Item 5 on the agenda is a statement by the Counsel General and Brexit Minister on Brexit preparedness—preparedness, preparedness—'preparedness' I think it is, isn't it? Yes. Sorry, I was having a minute there. So, can I call on the Counsel General and Brexit Minister, Jeremy Miles?  

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. By next week, the Conservative Party leadership election will be over, and we will know the identity of the new Prime Minister. We have all watched a leadership campaign characterised by a race to see who can talk the toughest about a 'no deal', and a competition for the top job that focuses on the needs of the Conservative Party and not the needs of the country. It’s a debate that seems to forget that how the UK leaves the EU has a real world impact on people’s lives and livelihoods.

The expectation seems to be that, whoever the new Prime Minister is, he will be able to go to Brussels and renegotiate a deal in a matter of weeks. However, both Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson are ignoring the fact that the European Union has repeatedly said that they will not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, and there is no magic technical solution available to ensure goods can move without friction on the island of Ireland.

They are also ignoring the fact that, for the EU, Brexit is a significant challenge but not an existential one. The EU-27 are preoccupied with the need to install a new European Commission and other top jobs and the development of a new five-year policy programme and seven-year budget.

Yet again, Dirprwy Lywydd, we are back to chasing unicorns. We have a situation where appeasing grass-roots Tory supporters is taking precedence over the reality of the negotiations with the European Union. Gaining support of the hardline Brexiteers has been made the top priority, and not the national interest.

The dire consequence of all these factors is that crashing out of the EU without a deal becomes a very real possibility. By design or default, I fear that the next Conservative Prime Minister will take the UK towards a 'no deal' exit, and we have always said that this would be catastrophic for the UK as a whole, but particularly for Wales. And we are not alone in saying this. The list of businesses expressing grave concerns about leaving without a deal ought to be sobering. And more and more experts are highlighting the additional complexity that an October exit date creates. Let me pick out just a few examples for you. The chief executive of Tesco has said that leaving the European Union without a deal on 31 October could lead to problems with stocking shops, with less storage space for stockpiling, given the run-up to Christmas, than there was in March. As a result, he said it will be harder for retailers and manufacturers to build up stocks of goods, making the likelihood of empty shelves so much the greater.

The chief executive of Sainsbury's has warned that a 'no deal' Brexit on 31 October could significantly disrupt the supply of food, toys and electrical goods into the UK ahead of the festive period, saying that 'any hold-up at Britain's ports could be very disruptive to our business’. The National Farmers Union have said, frankly, it's worrying that 'no deal' is being put forward as a plausible scenario by policymakers and our leaders, and has warned that the mass slaughter of sheep may be the consequence. I wholeheartedly agree that 'no deal' should not be seen as a plausible scenario. The normalisation of 'no deal', the idea that it is a reasonable choice, in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, is extraordinary.

Make UK, which represents manufacturing and engineering firms, say that there is a direct link between politicians talking up the prospect of 'no deal', and British firms losing customers overseas and British people losing jobs in British firms.

In Wales, we have already seen the impact of this loss of confidence in the UK. Just within the automotive sector, we've seen the devastating job losses and closures announced of Schaeffer, Calsonic and Ford, while more than 2,000 Welsh supply chain jobs are at risk as a result of Honda’s decision to close its plant at Swindon. Continued Brexit uncertainty is damaging the economy right now.

The Welsh Government and this National Assembly reject a 'no deal' exit. Any rational look at the hard facts of the implications of a 'no deal' exit shows that this will be catastrophic. During the referendum debate three years ago, 'no deal' was not put forward as a viable option. Access to the single market and seamless trade with the EU is what was promised by those backing 'leave'. There is simply no mandate for a 'no deal' exit. And canvassing the views of 160,000 members of the Conservative party is not a national mandate for leaving the European Union in a way that will trash the economy. We will not stand by and watch this happen.

The people now need to decide the way ahead. As agreed in this Chamber, we are calling for a second referendum to set a new mandate. All the evidence we have seen only reinforces our view that the UK remaining in the EU is in the best interests for the future prospects of everyone in the United Kingdom. As we did in 2016, we will campaign to remain in the European Union and we'll support all efforts to work on a cross-party basis to achieve that aim. Moreover, I want to be very clear that, should the incoming Prime Minister call a snap general election in a desperate effort to avoid Parliament preventing a 'no deal' Brexit and to seek a public mandate for such a disastrous course of action, we will do all that we can to persuade the UK Labour Party to adopt a manifesto commitment that an incoming Labour-led Government would cancel Brexit entirely.

Llywydd, faced as we are with the rising risk of a 'no deal' exit, we continue to work with partners to do all we can to prepare for the widespread and serious impact that a 'no deal' exit would cause. Since the extension was agreed in April, we have been taking the opportunity to review the 'no deal' preparations that we have made and to consider how best to build on all the valuable work done across the public sector and beyond to ensure our preparations are as robust as possible. In particular, this includes taking into account the additional complexities of an autumn 'no deal' exit that I have already mentioned. Further discussions—including next week at the Royal Welsh Show, for example—with relevant sectors will allow additional focus to be given to issues related to warehousing space, freight movement, and the haulage sector. It also means considering both the short-term and long-term impacts of a 'no deal' exit.

There remains great uncertainty over the likely impacts in the short term. Here, I fear that the hardline narrative, characterised by claims that the UK will renege on financial commitments, will only harden any response from the EU27. Many of the short-term consequences of a 'no deal' exit will be out of our direct control, and that is why our 'no deal' preparations need to be thorough and flexible to respond to the changing business climate. Drawing on our experience from March and April, we've been considering in particular how to support businesses and people to take further steps, where possible, to prepare for the potential implications of no deal. One of our key reflections from the spring preparations is that, where new operational systems would be put into place—for example, in relation to aspects related to the import and export of goods—businesses need to be aware of, and ready to use, those new arrangements. There is more that the UK Government, which has the primary responsibility for many of these systems at a UK level—there's more that they need to do in this regard, but equally we are determined to do what we can to support business in Wales.

My colleague the Minister for Economy and Transport has identified measures to support business through this difficult time. These include five simple, low-cost actions to help Welsh businesses prepare for a 'no deal' Brexit, and they are outlined on our website Paratoi Cymru. They cover the importance of importers and exporters obtaining an economic operator registration and identification number; those transferring personal data into the UK making sure that they continue to comply with GDPR regulations; those employing EU citizens encouraging staff to apply for them to remain in Wales through the EU settled status scheme; manufacturers checking regulatory requirements for UK and EU markets for labelling, approvals and testing; and all businesses visiting the Business Wales Brexit portal to assess how prepared they are and to get detailed expert advice. We are also focusing on maximising the capacity of the Development Bank of Wales to advise and support a much larger volume of businesses, with our actions being informed by as much intelligence as we can gather on potential sectoral and geographic vulnerabilities.

Alongside support for business, we're also focusing on support for people and communities, and on this theme we've recently announced a package of support to help EU citizens prepare for Brexit and continue to live and work in Wales. This will include support with applications and advice on social welfare issues and workplace rights through the network of Citizens Advice throughout Wales; an immigration advice service offering specialist support for complex cases, delivered by immigration legal specialists; increased provision of digital support centres in Wales to help those without the digital means to apply for settled status; and work with a range of charities and partners across Wales to raise awareness of the need to apply for settled status in hard-to-reach and vulnerable communities.

In addition, we've identified, alongside the UK Government, further legislative steps, by way of statutory instruments, that will be either necessary or desirable as a consequence of the extension to the article 50 timetable. I will be ensuring that Welsh Government preparations continue at pace over the summer so that we're in as strong a position as possible in October. This will include further announcements in due course on additional measures of support for people, communities and businesses through projects funded through our EU transition fund. But we will also continue to argue with all our might that a 'no deal' outcome and the damage it would cause to people’s lives and livelihoods would represent an unconscionable failure by the UK Government and must be avoided.

Llywydd, the new Prime Minister will face the same parliamentary arithmetic as Theresa May. There will continue to be deadlock in the Commons, and we're now almost certainly facing a straight choice between a 'no deal' or remaining in the European Union. The time has come to put the decision back to the people and the Welsh Government will campaign to remain in the European Union. It would be outrageous for any Government to take the UK out of the EU without a deal—as a deliberate act or as a result of inaction—without seeking a specific mandate to do so.

Thank you, Minister, for your statement. I have to say that I thought it was all going to be on Brexit preparedness, but a good proportion of it, though, seemed to be more about the leadership contest in the Conservative Party. I also think it's a great shame that the Labour Party here in Wales have abandoned its previous position of respecting democracy. Prior to the vote in June 2016, your party made it absolutely clear that you would respect the outcome of that vote. Immediately after the vote, you said that you would respect the outcome of that vote. Your MPs—every single Labour MP in the House of Commons today—was elected on a manifesto that said that it would respect that result of the referendum. And yet, in the recent past, particularly the past few months, we've seen your party shapeshifting in an extraordinary way, not only calling for a second referendum, but going further than just calling for a second referendum, also then saying that you want to campaign to remain if a second referendum is held. And today, you've gone even further, because what you've said is that if there's going to be a snap general election, you simply want a manifesto commitment to cancel Brexit altogether. Well, how is that respecting democracy? You say there's no mandate to deliver Brexit, and yet we've had a referendum and we've had commitments in party manifestos from both of the main political parties that have said that they would deliver it. There's a mandate to deliver Brexit. There's certainly no mandate to cancel it, which is what you and your party want to do. I think it's ironic, frankly, that we're in that position.

You quoted a list of companies and organisations that are saying that they're concerned about a 'no deal' Brexit. Those same organisations told you and your party to back the Prime Minister's withdrawal deal. You didn't want to listen to them then, did you? That's the deal that's been negotiated with the EU. That's the deal that you say yourself has no prospect of being changed. So, therefore, the choice is between the withdrawal deal at the moment or no deal at all. And yet you still fail to back that particular deal. So, you can't have it all. You can't say that we are pushing, as a Conservative Party, the country into a 'no deal' Brexit position. Your party is what's pushed us closer to a 'no deal' Brexit position. That's the truth of the matter. Whether it's the NFU, whether it's Sainsbury's, Tesco, the society of motor manufacturers or Make UK, every single one of them supported the Prime Minister's withdrawal deal. You ignored them at that time and now you quote them selectively at the current time.

If I can ask a few questions on your statement. You made reference to the support that you're making available for businesses. Now, much of that support is only available, of course, via websites. You may not know this, of course, because not many of you have been in business, but businesspeople are extremely busy people. They have their businesses to run on a day-to-day basis. You cannot simply expect every small business person in the country to be seeking out information on Google in order to find your website somewhere on page 27 of the search results in order to get the advice that they might need. So, can I ask: what further steps are you taking to make sure that you are communicating with those small business people across Wales to make sure that they have the advice at their fingertips so that they know exactly what to do to prepare for 'no deal' Brexit, should that actually happen?

We know that one of the things that you've also put in place is the Brexit resilience fund, something that we welcome. Although it's a pretty meagre amount—less than £3 million, I think, altogether—in terms of the Brexit resilience fund, the slice that you've carved off for match funding for businesses to prepare for Brexit. Now, we know from answers in this Chamber on 10 July that that fund is oversubscribed. We know that there are more applications coming in than the Government is able to support. So, can you tell us exactly how many applications have come in, how many have been declined, and what you are doing in order to increase the capacity of that fund to support businesses to transition for all eventualities, including a 'no deal' Brexit?

Can you also tell us—? You've made mention of the fact that we need to be acting swiftly in order to prepare people for a Halloween Brexit, and yet the reality is that you're still sat on funds that you could be spending in order to help people prepare. You've said that you're going to make some more announcements over the summer. Well, whoopee-do, we'll be even closer to 31 October then, won't we? And people will not have the opportunity to be able to spend it properly in order that they can prepare. You need to be getting this cash out to people and getting this cash out to the public sector as well to prepare now, not waiting another few weeks so that you can catch some limelight over the summer recess period.

You made reference to legislative steps that might be necessary and you say that you've had some discussions with the UK Government about that, but you've not shed any light on what those legislative steps are or the timetable. I can see nothing at the moment on the future work timetable of this National Assembly to take forward any additional legislative steps, so perhaps you can tell us precisely what those legislative steps actually are, because I think it would be of interest to people who are watching this particular statement.

Can you also tell us, in terms of the EU transition fund, whether you're proposing to increase that? So, if we do end up in a situation where a 'no deal' Brexit is likely—and let me be clear, my party would rather have a deal that is good for the UK, good for Wales, and good for the EU—but if we're not going to be in that position because of the intransigence of the EU, then I would like to know what you're going to do in terms of that fund to increase its impact and to make sure that Wales is as best prepared as it possibly can be in all sectors—third sector, the public sector, and the private sector—so that we can make a success of whatever lies ahead.

I thank the Member for that series of questions. It's his constant refrain that we need to respect the result of the 2016 referendum. He knows very well, of course, that on these benches we sought to find a version of Brexit that fulfilled the instruction in 2016 whilst minimising the damage to the Welsh economy. It was a version of Brexit that he and his party were not interested in in their headlong rush towards their ideologically driven version of Brexit. They showed no interest for the welfare of Welsh businesses, organisations and individuals that he claims to profess so much care for here today. Let me tell you what does not respect the result of the 2016 referendum is a 'no deal' Brexit, which no-one advocated for and people on those benches and others made a particular point of explaining to people how straightforward a deal would be. There is no mandate in the 2016 result for the course of action that he is perfectly prepared to tolerate in this Chamber today.

He asks what we are doing to support businesses. I take the point. I spent, I think, 20 years before being elected working in the private sector, so I absolutely understand, at least as much as anybody on those benches, what it's like to work for a business. And let me tell you, I absolutely understand, especially for small businesses, that there is not the capacity to spend time thinking and planning for all ranges of eventualities. That is a significant concern for us, and we are doing all we can through the Federation of Small Businesses and the through the chambers of commerce to try and communicate the resources that we are making available.

I will say to him that the Brexit resilience fund stands at considerably more than he gave in the figures there; we're looking at figures of approximately £9 million, and actually there is a lot of demand for that fund, absolutely, as we would expect to be the case. And we will keep under review the amount of funding that we are able to make available to support businesses, but we have provided—and I believe we may be the only Government in the UK that's done this—through the EU transition fund, a source of funding to support businesses and other organisations through the choppy waters that inevitably lie ahead for them.

Out of the £50 million fund, we've already committed a sum of around £35 million to £36 million. There are other proposals under consideration at the moment. He, I'm sure, will want to know that we are evaluating those proposals carefully in the interests of value for money and proper public accountability. And he is right to say that it is important for us to deploy those funds in as timely a way as possible. I point him to the announcement made by the Minister for finance, which she referred to in her statement a few moments ago, of the £85 million committed as a means of stimulating the economy to deal with the potentially damaging effects of the sort of Brexit that he and others are perfectly prepared to contemplate. 

In relation to legislation, I mentioned in my statement that the legislation I was referring to was by way of statutory instruments. Obviously, the elongation of the period of our membership of the European Union means we're looking at other legislation passing through the European Union. We are looking to make corrections in statutory instruments and there are other improvements that we are needing to make to deal with the deferred point of departure. They will be dealt with in terms of scrutiny in accordance with the arrangements agreed with the Constitutional and Legislative Affairs Committee and the Standing Orders of the Assembly.

Can I just gently remind speakers that we've had one question and a statement and we are halfway through the allocated time? So—[Interruption.] No, I'm not saying anybody, I'm just telling people that I have a number of speakers who wish to speak, so if we can just bear that in mind. Delyth Jewell.

Diolch, Dirprwy Lywydd. I wonder if we could take a moment to reflect on the regrettable and bizarre situation that we're in. We're talking about preparedness for various Brexit scenarios, every one of which will result in us being worse off than we are now. We are preparing simply to minimise the damage we inflict on ourselves. I welcome much of the Welsh Government's preparation, but it is a strange situation indeed, because preparing usually means planning for a specific event, but instead, Governments are forced to allocate resources to different scenarios knowing that some of it will be wasted.

The Minister talks about unicorns. It's fitting, because we seem to be in a topsy-turvy world, not just because we're preparing for something we can't foresee, but also because every decision taken by those in power in Westminster appears to be a proxy for something else. The referendum in 2016 was called as an attempt by David Cameron to placate the Eurosceptic wing of his party. People voted partly based on untruths, and now, the likely policy of the UK Government, be it under Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt, will be designed to appeal to the fewer than 160,000 Conservative Party members who will elect our next Prime Minister. Keeping the Conservative Party together has become a drama played out on the international stage. I might say, 'As flies to wanton Tories are we in this scenario, they play us for their sport', but I know my Shakespeare, and I don't think either candidate will turn out to be a reformed, benevolent Lear figure at the end of this contest.

As I've said, I welcome the steps that the Welsh Government is taking to prepare for a catastrophic 'no deal'—and it will be catastrophic—and I'd like to thank officials who are working so hard on this behind the scenes. Brexit has wasted unimaginable time, resource and opportunity. According to a recent report by S&P Global ratings, Brexit has cost the British economy £66 billion in just under three years. That's £1,000 per person—it hasn't happened yet—due to lack of growth that would otherwise have been expected, on top of funds directly spent on preparation. A topsy-turvy world indeed.

In respect of financial preparation for 'no deal', would the Minister update us on any progress in attempts to secure extra funding for Wales were 'no deal' unleashed upon us? How far have discussions reached and how much do you hope to secure? In terms of the time we've got left until the current Halloween exit date, would the Minister give his legal interpretation of what would happen were all relevant Brexit legislation not passed in time? If we find ourselves with an incoherent or gap-filled statute book, how will it affect this place's ability to function?

I'd like to welcome steps to support EU citizens. A constituent of mine who is an EU citizen has lived in the UK for the past 50 years, and is now very concerned since she let her non-UK passport lapse in the 1980s and is unable to pay for UK citizenship. Real people's lives are being turned upside down, day in, day out, by this uncertainty; anything we can do to help them is incredibly welcome. So, would the Minister please give a little detail about how the Government intends to reach out to those people to offer support?

Finally, Minister, you mention in your statement that if there is a snap general election,

'we will do all that we can to persuade the UK Labour Party' to cancel Brexit entirely. Could you please clarify who 'we' are in this instance? Is that the Labour-Lib Dem coalition Government in Wales, or does this refer to Welsh Labour? UK Labour has made it clear they're in favour of a referendum, so long as they're not in a position to deliver it, and will deliver Brexit if they're in Government. So, if your efforts to change that position fail, will Welsh Labour stand on a different manifesto from UK Labour, and if so, could you countenance breaking away as a separate entity, so that your MPs can be subject to a different whip in Westminster, or will we have a situation where the Labour Welsh Government's policy is at odds with the Labour Party manifesto? I ask for clarity in these topsy-turvy times.

I thank the Member for those questions. I'll try and deal with them succinctly given the Dirprwy Llywydd's instruction. On the question of an emergency funding commitment from the UK Government, no commitment of particular sums of money has been made by the Treasury in that particular context. She will know that the Minister for finance has been very clear that in the circumstances in particular of a 'no deal' Brexit, we would be in a position where we would require significant additional support from the UK Government to compensate for that scenario and to fund the consequences of it. In relation to the UK Government's guarantee, for example, in relation to European funding streams, there is a concern that that is narrower than we had previously understood, and I think there also remain questions around the timing of its availability in some circumstances. So, there is not the clarity that either she or I or others in this Chamber would wish to see in relation to the UK Government's financial commitment in that particular context.

She asked about the progress of legislation. Certainly, with regard to the secondary legislation and the statutory instruments programme that we've been undertaking here for a very long time at this point, the purpose of that is to ensure that the Welsh statute book, if I can use that term, is capable of continuing in a 'no deal' scenario, having transposed EU law into our law here in Wales. As I've mentioned in the past, we have made great progress in relation to that and I'm content that the statute book would reflect the position of EU law at the point of exit.

On the question of primary legislation, of course, some of the Bills remain in different stages at the House of Commons at this point. Clearly, some of those Bills need to be passed in order for us to have certain powers, in particular in the field of agriculture, reflecting the discussion we had in the Chamber earlier today. As the First Minister said in his statement earlier, we will need to be alive to the possible implications of a hard or a 'no deal' Brexit and the effect that that may have of creating the need here for legislation that is currently unforeseen, to deal with some of those consequences.

In relation to—. I think she was asking me a question about support for EU citizens living here in Wales, or citizens born in other parts of the EU, I should say. There is a suite of support provided in relation to immigration law advice, a public awareness campaign to identify the rights of EU citizens who are entitled to settle here in Wales. There is also a package of support to understand a broader range of rights for EU citizens here in Wales, and also activity under way to seek to extend the number of digital assistance centres for those people not able, easily themselves, to make an online application. So, there is a range of different measures of support that we are making available.

In relation to her last point, I'm going to resist the temptation of discussing in detail the constitutional arrangements of my party. Suffice it to say, standing here as a Welsh Labour politician, I don't think I could have been clearer in our position.

Can I thank the Minister for his statement this afternoon? It's very much appreciated. I know we've often said that we keep hearing it, but it is important we keep being updated, particularly in a world in which what was said yesterday may no longer be valid today, and it is very fluid—not quite topsy-turvy, but moving very fast, changing very quickly—and I also appreciate the fact that the comments made from the two candidates don't help that situation. Only yesterday, Boris Johnson was clearly saying that, in fact, he wants the backstop removed totally, so he's changed his position even on that now. Once it was 'renegotiate'; now it's 'get rid of', and we all know that the European Union has categorically said that's not going to happen, so we are heading for a 'no deal' scenario, and I think he's just trying to find an excuse to justify his 'no deal' scenario on 31 October. If that's the case, we need to prepare for it, because clearly there are some serious issues that Wales has to address on that matter.

I suppose I want to ask some of my questions focusing on literally that preparedness, because you highlighted in your statement very much the scenarios we are operating under, the context we're in, and then went on to move a little bit about some of the issues you've addressed. But can I talk about freight licences and heavy goods vehicle licences, for example? It's one of the areas we've talked about before. We have many logistics companies within Wales; there's a limited number of permits that will be available, and in a 'no deal' scenario, we could be facing a very challenging situation for those companies. What discussions have you had with the UK Government on the allocation of permits to Welsh companies, to ensure that they can operate if there is a 'no deal' scenario on 1 November? Also, what discussions have you had with the UK Government regarding the ports? Because, again, if that happens, we're going to be in a situation where we'll have to have border controls and regulatory controls on our ports, to look at the situations. Some of those responsibilities are not with the Welsh Government; they're with the UK Government. And yet ports, actually, is responsible under the Welsh Government, so what discussions are you having to make sure that we're in that position where we don't have to have a problem awaiting because simply it hasn't been thought of?

I will mention the legalities of it, because you mentioned, just now, obviously, the emergency legislation that may have to come through. Have you done any analysis as to what types and what areas you will be looking at? Because, you were saying we need to be aware of it, but it's not just being aware of it; we need to be ready for it. So, what areas are you actually looking at now, and are you looking at those areas so that when we come back after the summer recess, you'll be able to tell us exactly in which areas you think emergency legislation may be needed if we're in that situation?

Also, can you discuss the warehouses? We've been told—your statement highlights the point clearly—the warehousing issue is going to be contentious, because businesses want to continue operating under their normal regulation on business. That means they will want their warehouse spaces for their own businesses. We know that the Welsh Government looked at warehousing prior to the 29 March date. Where are we with, perhaps, refrigerated warehouses for medicines, if we need that? What's the situation for other warehousing, if we need that, because you're now in a competition with major organisations wanting warehouse space? So, again, have you made movements towards that area yet?

I also want to know if you have discussed any of these issues with EU officials and other nations and regions across the EU, because as a nation we have had many memorandums of understanding and agreements with other regions and nations, and we will want to work with those in the situation when we leave the EU without a deal. So, I started to have discussions with those nations to see where they can help us as well because they will be on, technically, the other side of the argument. Also, do you agree with me—I am tired, really tired, of Members continuing to say 'EU intransigence'—that it is not EU intransigence; it is the failure of this Government in Westminster to actually get to grips with the actual solution? It's time that they actually got that message out. It's not EU intransigence; it is Conservative incompetence that has got us into this position, and we need to make sure that that message is loud and clear across the nation, because they are the ones who are holding us back. The two leading candidates at the moment are two of the largest proponents today of that failure.

Minister.

I thank David Rees for his questions. I will deal with them in turn. On the question of haulage and the permitting, we are in close contact, obviously, with the Road Haulage Association and the Freight Transport Association in relation to the issues that they will face, both here in Wales and also, of course, further afield. The impact of this felt across the UK could potentially impact the Welsh economy's haulage and freight routes across the border. We have been pressing the UK Government in relation to this. I know that he is aware that falling back on the international permitting system could place severe restrictions, in practical terms, on operators' capacity to move goods across the UK-EU border. He will know, I think, that the EU has agreed a temporary solution were we to leave without a deal, so that goods would continue to be capable of being moved across the border on the basis of mutual recognition, but that extends to the end of this calendar year. As I understand it today, that hasn't been extended to reflect a departure date in October, so we continue to work with key stakeholders around what response is required in relation to that.

On the question of ports, he will recall, I think, the statement that the Minister for Economy and Transport made in April in relation in particular to the arrangements that we've agreed around Holyhead to establish the additional capacity at the Road King site and, indeed, Parc Cybi. Those arrangements remain available in a later Brexit, and stand ready to be deployed, should they be needed. That isn't the current expectation, but they are there as a fallback should they be required.

On the question of warehouse capacity, in relation to food supply in particular, as he knows, I think, the UK Government is leading on the issue of food supply across the UK, though plainly we feed into that as a Government. They are looking at warehousing capacity in relation to cold storage and so forth. He will also know, I think, that the Welsh Government has made available funding for cold storage in Wales through the private sector. In addition to that, in a context other than food, we clearly now have the capacity in the warehouse that we have acquired in south Wales to enable us to store medical devices and social care devices, enabling us to stock items that we perhaps wouldn't feel the need to stock, in the context of ensuring supplies to the NHS and the care sector. But it's obviously an issue that has a different set of considerations at the point of departure in October than in the spring because of the pressure on warehousing due to pre-Christmas stock and so on.

On the question of emergency legislation, I will just reassure the Member that this is a matter that is kept continually under review by lawyers looking at the progress of legislation. But, clearly, as I know his question implies, it is not possible to be definitive on what, if anything, might be required until the basis of departure is known to us. But that is a situation that is kept under close review.

His last question, I think, related to engagement with our partners in the European Union in relation to this. He will know that the First Minister was in Brussels a few weeks ago, and there continued to be official-level contact with partners in the European Union, so that they understand the position of the Welsh Government on behalf of the people of Wales.   

Well, thank you, Brexit Minister, for yet another Nostradamus statement with regard to Brexit. Whilst we in the Brexit Party understand that it is prudent to make preparations for every scenario with regard to our exit from the EU, including a 'no deal' Brexit, can it be said that those preparations are in fact prudent if they're based on wild predictions about a 'no deal' being a disastrous result, particularly for the Welsh economy? It appears that project fear is still being perpetrated with no real substance to the conclusions being drawn. Almost every piece of evidence instanced in your statement replicates the arguments used against us not taking up the euro. We all know how ludicrously false those predictions turned out to be. I note the comments with regard to the Tory Party appeasing their grass-roots members, but surely it can be said that Corbyn is equally obsessed with appeasing the fascist left of the Labour Party. You say there is no mandate for a 'no deal' Brexit. Well, we've just had a European election, and just in case you didn't understand, the name Brexit gives an idea as to what the party that won that election actually stands for, and we were very clear about the fact that we would countenance a 'no deal' Brexit.

Let's just look at some of the positive aspects of a 'no deal' scenario. A 'no deal' Brexit would mean that we do not pay the £39 billion now being contemplated. If there is a 'no deal', it would mean that this money could be used to subsidise our own industries, not those on the continent until such time as new, more lucrative markets are found. This would, of course, include our farming industry, and, in fact, subsidising the Welsh farming industry would be a tiny proportion of the total money saved from our not belonging to the Brussels debacle. You assert that job losses at Ford, Schaeffler and Calsonic are a result of uncertainty over Brexit, but that is an uncertainty spawned by remainers' refusal to accept the democratic vote of the British people. You of course conveniently forget the Bosch decision to move their plant from Miskin to Hungary, aided by European grants, with a resultant loss of 900 skilled, well-paid jobs.

We must remember that 95 per cent of Welsh businesses have nothing whatsoever to do with exporting, and an even smaller percentage involved in exporting to the EU, yet there is a considerable cost to every business complying with EU rules and regulations. Coming out of the EU could boost British and Welsh businesses by giving them greater freedoms to produce.

Perhaps we should consider the British fishing industry. At this very moment, there are 84 Dutch trawlers using the electronic stun fishing technique in what will be British waters after Brexit. This method of fishing is having a disastrous effect on crustacean and fish populations. It is said they're ignoring EU rules by claiming to be scientific vessels. In fact, British fishing grounds have been plundered by foreign vessels for close on half a century. So much for the oft-lauded European environmental legislation. Incidentally, our British trawlers are actually banned from fishing in the Mediterranean.

If we really are serious about preparing for a 'no deal' scenario, we should not be using it as a tool for promoting project fear. There may well be some downsides to leaving the EU, but all impartial economists predict this to be short term only. The UK has proved time and again that it has a hugely resilient economic base. We should not be afraid of Brexit, whichever form it takes. Better a 'no deal' scenario than that contemplated by some Members of this Assembly or, worse still, that envisaged by Theresa May.

I don't think I heard a question. I didn't hear a question from the Member. It is a statement and it was meant to have a lead-in and a question. I didn't hear any questions, I don't think.

I believe he asked whether the Welsh Government's arrangements could be said to be prudent, to which the answer is 'yes'.

That's fine, thank you. Mark Isherwood.

Diolch. Exports from Britain actually reached record highs in 2018 and have continued to rise since, totalling over £647 billion in the 12 months to May this year, with the fastest growing importers of UK goods predominantly non-European. The UK is still the top destination in Europe for foreign direct investment, and the third highest globally after the US and China. And, of course, in March, Mr Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, said that, in all scenarios, respecting the Good Friday agreement meant preventing the return of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. We know that 75 per cent of Wales’s exports are estimated to go to the rest of the UK, and only 15 per cent to the EU. And when officials from the representation of the German state Bremen told the external affairs committee that 10 per cent to 15 per cent of the gross domestic product of Germany is to the UK, they put this as it’s exposed to the UK market. So, there’s a degree of equivalence between the risks of not coming to a deal on both sides of what, hopefully, will be a very close continuing friendship.

Yesterday, your colleague the economy Minister issued a statement on the impacts of Brexit on Wales's economy, referring to two quadrilateral groups established, with ministerial colleagues from the UK Government and other devolved administrations. One focused on business and industry, and he stated that the inaugural meeting on business and industry was positive. Well, there are ongoing preparatory talks between Westminster officials and EU officials so that the new Prime Minister can hit the ground running with an understanding from both sides where there might be flex between now and the end of October. That is happening. What positive engagement—in the spirit of Mr Skates’s statement yesterday—therefore is the Welsh Government having with that process, so that, at this preparatory stage, with the objective of getting a deal in the mutual interests of the economies on both sides of the water—? How is the Welsh Government engaging with that?

Well, I thank the Member for his questions. I will just say, I simply do not share his optimistic outlook on the trade prospects for the UK outside the European Union—£3 out of every £4 earned by Welsh businesses from exports are earned by virtue of our membership of the European Union, and I think we throw that away at our peril, and much more importantly, at the peril of those business who look to us and look to Parliament to protect their interest.

He mentions the discussions in relation to future trade arrangements. He will, I think, recall that one of the points that we have pressed regularly with the UK Government is that the Welsh Government should be involved in preparing negotiating mandates for international negotiations. This is a practical step so that the UK’s negotiating positions command credibility, where they require implementation by the Welsh Government in Wales, but also it will be to respect the devolution boundary. And whilst it is the case that we have seen some progress in relation to that, we are very far short of the UK Government living up to that particular obligation that we seek from them, and I would urge him to do everything he can to seek to persuade his colleagues in Westminster of the virtue of our position.

Thank you very much.