Questions now from party spokespeople. The Plaid Cymru spokesperson, Bethan Sayed.

Diolch yn fawr iawn. Given that Wales is currently facing potentially turbulent economic times, as we discussed only yesterday, with the potential closure of Ford, we believe here that we should do as much as possible to diversify the Welsh economy—for example, developing infrastructure so that, as a country, we can offer our businesses the ability to take advantage of emerging global markets. Can the Minister outline what the Welsh Government is doing to diversify the Welsh economy under his leadership?

Yes, of course. This is an incredibly important matter to consider as we approach EU exit date. It's absolutely essential that we look at whether we need to turn the dial on the actions contained within the Welsh Government's economic action plan, specifically with regard to decarbonisation and futureproofing businesses. In many respects, Wales has a diverse economy compared to the UK, where manufacturing is at a very, very low level indeed and where there is a very heavy reliance on the service sector, particularly in certain geographical parts of the UK. It's my belief that, given the investment we've made over many years since devolution, the economy is in a strong position. 

We will go on ensuring that we grow small and micro-sized firms so that we encourage the growth of medium-sized firms, and that, wherever possible, we encourage businesses to embrace modern technology and modern ways of working. But our actions in the economic action plan were specifically designed to deal with the challenges of the automation industry 4.0 and Brexit. They are there; we are dealing with them. We are delivering on those actions and, as a consequence, we do now have an unemployment rate that is at, or around, record low levels.

Thank you very much for that answer, and I recognise the work on decarbonisation, but I wanted to focus on digital, and I think that Wales is unprepared for, potentially, the next industrial revolution. We led the last one, but we are still lagging behind in this regard. Just to give you an example, there are large sections of society that even struggle to get 3G coverage as opposed to coverage in any other shape or form. And, of course, these are many rural areas, but agri-tech is stopped in its tracks by virtue of the fact that they don't even have that basic coverage.

So, we already have a lot of this infrastructure in Wales. The investment packages exist through the city deals, and the UK Government's £200 million rural fibre fund. So, we think that Transport for Wales, believe it or not, can act as an enabler for the creation of interconnected, international 5G fibre and space technologies infrastructure for Wales, and the cost of a national digital infrastructure could be in the region of £110 million, with the potential for half of this being covered by the UK Government's rural fibre fund.

So, this isn't just about the digital infrastructure in and of itself; it's about positioning Wales at the forefront of new industries. So, what steps are you taking in relation to digital infrastructure to facilitate the development of new industries, which, at the moment, are lagging purely because that isn't in existence?

When we were developing the economic action plan, we looked at how best we could drive innovation across Wales in order to drive up productivity rates. And we found that, in similar-sized countries with an economy similar to Wales, it's the diffusion of innovation rather than the development of new innovation that will enable an economy to advance. Therefore, we designed specifically the calls to action around the need for businesses to embrace digitisation. And it's through the prism of the calls to action that businesses now draw down funding. In addition to this, there is, of course, a digital exploitation endeavour that is being led by my deputy, Lee Waters, and I think the Member makes a really valuable point about the potential role of Transport for Wales as well. We've already tasked Transport for Wales to look at how it can encourage the market, the private sector, to deploy electric charging points across Wales, utilising the public asset of railway stations. And I think, moving forward, as we transfer more functions to Transport for Wales, we'll be able to look at them working in even more innovative spaces.

I think I should point out as well, though, that in terms of digital infrastructure and the exploitation of it, the north Wales growth deal—I know the Member mentioned growth deals and city deals as a vehicle for this purpose—has as its priority intervention a major digital programme, and I think that should be welcomed. 

Yes, thank you, and we are welcoming of that. I think the next steps are going to be vital, and there's no doubt about that. For us, I think, in Wales, and its partners, we will be able to deliver sectoral opportunities in health, autonomous vehicles, as you've mentioned, with electric vehicles, but not only that but hydrogen, as was mentioned yesterday, big data, artificial intelligence, manufacturing and aerospace. I think they're all part of the reason why the digital landscape needs to be enhanced upon.

According to the UK Government's research, the impact of 5G is estimated at £198 billion per annum by 2030, with a 10-year gross domestic product impact of £173 billion between 2020 and 2030. So, we must have an ambition to take a portion of that, and it's been suggested that Wales aims for a 10 per cent share of this, which would mean an uplift in GDP of £17.3 billion from 2020 to 2030. Will the Minister commit to working on a cross-party basis to pool together resources so that we can come up with new ideas in all of the areas that I mentioned earlier in my question, so that we can achieve these aims for Wales together? Because I think what's important is that we jump upon the opportunity to enhance upon the wealth of our nation with the skills that they have, but putting the infrastructure in place to allow them to do that.  

I'd like to welcome Bethan Jenkins's offer and say, yes, that is something that I'd like to proceed with. We certainly have no monopoly on good ideas, and I think it's important that we do recognise that Members across this Chamber have innovative ideas, energy and determination to influence Government policy for the better. So, I would like to take forward that offer. And I'd also say, as the Member has highlighted, that digital transcends all of those traditional sectors; it's part and parcel of all of the traditional sectors that we were prioritising until we developed the digital action plan, and we took digital and we made that a key enabler that crosses over all of the work that we do in terms of supporting business growth.   

Conservatives spokesperson, Russell George. 

Diolch, Presiding Officer. Minister, can I ask how confident you are that this new commission that you have established to look at the M4 relief road will come to a conclusion in the space of just six months, after, of course, spending £140 million on the project over the last six years? Given that the public inquiry has already looked at 28 different alternatives, what is there new to consider and how confident are you that this new commission's recommendations won't simply be put in the bin by the First Minister if it doesn't conform with his view? 

Can I thank Russell George for his questions? I have every confidence in the commission looking at this important subject matter, and developing not just the proposals that are put forward potentially into a combination, a package, of interventions, but also in looking at potential new innovations and interventions that were not considered back in 2010 to 2014, when the black route emerged as the favoured option. There were, of course, more than 20 alternatives recommended to the planning inspector, but, in addition to that, the Welsh Government had considered 200 or so solutions back in 2010 to 2014. We're in the process of providing technical briefings to the chair of the commission. We're also in the process of identifying and appointing additional commission members. They'll have support from Welsh Government in scrutinising all of the traffic modelling, all of the data that exists, and I do have confidence in them reporting back in six months with strong recommendations that this Government will be able to take forward.

I recognise that the figure attached to the development cost of the proposed black route is significant, but it does represent something in the order of just 6 per cent of the overall project cost that was estimated, and that, as I've said in this Chamber, compares very favourably to other projects. You only need to look at development costs of projects such as HS2 to appreciate that you cannot deliver a major infrastructure project in the western world without incurring significant development costs.

Thank you for your answer, Minister. In many ways, it demonstrates how much time and resource the Government has spent on looking at alternative routes already, which is the basis, really, of my question.

Turning to the public inquiry itself, obviously, Members and I have had time to digest the public inquiry report. In his statement, the First Minister said that he would not have gone ahead with the Government's own proposals, even if he felt they were affordable, on the grounds of impact on the environment. So, if I can just explore that for a moment: the Welsh Government's own evidence, provided by Natural Resources Wales and advocated by your own Welsh Government barristers said that the scheme would be carbon neutral over time and compatible with the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. The inspector agreed with your, the Welsh Government's, own opinion and said it was sound and also agreed that the proposed extensive mitigation for the impact on the Gwent levels, developed alongside NRW, could certainly be considered as taking reasonable steps to comply with the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981. Now, the point I would make here, Minister, is that if you now disagree with your own Welsh Government proposals, do you believe that the legislation contained within the Environment (Wales) Act 2016 and the well-being of future generations Act is sufficient? And how does this decision throw into doubt other transport schemes in Wales, such as the Deeside corridor scheme and, of course, other areas where there needs to be much improvement, along the A40, the A55 and the A470? Does this decision by the First Minister represent a fundamental change to Welsh Government transport policy on environmental grounds?

No. The First Minister was very clear in stressing that this project is absolutely unique in terms of the scale and in terms of the impact on the site of special scientific interest and that, therefore, it had to be considered in its own right. The First Minister was also very clear when he said that he disagreed with the inspector in terms of where the bar should be laid on environmental consequences of infrastructure, and it's his belief in terms of mitigation that you cannot mitigate the loss of, for example, an SSSI and attempt to then develop a similar environment elsewhere, and that there is a big difference between mitigation and compensation. Since we presented I think a very compelling case, of course, there's been a declaration of climate emergency, a greater understanding and appreciation that we need to act now, that we need to be more responsive and responsible and, therefore, the bar has been raised. Whilst I don't think that the legislation that the Member has pointed to requires amending, I do think it necessitates a very careful consideration within Government of how we take forward, not just transport infrastructure but all infrastructure—social infrastructure, for example, hospitals, schools—to guarantee that the development of buildings, roads and rail systems do not have an adverse impact on the environment, if it's at all possible to avoid it.

The Member, I think, rightly identifies a number of schemes that many might fear will be lost as a consequence of this being seen as having set a precedent. That is not the case. All of those programmes will go ahead. Indeed, we are proceeding with consultations on improvements to the A483 this month, work on the Flintshire corridor, the A494/A55, will be proceeding this summer with further modelling and Welsh transport appraisal guidance work and further consultations and meetings with local stakeholders. Other road projects across the length and breadth of Wales are still in the pipeline to be delivered. This does not shift our position on those.

Well, you mentioned that the bar has been raised and you mentioned the climate emergency that the Welsh Government has declared in the meantime. That does, of course, bring me back to my question again about the need for changes in legislation. I appreciate the answer that you have given, but it's difficult to understand how a change in those circumstances cannot affect future schemes, and I appreciate the answers you've given.

Now, section 6 of the report of the public inquiry notes that the M4 is the most strategically important road in Wales and is the primary route in and out of the country for the movement of goods, and that capacity constraints are currently imposing costs on economic activity. Now, the inspector also agreed with the Welsh Government's own economic appraisal of the scheme, showing that it would provide good value for money, which shows a cost benefit ratio of 2:1. Now, the economic impact of not proceeding has also been estimated as being £134 million a year to Cardiff and £44 million a year to Newport. Incidentally, the same cost as the public inquiry. Now, given, of course, the uncertainty by recent announcements at Tata Steel and Ford, amongst others, do you not agree with the inspector that the economic impact of further delays for a relief road will strangle the Welsh economy? And, finally, if the First Minister was the decision maker, as he says he was, not you, nor this Assembly, what input did you have into that final decision?

The decision was just for the First Minister, and as the promoter of the scheme I could take no part in that. As the First Minister has said, the issue of affordability of major infrastructure projects was discussed at Cabinet, and that helped to inform the First Minister's decision, but insofar as that decision actually being taken, that was something specifically and solely for the First Minister.

I think Russell George makes a very valuable point that doing nothing would have a major impact—a pretty devastating impact on the south Wales economy, and that's why we have to ensure that the recommendations that the commission comes forward with are implemented at speed with sufficient resource, and, in turn, that's why we said that we will utilise part of the money that would have been attributed to the M4 relief road, that original envelope, for, first and foremost, interventions in and around Newport, in order to reduce congestion to an acceptable level.

Brexit Party spokesperson, David Rowlands. 

Diolch, Llywydd. Can I return to the theme of rail transport, Minister? Since the announcement of the new rail franchise, there has been a great deal of discussion about the announcements to the schedules and stock of the core Valleys lines, and, indeed, you've just given us some very welcome news about the proposed announcements to the Ebbw Vale line. But could the Minister give us some indication of any such announcements to the rail services serving Pontypool and Cwmbran?

I think it might be beneficial if I was to update all Members on all services across Wales and the acquisition of additional rolling stock in the delivery of new rolling stock, rather than specifying certain services and certain lines, but I'd very gladly do that.

I thank you, Minister, for that, but, obviously, it is of concern to us in south-east Wales. This is a prime railway line that leads into Cardiff, as you know, and into Newport. So, can you give us some idea about the proposed announcements to the rolling stock on that line? After all, the metro gives South Wales East very little in the way of structural commitment. So, let's lump that into the structural commitment with regard to South Wales East. Could you give us some—?

Well, I can assure the Member that all trains on the network, including those in the metro area, will be replaced, and that there are new trains, many of which will be built in Wales, that will be up to today's modern standards in terms of disabled access. We're also determined, where possible, to increase capacity on railway lines right now, and that's why we've been able to introduce additional rolling stock onto the core Valleys lines in recent months. We're also looking at how we can improve capacity elsewhere across Wales. So, I can assure the Member that we are doing everything we can to identify where rolling stock can be introduced, albeit on a temporary basis, to alleviate congestion whilst those brand-new trains are being constructed.