matter, however, is that, if the UK Government makes the right decisions, British farmers should be far better off than they were under the common agricultural policy. Even a cursory glance at what the CAP policy has done for British and Welsh farmers will confirm that it has, in fact, done very little to help the Welsh farming fraternity.

Indeed, it could be argued that all it has achieved is to make Welsh farmers almost entirely dependent on ever-decreasing European farm subsidies. Most farmers in Wales fall into the small farms category. A very large percentage of them are hill farmers who are now amongst the poorest in the whole of Europe. Average wages are said to be around £12,000 per annum for many of these farms—hardly a ringing endorsement of the CAP formula that has applied to British farming over the last 40 years. The same formula has seen many farmers in the south-east of England become millionaires because of their ability to exploit absurd farm subsidy laws. [Interruption.] Yes, please.

Thank you very much for taking the intervention. Is it not the case, though, that, were it not for those CAP payments, farmers who are struggling to get by would have gone out of business altogether, with the untold costs that that would have for them and for Welsh society?

Well, no. I have to disagree with you. What the Welsh farming industry should be asking itself is not what is going to happen post Brexit, but what would have happened if we had not had Brexit. I have to disagree with Rhun ap Iorwerth when he says that the common agricultural policy has been favourable to Welsh farmers. The common agricultural policy is not a static one. The accession of some of the poorest countries in Europe has meant that many of the farmers of these countries qualify for subsidies before Welsh farmers, so UK farm subsidies have been falling year on year for a very long time, and, under European rules, would continue to decline. We then have to ask ourselves: where does the money to pay these farm subsidies come from in the first place? Well, the answer is, of course, from the UK’s contribution to the European Union. It does not take rocket science to extrapolate from this that, if the UK was not subsidising farming across the whole of Europe, there would be a much bigger sum of money to invest in the British and Welsh farming industry. The challenge for us here in this Assembly is to make sure that the UK Treasury passes on these huge savings to the Welsh farming economy in the correct proportions.

Unlike many in this Chamber, I am confident that the great, hard-working, efficient and innovative farming community of the UK and Wales, freed from the excessive bureaucracy and legislative burden of the common agricultural policy, will prosper as never before. Indeed, I have heard one farmer say that, given the way regulations were going under CAP—I’m sorry, I couldn’t finish that one off—it would not have been long before he would be called upon to tag the rats on his farm. We have a duty in this Assembly to protect our farming industry, so we should all unite in making sure that not only do our Welsh farmers not lose out one penny piece on the subsidies they were entitled to before Brexit, but that they should also share in the huge financial gains from the UK being freed from subsidising farming throughout the other 27 countries of the European Union.

I call on the Cabinet Secretary for the Environment and Rural Affairs, Lesley Griffiths.

Diolch, Llywydd. I very much welcome Plaid Cymru’s motion, and we were very pleased we were able to agree with Plaid Cymru our White Paper, ‘Securing Wales’ Future’. It is clear our views on the future of agriculture and rural development post Brexit are close. Most importantly, we are absolutely clear agriculture and rural development is and must remain devolved. We’ve made it very clear we will not tolerate any attempts by the Conservatives to deprive this Assembly of its existing powers, or deprive Wales of funding also, and that’s why we completely oppose amendment 2 from the Conservative group, which clearly reflects the UK Tories’ agenda of taking back control, not just from Brussels, but from Cardiff, also, and probably Edinburgh and Belfast as well.

More generally, we are committed to safeguarding our rural and environmental interests, and explore every opportunity to benefit our farming, land management, and food sectors once we’ve exited the EU. Our focus remains on continuing to deliver key economic, social and environmental benefits to Wales.

The Welsh Government published the figure of 80 per cent of farm income in Wales comprising of European payments. However, it should be noted farm incomes fluctuate—many are negative—however, we agree the majority will rely on CAP funding to some degree.

Following the decision for the UK to leave the EU, I quickly established a round-table group with stakeholders across my portfolio to discuss the implications arising from the referendum vote, and the work of the round table has added significant value, as it’s enabled a cross-sectorial approach to be taken, enabling us to consider the issues in an integrated way, for example on all parts of the supply chain. The farming unions and other stakeholders have been warmly appreciative of this approach. And the process has underlined the strength of the links between areas like agriculture, communities, and the wider environment. It’s also a real strength for Wales’s input and potential influence on the process to have stakeholders actively engaged and collaborating to secure the most beneficial path for Wales as possible. The work of the round-table complements the work we’re undertaking in parallel with each of the individual sectors to consider the detailed sectoral impacts of the UK’s exit from the EU. In March, I committed the final tranche, totalling £223 million, of the 2014-20 rural development programme to make full use of HM Treasury’s guarantee to 2020. But there remains a clear need for longer-term commitments from the UK Government.

It is essential, after we leave the EU, that the UK Government delivers on its promise during the ‘leave’ campaign to provide Welsh Government with at least equivalent funding to replace what is currently being received through the CAP. Both I and the First Minister have made it very clear we will hold them to this. However, the lack of such a commitment to date—and Simon Thomas mentioned in his opening remarks that just yesterday the Prime Minister, on a visit to north Wales, didn’t provide that commitment when she was sitting at a farmer’s table, having a cup of tea, I noticed. It’s a real worry about the long-term investment that we know is needed to secure the future of our farming industry so that our farmers, our land managers, our rural businesses and our rural communities have the certainty that they need to plan for the future.

Alongside the funding, it’s critical we in this Assembly continue to lead the work in shaping a future agricultural policy that is tailored to the distinct needs of the industry in Wales. A majority in Wales did vote to leave the EU, and we have made clear this democratic decision must be respected. However, we do not believe anyone in Wales voted to be worse off, to see harm done to our economy or our public health services, and we are determined to secure a positive future for Wales in a post-Brexit world.

How food imports are affected by Brexit is not clear at present and won’t be until the UK has progressed trade talks with the EU and other countries. I’ve heard the Prime Minister say no deal would be better than a bad deal, but, quite frankly, that’s a ridiculous statement, because there has to be a deal. The Tories seem to be prioritising deals with other countries over maintaining our access to the single market and appear willing to sacrifice agriculture in the interests of quick wins with countries like the USA and New Zealand, which are very keen to access our markets.

For us in the Welsh Government, by contrast, a key consideration is that UK producers are not undercut by imports where production standards are poor and that consumers are not put at risk. Imports would have to meet specified standards and would be subject to checks. What these will be, of course, depends on the detail of those trade agreements and custom arrangements, and that is why it is essential the devolved institutions have real insight into and influence on trade negotiations. Given the implications for Welsh farmers and rural communities, it’s essential that devolved administrations play a full part in discussions, not only to ensure the UK negotiating position fully reflects the UK context, but also to agree collectively the arrangements that will be in place on a UK basis following the departure from the EU, which includes trade deals.

We accept there should be common UK frameworks in a number of areas to allow effective functioning of the UK internal market post Brexit and to facilitate international trade, but, again, these will need to be collectively agreed across the four countries, and I will certainly not tolerate any imposition of such frameworks by Westminster and Whitehall. Diolch.

I call on Simon Thomas to reply to the debate.

Thank you, Presiding Officer. Well, for an election that was called to decide Brexit, we’ve had no illumination at all about what sort of trade deal farmers in Wales will get out of this. I can’t accept that Theresa May has said anything relevant about Welsh farming. The most memorable thing she’s said about farming is that she used to trample down the wheat, like some sort of Thatcher in the rye, and we’re left with this—. A dreadful, dreadful, dreadful pun, I know. We’re left with the actual thing that she said when she came to Wales. What did she actually say? She said that there’s no guarantee on support for farmers after 2020. That, directly, is a quote from her visit to Wales only yesterday. Tim Farron came to mid Wales, and what did he talk about? He talked about social care policy in England—nothing to Welsh farmers.

I’m grateful that the Cabinet Secretary has reiterated her Government’s own commitment to the White Paper between ourselves, Plaid Cymru, and, let’s remember, the Liberal Democrats as well, even though they claim that they’re not part of this. But it is the truth that the UK Labour Party has also said nothing about what sort of trade deal we will get. Keir Starmer, who is the more sensible one, has made no mention at all about what this should be. The fact is that, as Paul Davies did point out quite correctly, we are supported by EU funds at the moment. If that were to be Barnettised, we would significantly lose our support here in Wales. That just underlines how, I’m afraid, David Rowlands’s comments were borne out of ignorance and spoken with no illumination in the Chamber today—[Interruption.] Well, no; I haven’t got time. I’m already out of time, I’m sorry, but I thought you showed you understood nothing about agriculture at all.

Neil Hamilton—we have made the same speech too many times in the same place at the moment, but the one thing that Neil Hamilton did say in the hustings on Monday night in Llandeilo that I though was honest, but I don’t accept it, was that his position was that he would accept a cost for leaving the European Union. I’m not prepared to do that, and neither is Plaid Cymru. Tomorrow, we’ll decide what will happen in the UK as a whole. Whatever happens, we will have elected one of the weakest Prime Ministers we have seen since the second world war, whoever wins that election, and I think we’re in for a very, very bumpy negotiation with the EU.

The proposal is to agree the motion without amendment. Does any Member object? [Objection.] I will defer voting under this item until voting time.

Voting deferred until voting time.