Therefore, I call on the Cabinet Secretary for Energy, Planning and Rural Affairs to move the motions. Lesley Griffiths.

Motion NDM6888 Julie James

To propose that the National Assembly for Wales, in accordance with Standing Order 27.5:

1.  Approves that the draft Carbon Accounting (Wales) Regulations 2018 are made in accordance with the draft laid in the Table Office on 06 November 2018.

Motion NDM6885 Julie James

To propose that the National Assembly for Wales, in accordance with Standing Order 27.5:

1.  Approves that the draft Climate Change (Carbon Budgets) (Wales) Regulations 2018 are made in accordance with the draft laid in the Table Office on 6 November 2018.

Motion NDM6884 Julie James

To propose that the National Assembly for Wales, in accordance with Standing Order 27.5:

1.  Approves that the draft Climate Change (Interim Emissions Targets) (Wales) Regulations 2018 are made in accordance with the draft laid in the Table Office on 6 November 2018.

Motion NDM6886 Julie James

To propose that the National Assembly for Wales, in accordance with Standing Order 27.5:

1.  Approves that the draft Climate Change (International Aviation and International Shipping) (Wales) Regulations 2018 are made in accordance with the draft laid in the Table Office on 6 November 2018.

Motion NDM6887 Julie James

To propose that the National Assembly for Wales, in accordance with Standing Order 27.5:

1.  Approves that the draft Climate Change (Net Welsh Emissions Account Credit Limit) (Wales) Regulations 2018 are made in accordance with the draft laid in the Table Office on 06 November 2018.

Motions moved.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges we face. The regulations that have been laid before the Assembly for consideration today are the climate change Wales regulations 2018. They are a set of five regulations that establish an emissions reduction framework and trajectory towards the 2050 target contained in the Environment (Wales) Act 2016. These regulations are being introduced under powers contained in the Act and they show the world we are playing our part in this global challenge. 

The Act established the Committee on Climate Change as our independent advisory body, and, in developing these regulations, we've obtained and accepted advice from the committee. In preparing its advice, the committee ran two calls for evidence and we hosted joint events attended by stakeholders from many different sectors, including industry, business, the public sector, third sector, academia and civil society. I'm grateful to the committee and stakeholders for their contribution to these regulations.

The interim emissions targets regulations create targets for 2020 at 27 per cent, 2030 at 45 per cent, and 2040 at 67 per cent. The carbon budgets regulations set our first two carbon budgets for 2016 to 2020 at an average of 23 per cent reduction, and 2021 to 2025 at an average of 33 per cent reduction. Taken together, the targets and budgets map out our decarbonisation pathway towards 2050. Due to the make-up of our communities, our trajectory is different from others. The key is to ensure we transition to a low-carbon economy and society at the right scale and rate to ensure we can maximise the benefits to Wales.

In terms of our accounting framework, we've decided to take a different approach from the UK Government and we'll be accounting for all emissions in Wales with no complicated reporting process, as we believe it's the most transparent way. The international aviation and shipping regulations include the Welsh share of these emissions in the net Welsh emissions account. The carbon accounting regulations define what type of carbon unit or offset credit may be used in the net Welsh emissions account and how they will be administered. We've gone for those that are considered robust and recognised by international reporting guidelines.

Whilst our focus is on our domestic action, the credit limit regulations place a limit on how many carbon units or offset credits may be used to meet the first carbon budget. As recognised by the Committee on Climate Change, Wales's emissions are vulnerable to yearly changes due to the dominance of our industrial sector. The 10 per cent limit provides sufficient flexibility. Deputy Presiding Officer, I commend these regulations to the National Assembly. 

Thank you. Can I call the Chair of the Climate Change, Environment and Rural Affairs Committee, Mike Hedges?

Thank you, Deputy Lywydd. These are very significant regulations. They are the first regulations to arise from the Environment (Wales) Act, which the Assembly passed back in 2016. As such, the Climate Change, Environment and Rural Affairs Committee felt it was important that we should look at them in depth to ensure that the requirements and the spirit of the environment Act are being taken forward. The committee has published its report on the regulations, which has been laid and is accessible via today's Plenary agenda. Our report contains seven recommendations for the Welsh Government, and I look forward to receiving a response in due course.

The environment Act placed a requirement on the Welsh Ministers to deliver emissions reductions of at least 80 per cent by 2050. The regulations we are considering today are significant because they put in place the pathway to the 2050 emissions target. Within these regulations, there is a new framework for how we tackle emissions levels in Wales. They introduce a concept of five-year carbon budgets, which will, in turn, contribute to achieving 10-year interim targets. They will all be supported by delivery plans, which will set out in detail the actions the Welsh Government will take. All of this will, we hope, help the Welsh Government to reach the 2050 target.

In the time available, I will focus on three aspects of the committee's report: the 2050 target and whether it is challenging enough, the complexities around devolved and non-devolved emissions, and the Welsh Government's first delivery plan. 

The 2050 target: we need to look at the Paris agreement and the recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Its aim is to hold the increase in global temperature to well below 2 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees. The Welsh Government target of an 80 per cent reduction by 2050 will not be enough to meet the 2 degree aim. If we continue on this trajectory, Wales will not meet the aims of the Paris agreement. As a committee, we were very disappointed by this. However, we were pleased to hear from the Cabinet Secretary that she is prepared to rethink. We have an underlying concern in relation to the Welsh Government's approach to setting its 2050 target. Why has the Welsh Government set a target that won't be enough to meet the aims of the Paris agreement? We know that we need to act urgently, we know we need to demonstrate leadership, and we know that we need to be ambitious. Why set a target that does none of these things? In 2015, Welsh emissions had fallen by 19 per cent below 1990 levels; across the UK as a whole, they had fallen by 27 per cent. We have not made good enough progress on this agenda, but we must not lose ground from now on.

The second area I want to cover is the question of emissions in devolved and non-devolved areas. The Welsh Government decided to include all Welsh emissions in their targets. However, the risk of counting all emissions means that it'll be much less easy to identify the Welsh Government's progress in devolved areas. It could be that we're making progress because the Welsh Government has done a lot, and we were held back by the UK, or the other way round. So, I think it really is important that we do ensure that what the Welsh Government is achieving we can actually see, rather than an overall what is being achieved. To address this, we have recommended that Welsh Government should ask the UK Committee on Climate Change to include in its report on progress a breakdown of the emissions reductions according to those policies that are devolved and those that are not.

The third area I want to cover is the Welsh Government's first delivery plan. For each carbon budget, the Welsh Government publishes a delivery plan that explains how it'll meet the carbon budget. We have yet to see the first delivery plan, but we have been told by the Cabinet Secretary that it'll be published in March. The delivery plan will be informed by a recent Welsh Government consultation, 'Achieving our low-carbon pathway to 2030'. The committee has heard serious concerns from stakeholders about this consultation—that it was underdeveloped, there was a lack of detail, and there was an overall lack of ambition. The Welsh Government has told us that this was an early-stage consultation, but, given that the delivery plan will be published three months from now, we're concerned that there will not be sufficient time to turn the results of that consultation into an effective plan. We have recommended that the delivery plan should be accompanied by a comprehensive assessment of the cost and anticipated impact of each intervention. I am pleased to say that the Welsh Government has given a commitment that this will happen.

Conclusions—in conclusion, these regulations are a welcome step forward following the passage of the environment Act by the Assembly in 2016. The regulations will provide a pathway to meeting the Welsh Government's 2050 target, but that's all—it's a framework. We will still need effective and ambitious policies to reduce emissions and improve our public health. This is arguably the greatest challenge this and future Welsh Governments will face. They will need to rise to meet these challenges if we are going to fulfil obligations and duties to the rest of the world.

Obviously, the Welsh Conservatives will be supporting the regulations that are laid before the Assembly this afternoon. If you look at the comments of David Attenborough yesterday at the climate conference that is being held by the United Nations in Poland—. And it most probably is appropriate to focus maybe on the climate conferences that have periodically happened, because the First Minister next week will be standing down, and one of the first acts that he undertook when he took over as First Minister was to go to Copenhagen with the then environment Secretary, Jane Davidson. We've seen various degrees of failure and success at international conferences. I think Copenhagen was regarded as a failure; Paris was regarded as a success. And I think we all wait to see what the outcomes in Poland will be over the coming days to see whether we move any further forward to meeting what is a moral obligation on countries such as Wales, the United Kingdom, especially in the developed world, to actually put new technology to best use and reduce our carbon usage, especially when you look at the prophecies that, potentially, by the middle part of this century, could have dramatic implications for people in low-lying areas not just in Europe but across the globe, and the disappearance of countries. 

And this report that the climate change committee has put together I wholly endorse, in particular the way the Chairman of the committee brought forward its conclusions. It is worth noting that, obviously, the report does identify the Welsh Government potentially missing its 2020 target and, very often, it's easy maybe to set some of these targets that are very much in the future, thinking that there'll be someone else who'll have to deliver that. It is a fact that we all need to put our shoulder to the wheel from an opposition perspective, and put pressure on Government to be ambitious in the way it wants to meet these targets, but also to work with businesses and work with communities and individuals to make sure that we all play our part and people do not feel as we've seen in France now, where environmental action has provoked mass unrest because people have not been taken along with the proposals that the Government in France has delivered.

And so we will continue our position of monitoring this. We will continue our position of support where that support can help advance the cause of environmental improvement in Wales. But the round-table discussion, I think, last week that the committee held was a good sounding board for many of the organisations that came in, and if we can map out a route that shows that this is actually a profitable and beneficial way for business to engage in adopting new technology to reduce their carbon output, and, in particular, as individuals focus on what their output is as individuals, collectively we can make a big difference. But my word of caution is: when you look at what has gone on in France over the last couple of days, we need to take people with us when we're bringing forward these measures, rather than just some sort of academic exercise that plays out on paper but which in reality is very, very difficult to deliver. And I do look forward, as the Welsh Conservatives look forward, to looking at and scrutinising the delivery plan that, obviously, the Cabinet Secretary has committed to bringing forward in March of next year, because that would be a critical pathway to making sure that what is in the regulations that we are discussing today and the report that we have put forward as a committee can and will be delivered.  

I want to return to 2016, when the environment Act was passed, from where the need for these regulations emanated. Now, I have to say that the long-term target of cutting emissions by 80 per cent by 2050 was dated at that point when the environment Act was passed in 2016, because the basis was the UK Climate Change Act, which has just celebrated its tenth birthday, and there was no new research for this legislation in Wales in 2016. And that was acknowledged at the time, and I know because I proposed amendments as the Plaid Cymru spokesperson scrutinising this Bill in order to strengthen the targets and to change that date in order to reflect the urgency and the need for swifter action, as has now become even more apparent in the latest report by the IPCC. So, as a result, the carbon budgets and the pathway to 2050 and the targets for 2020, 2030 and 2040 are all on the wrong track. The fact that the target for 2020 has reduced from 40 per cent to 27 per cent demonstrates a lack of action and also demonstrates why we need to look at this anew.

Now, the Act says, of course, that there is a responsibility on Government to introduce regulations that have considered international agreements such as Paris, of course, and the latest scientific evidence as well as our duties to be a nation that is responsible on an international level, which comes under one of the goals of the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. Not one of these has been taken fully into account in the advice and recommendations of the UK Committee on Climate Change, but, again, the Welsh Government has accepted these inadequate recommendations in their entirety.

Now, the IPCC report in the autumn is a clear warning that we have just 12 years to avoid disastrous climate change, but the targets proposed here for Wales's contribution in 12 years, by 2030, is just a 45 per cent cut in emissions. The route towards decarbonisation should be on a different trajectory—there should be greater cuts happening sooner, not the gradual approach that the Government is taking. Yes, there is a cost to that, and I appreciate that and we need to be sensitive to that, but the cost of having to do more in future will be far higher.

Of course, the preparatory work for these regulations was done before the publication of the IPCC report, and in light of this we need a clear commitment from the Government that they will introduce updated regulations not only following the advice commissioned by the UK Committee on Climate Change but also following an assessment of what Wales's fair share is on a global level, bearing in mind our international responsibilities and our historic contribution to climate change as one of the first nations to industrialise. I'm therefore asking the Cabinet Secretary in this debate today to confirm that we will have a clear commitment that the Government will update these targets next year in light of the latest information available.

I also want to touch on the process. The process and the lack of opportunity that there has been for real scrutiny of these proposals is something that is unacceptable, in my view. There's been no consultation on these specific regulations and no opportunity for the climate change committee to be part of their development. We've had 20 days under Standing Orders to look at these—just 20 days to look at targets that will be in place for almost 40 years, or certainly 30 years. There should have been draft regulations laid so that we could have that meaningful debate. But what's happening, to all intents and purposes, is that the Government is forcing this Assembly to accept these regulations as they are because they do have to be passed, according to the legislation, before the end of the year, and to pass them before we have seen the decarbonisation delivery plan, which won't be available until March, as we've heard. But we're expected to decide that these targets are appropriate without having fully understood how the Government intends to deliver the targets and to achieve them. There's an irony that the Government is asking us to pass these regulations on the very day when hundreds of people were on the steps of the Senedd protesting against the environmental damage and the carbon emission impact that the new M4 will have in the Newport area.

To conclude, therefore, Plaid Cymru is willing under protest to vote in favour of these regulations in order to avoid a situation where the Government is in contravention of the environment Act, but only on the basis of a clear commitment by the Cabinet Secretary that there will be more ambitious targets adopted within 12 months.

I agree with a lot of what Llyr is saying, that we, to some extent, are being bounced into this, and I think, in the light of David Attenborough's powerful speech, as already mentioned by Andrew R.T. Davies, what he said in Katowice really does force all of us to look deep into what we ought to be doing and what we're not actually delivering on. Because we've just had a discussion about Brexit and the importance of that to future generations. That's as nothing compared with this debate. There simply will be no world for our children and grandchildren to inherit unless we change our ways. As Attenborough said in Katowice,

'the collapse of our civilisations if we don't take action, and the extinction of much of the natural world, is on the horizon.'

These are really strong words, and whilst I agree that we have to take people with us, it is not encouraging to see the populist position taken by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in failing year after year to raise the climate change levy on the fuel duty in order to reflect the amount of pollution that's involved in driving.

So, do these regulations deliver on the commitments we entered into in Paris in 2015? Probably not, but they're a step in the right direction. We're told by the experts that we're currently on target for a disastrous 3 per cent warming. Therefore it is beholden on the industrialised world, which has benefited from all this consumption of the world's resources, to do more than the less developed countries in the world.

I note that the UK Committee on Climate Change observed that progress remains a long way short of the Welsh Government's existing target to reduce emissions to a level of 40 per cent below the 1990 levels by 2020, in two years' time. I think we need to really seriously look at the status of Aberthaw, the coal-fired power station, because it presented 51 per cent of Welsh power emissions and 14 per cent of total Welsh emissions in 2015. So, therefore there has to be a win from that. That seems to me an easy win. Of course we have to ensure that we have alternative ways of generating electricity, but clearly coal is not it. It's no use to say, as they have done in Poland, 'Oh, that's what people's jobs rely on'. We have to change the jobs and use technology to get people doing different things. So, I would suggest to the Government that we need to close Aberthaw much sooner than 2025, and that would start to get us back on track, because we're clearly not where we need to be.

I want to see an immediate revision of Part L of the building regulations. Relating back to what Andrew R.T. Davies said on taking people with us, we're never going to take the mass house builders with us. They're always going to want to go on producing the same old, same old not-energy-efficient housing until we instruct them not to, and that is the role of government—to ensure that people are delivering using the world's resources in the most effective way. We know that there is already the technology available to ensure that we have zero-carbon housing, and that is what people want and need, because, at the moment, they're spending far too much of their hard-earned money on trying to heat their homes in constructions that are inadequate.

Although agriculture emissions have fallen by 15 per cent since 1990, they have risen slightly since 2009 and we need to do something about that, too. It isn't just the size of the land-use sink having decreased because more land is being built on, but it's also a reduction in tree planting. Also, we need to start looking at what food we're eating and how we're producing it. If we have intensive factory farming, it produces far more carbon emissions than if we have less intensive farming. All these things need to be looked at.

I congratulate the Cabinet Secretary on being honest in admitting that, when a climate change analyst challenged the Government, the look on every Cabinet Secretary and Minister’s face was one of absolute terror. It's not just the Government's job; it's the job of all of us to change our ways, but the Government must lead the way, and I suggest that we need to work towards 100 per cent by 2050 and, hopefully, we'll come back with some more challenging targets, because I don't think these are challenging enough.

While setting tough emissions targets sounds very laudable, the unfortunate reality is that UK carbon emissions are dwarfed by those emanating from countries like Germany, France, Australia, the United States and, of course, China. Action to reduce global emissions can only effectively be taken at a global level and must involve binding legislation severely restricting the polluting impact of these large-scale polluter nations.

Reference has been made earlier to the 2008 UK climate change Act. The total cost of this legislation across the UK as a whole is estimated to be an eye-watering £720 billion over the next 40 years. UKIP would scrap these climate change laws, because every British household is effectively paying over £300 a year to cut carbon emissions, which is unrealistic as an objective in any event. They're also—

Llyr Gruffydd rose—

No, I've nearly come to the end, but thank you.

They're also effectively a regressive tax, which will hit the poor hardest, so we won't be supporting the Government's motions today.

Thank you, Can I now call the Cabinet Secretary for Energy, Planning and Rural Affairs to reply to the debate?

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. I'd like to thank Members for their contributions to this debate. The intergovernmenal panel on climate change recently reported that current rates of warming could see the global average temperature rise hit 1.5 degrees centigrade as soon as 2030. Following that report, I did write to Members to highlight our joint request for advice from the committee on climate change regarding how the Paris agreement and the evidence in the IPCC report may affect our long-term emissions reduction targets. However, I think what really came out very clearly from the report was the need for urgent action now. The regulations set the framework for action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and we've already achieved reduction in emissions from waste, from buildings and from industry, but, of course, I absolutely accept that more needs to be done.

In March, we will publish our plan for the first carbon budget to get us to the 2020 target. We'll set out the action that we'll take, but also, importantly, what we expect others such as the UK Government to take, especially given that nearly 60 per cent of our emissions are outside our control. We know that our emissions profile is significantly different from the UK as a whole because of our past and this makes our emissions more volatile. The decarbonisation pathway established by these regulations is the best balance between ambition and achievability.

If I could just turn to particular points raised by Members today, the people of Wales need access to good-quality jobs that are resilient for a changing economy. The people of Wales also deserve to live in a clean and healthy environment, and it's about getting the balance right. I think Andrew R.T. Davies made a very important point about taking people with us and also about us all playing our part. Jenny Rathbone said, when I chaired the first ministerial group on decarbonisation—I'm not sure the word 'terror' was used, but absolutely, everybody realised, right across Government, that we all have to play our part.

Mike Hedges, as Chair of the committee, raised some very important points. I know, Mike, you think that the targets may not be ambitious enough. I have to say that an 80 per cent target by 2050 isn't within the scope of these regulations today, but the framework we have doesn't stop us going even further. The CCC did suggest an 80 per cent reduction for the UK implies a 76 per cent reduction in Wales. So, by adopting the 2050 target of at least 80 per cent, I think we're arguably making a proportionally greater contribution to the Paris agreement than the UK as a whole. But of course, we need to keep those under review. 

Llyr mentioned that it's hard to agree targets and budgets before seeing the plan. Right across the UK, that is the usual process. You do set the target or the carbon budget first, and then publish a plan to meet the budget. You raised the point about revisiting the targets. I can't revisit the target for the 2020 budget because that would be going against due process of the Act because it wouldn't give us sufficient time to have the robust analysis that we would need to underpin our decision, but I absolutely commit to revisiting the target for the second budget and certainly when we're setting our third carbon budget, which will be at the end of the first carbon budget in 2020. I think we'll then be able to get some really appropriate, detailed analysis, and that again would link with wider UK pathways. 

Mike Hedges also raised the question about not sharing the low-carbon delivery plan, but I did agree to share it with the committee a few days before we publish it next March. We're working to very challenging timescales in terms of finalising both the statutory framework and the first low-carbon delivery plan. 

Andrew R.T. Davies raised the issue of—obviously, the Conference of the Parties is happening at the moment. I chose to go to the San Francisco global climate action summit in September, but officials are there representing Wales. I've certainly visited COP and I know other Ministers and predecessors before me have visited and it's certainly very good to share best practice, and I think, as a region, we really do punch above our weight and people are very interested to hear what we're doing to reduce our emissions. 

Presiding Officer, the regulations demonstrate to people and businesses in Wales that the National Assembly and the Welsh Government accept climate change is a serious, dangerous problem and one that we simply cannot ignore. The regulations provide certainty and clarity and show international markets Wales is open to low-carbon business. They demonstrate to people and to governments around the world we are determined to play our part in tackling this global crisis, and I think they show the people of Wales we are committed to improving their social, environmental, economic and cultural well-being. But, ultimately, they demonstrate to young people and our future generations we value their lives and livelihoods as much as our own. Diolch.

Thank you. The proposal is to agree the motion under item 5, does any Member object? [Objection.] Okay, we defer voting on this item until voting time. 

Voting deferred until voting time.

The proposal is to agree the motion under item 6, does any Member object? [Objection.] I defer voting under this item until voting time. 

Voting deferred until voting time.

The proposal is to agree the motion under item 7, does any Member object? [Objection.] I defer voting under this item until voting time. 

Voting deferred until voting time.

The proposal is to agree the motion under item 8, does any Member object? [Objection.] Therefore, I defer voting under this item until voting time. 

Voting deferred until voting time.

The proposal is to agree the motion under item 9, does any Member object? [Objection.] I defer voting under this item until voting time. 

Voting deferred until voting time.