– in the Senedd at 2:58 pm on 5 June 2018.
The next item is a statement by the Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Transport on rail services and the south Wales metro. I call on the Cabinet Secretary to make his statement—Ken Skates.
Diolch, Llywydd. I commend you to my written statement issued to Members yesterday. I am pleased to announce, following the completion of the statutory standstill period for the procurement of the operator and delivery partner for the Wales and borders rail service and south Wales metro, that Welsh Government has completed the formal contractual agreement and awarded the contract to KeolisAmey.
We are at a historic point for rail service provision and our partnership will revolutionise our rail network, bringing about transformational improvements to communities and people the length and breadth of Wales, and of course its borders. Our new rail service contract will focus on the heart of communities, ensuring services are accessible to all, with increased frequency of services, improved facilities and connecting people with jobs, health and leisure.
We have recently published our economic action plan. The people of Wales are a central focus of the interventions contained within the plan, supporting them to lead secure, healthy and rewarding lives, whether it’s connecting them to employment and other opportunities through quality infrastructure, equipping them with the skills they need, or supporting our economic foundations. KeolisAmey share this vision. They have demonstrated their commitment to bringing best practice in rail and light rail operations to Wales, investing in infrastructure, rolling stock and staff, and harnessing technology to deliver for the people, communities and economies of Wales.
I'd like to take this opportunity to personally thank staff at Transport for Wales and all those involved in the process in this truly remarkable example of a cross-Government approach to procurement. Transport for Wales will be responsible for managing the rail services on our behalf, and delivering our investment in rail and metro infrastructure, and together they will deliver this new transformative rail service that Wales can be proud of over the next 15 years.
Can I thank the Cabinet Secretary for his statement, and I should also thank him for the briefing events that you put on yesterday afternoon and this morning, which were extremely helpful, so I thank you for that?
The awarding of the new rail franchise represents a multibillion pound opportunity and I, like you, Cabinet Secretary, want to make sure that every Welsh person benefits from that investment. I've yet to see the exact breakdown of how much has been invested by the Welsh Government and how much has been invested by the operator. I appreciate I may have missed this information in recent days, but I'd be grateful if you could outline the details of the funding profile of how much the Welsh Government and how much the operator will be investing in each year of the contract.
The contractor's relationship with Network Rail, of course, is crucial, and I'm wondering what alliance will be formed between the franchise operator and Network Rail. I wonder if you can outline what structures are going to be put in place to ensure there's a close working relationship between Network Rail and the contractor in the day-to-day running of the network, and, of course, with Transport for Wales as well.
I was particularly pleased to see the commitment in regard to 4G and 5G roll-out, with masts along the track, and I suppose that provides an example of the question I just asked with regard to Network Rail being responsible for one area, and the operator—the other, of course, Network Rail, owning the land around the track. And with regard to the improved mobile infrastructure, how will that dovetail with the Welsh Government's mobile action plan?
I do want to ask you about accessibility of toilets on trains. Of course, we know of the new legislation coming into force by 2020, and that some train companies are trying to get around the legislation on old Pacer trains by locking train toilets. I appreciate you've made some statements in this regard, but I would be interested in hearing from you, Cabinet Secretary, your views on how we guard against the unintended consequences of the persons with reduced mobility legislation, and a strong statement from you with regard to disability access to toilets on trains would be welcome.
And finally, could I ask you, Cabinet Secretary, to agree to a couple of points: to publish, in partnership, of course, with Transport for Wales and KeolisAmey, the opportunities that make clear to small and medium-sized enterprises in Wales every commercial opportunity over the coming years that the franchise presents; to provide updates on what additional measures Transport for Wales are taking to advertise the financial opportunities that the franchise represents; and, finally, to publish specific Welsh Government targets for the percentage of work won on this scheme by Welsh firms going forward? Thank you, Presiding Officer.
Can I thank the Member for his questions and for welcoming the announcement that took place yesterday, and the details of the new Wales and borders franchise? We made sure through the scoring process of the procurement exercise that everybody in all parts of Wales and, indeed, the borders area, benefited from the new franchise arrangements. The scoring system was such that it ensured that the bidders were keen to demonstrate how they were going to bring transformative change to all parts of the Wales and borders area.
I think the Member is right to highlight the importance of a number of very significant issues that have been highlighted in recent times, including accessibility and toilets. I can confirm that every toilet on all of the trains will be PRM compliant by the time that they need to be. It's absolutely essential that lower emission PRM toilets are incorporated on all of the trains that will be operating and the ODP has given a very, very clear guarantee that that will happen. The First Minister earlier stated that £15 million will be made available for accessibility at stations across Wales for people who are of limited mobility. There are a number of stations that I know of personally, including my own station of Ruabon, that do not have step-free access, or additional access to step-only access. That will be resolved in the coming franchise arrangements. Every station within the metro area will also be step-free accessible. And in terms of toilets, there will be additional toilets on stations within the metro network to ensure that, for the solution within the core Valleys lines network, no passenger will have to wait more than 14 minutes in order to gain access to a universal access toilet.
The Member raises other important points regarding procurement opportunities for SMEs. We're in the process at the moment of engaging as many Welsh-based companies and borderland companies as possible in the process of identifying infrastructure development partner opportunities to ensure that we capture maximum opportunity for Welsh-based companies. In addition, Transport for Wales, of course, has been set up as a not-for profit-organisation. In the future, it's our anticipation that Transport for Wales will be able to let additional services on a not-for-profit basis to more Welsh companies, and it's also our expectation in the future that Transport for Wales will be able to take on additional responsibilities for other forms of transport management and infrastructure delivery—again being able, in doing so, to award more contracts for Welsh SMEs.
In terms of the work that the operation and development partner will be undertaking with Network Rail, there will be collaborative work taking place with Network Rail, but it will also be on the basis of work being undertaken on a collaborative basis with Transport for Wales as well. I'm pleased that Wales will be represented on the Network Rail national board by a member from Wales itself, ensuring that Wales has a voice on the Network Rail board. I think everybody would acknowledge in the Chamber that, in recent times, the Welsh rail network has not received the sort of infrastructure funding that it should rightly expect. I hope that in the next round, the next control period, that will be addressed, and certainly having Welsh representation on the board at Network Rail will be of assistance.
In terms of the roll-out of new technology, KeolisAmey have designed the roll-out of improved Wi-Fi, the installation of new masts, in line with our Superfast Cymru and mobile interventions to ensure that they don't duplicate them, but instead that we have seamless pathways from train to station to train in terms of Wi-Fi. I'm confident that given the investment that KeolisAmey are looking at placing within new and emerging technologies we will be able to see every train providing free access to Wi-Fi in the coming years. This will be a transformational franchise arrangement, and I'm keen to ensure that we maximise opportunities, not just for the businesses of today but also for new businesses who will be able to look at opportunities where there are new stations.
Now, one of the key benefits for many rural communities of this franchise agreement is the promise that has been made to invest in station buildings and in the landscaping of stations and in bringing stations back into use where they are currently not in use, and that could provide huge opportunities, particularly in rural communities, for new business start-ups at stations. I think many of us could point to a huge number of stations within the 247 station slab that exists on the Wales and borders network where there are opportunities to open up space to new businesses, whether it be in retail, whether it be in hospitality, whether it be in business design or creative industries. There are huge opportunities, and I'm particularly pleased to see a strong focus by the operator and development partner on that potential business area.
I'll start, if I can, by referring to what the First Minister said earlier today in suggesting that Plaid Cymru somehow is doing Wales's rail down. I think we're all excited about the prospect of hopefully getting some more decent trains at some point. I have no doubt that KeolisAmey have put together a very impressive bid, and I congratulate them on landing this lucrative deal. So, is it—[Interruption.]
There's no opportunity for an intervention, so the Member doesn't need to take it as an intervention.
So, Plaid Cymru doing Wales's rail down—the context is quite important here. It's successive Labour and Conservative UK Governments that have done Wales's rail down: the Conservatives, who've recently rowed back on electrification; 13 years of Labour Governments before them that failed to get any electrification done, north, south, east or west; a Labour Government—I think I'm right—that left us with the laughable zero-growth Arriva franchise—laughable, that is, if it wasn't so serious for the thousands of Valleys lines commuters squeezing onto trains, day after day, or north-south travellers sitting on trains for five hours that are really best suited for half-hour or hour-long journeys. So, yes, we're all excited about the prospect of new, fresher trains. I was on the enterprise and business committee in the last Assembly when we considered, in great detail, the dire straits—the dire state, actually—of the current rail system that we have in Wales. Passengers know that it's about time we had better trains, because they've seen pictures of what they have in other countries—they've been on holiday and they've travelled on trains more suited to this century rather than the middle of the last. So, I would urge the Government to be realistic in your expectations about how grateful people should be for what we have now, or what is being promised after suffering the service that they have done for so long.
Now, reading sections of the statement issued by you yesterday—and we're grateful for that statement—there's an element of sadness in many ways. The quality of the franchise deal is very, very important. The last franchise deal left us wanting for so much. We were told 15 years ago that we were having trains that weren't fit for the twenty-first century—we've still got those trains now. Even now we're told that one in every 20 journeys, for some years to come, will continue to be serviced by the current rusty, battered, out-of-date rolling stock that we currently have—[Interruption.] Well, you can clarify that, but 95 per cent travelling on new trains in a few years, you say—that still leaves one in 20 on the very old twentieth-century rolling stock that we currently have. You're having to wait until 2020, still, to have power supply charging points on trains, we were told in the statement yesterday. And again, one in 20 journeys won't have that basic necessity.
It was really important to learn from the mistakes of the last franchise and make sure that they weren't replicated this time around, and I'm not entirely convinced, yet, that those lessons have been learnt. You stated in your statement that onboard catering remains a key feature of services on the Wales and borders network. Anyone travelling north-south will tell you—apart from the one train a day, one northwards and one to the south, that has proper buffet facilities—anybody travelling on the usual trains, north-south, will tell you that the trains aren't suitable for those long journeys—five-hour journeys on trains suitable for short hops. I got on the train in Bodorgan—I would urge anybody to get on the train in Bodorgan, it's a station in a field in the middle of Anglesey; I feel very proud of our little station, but it's a good two and a half or three hours until we get a cup of tea served. And I remember asking Arriva, 'Why doesn't the tea trolley come on until Shrewsbury?', and the answer I got was, 'Because the franchise agreement said that the tea trolley shouldn't come on until Shrewsbury.' So, getting that franchise agreement right is absolutely vital. So, when you say that, in the new all-singing, all-dancing franchise deal,
'As a minimum, provision will be of the same level as that currently available', that fills me with dread about my journeys from—. This is from your statement; I'm quoting from your statement yesterday. That fills people with dread, because people want to use the train more for north-south journeys, and people are looking for a better service. Being told that current provision of things like a cup of tea, a glass of water, on a five-hour journey shouldn't be too much to ask for in the twenty-first century.
Let me ask for your thoughts, also, on the role of the new system for bringing Wales together. Public transport isn't just about moving people from A to B. Surely, our new, visionary rail system for Wales should be about, effectively, bringing A and B closer together, building a network that ties different parts of Wales together. I see very little in that list of improvements that was published yesterday that shows us that we are creating here a genuine Wales-wide rail system. Of course there are improvements—I see the increase in train numbers on certain routes, on many different routes, and improvements for commuters, and new trains—and that's great, but where is the creation of the all-Wales rail system?
On the profit element, picking up on comments made by Leanne Wood earlier on, rail shouldn't have been privatised in the way that it was, but it is privatised. What I'm looking to see is real public control of the money that flows through the rail system. Could you give us more assurances about how we tie in improved performance, which we hopefully will get from the new operator, with how the money gained from that new performance will actually be driven back into the rail network? Those are the kinds of clarifications that we need now. We lost control of rail; rail became a cash cow. Companies were able to profit—still are able to profit. We need to make sure that this is watertight, and I'm still not quite yet hearing that this is total public control of rail in Wales.
On the question of not-for-profit rail operators, the First Minister said earlier, 'Well, we can't do it. The law says that we cannot have a public rail system.' What we can have, of course, and we investigated this in the last—[Interruption.] Thank you for the suggestion that I have a few seconds left. We looked in the committee in the last Assembly at the prospect of creating a not-for-profit vehicle, which certainly is allowable under legislation. Can you tell me, as a final question, what efforts Government made to look at the prospect of finding, developing, sourcing a vehicle for delivering rail not for profit? If you tried and failed, why did you still put it in your manifestos that you wanted a not-for-profit system? If you didn't try at all, well, what on earth were you doing, putting it in your manifestos? I'll leave it there. Thank you, Llywydd.
Can I thank the Member for his questions and his contribution? I think it's fair to say that his message was somewhat inconsistent with the message given earlier from the leader of his party, in terms of welcoming the franchise agreement. I should just point out that the new arrangements were described earlier this afternoon by the leader of Plaid Cymru as 'second rate'.
It's clear that the position of Plaid Cymru, with regard to letting this franchise, is such that they would have been in no other position, were they in power, other than to continue with the current franchise arrangements, because it is simply—[Interruption.] Because it is simply not possible to ensure that a public body is able to run the current rail network as it stands in law. We tried to change that law, as every party recognises. It could have been the case—a not-for-profit organisation could have won the contract if they had bid, but none did, and we clearly would still prefer nationalisation. However, within the straitjacket in which we operate, we believe that this is, by far, the best deal that could have been struck.
Indeed, Members of Plaid Cymru signed up to a report not long ago that stated that, if we were to reach the point that we're at today, we would have achieved heroic ambition. We've done that, and in having that position—one that is so intransigent as to not recognise that we need to be pragmatic with regard to the award of the rail franchise—it suggests that the only way forward for Plaid Cymru would have been to continue with the current arrangements, and the price of that would have been enormous: 16 per cent higher in terms of subsidies. So, the price that Plaid would have paid over the course of 15 years would have amounted to more than £300 million in addition: 16 per cent more. We're going to save 16 per cent as a consequence of the agreement that we've reached, and there would have been a continuation of the poor services that Members have already highlighted and, of course, the accumulation, annually, of profits of more than £28 million. That's a fact, if you'd continued with the current arrangements, and that's the only place you could have gone to, based on your current argument.
If Plaid Cymru can't welcome our having delivered what their own Members described as a heroic ambition, then surely—surely—there should be some recognition of the enormous benefits that will come to Wales as a consequence of this new franchise: £800 million more on rolling stock; £194 million more on stations; half-price tickets for 16 to 18-year-olds; half of the trains built in Wales. I think it's time to just recognise that, sometimes, we do deliver. We do deliver and we have done. We have delivered an excellent franchise arrangement for the people of Wales.
Profits were raised as an issue earlier, and by the Member now. The profit of 3 per cent was mentioned earlier, and 2.9 per cent. Well, if you look at what Arriva have been making in terms of profits: pre-tax profits in recent times have reached as much as 18.6 per cent; post-tax profits, 6.9 per cent; dividends of £20 million being paid to the parent company; just £3 million invested in—[Interruption.]
We did not sign that contract. That was not a Labour—. That was a non-departmental public body. They got it wrong. They got it wrong, and I'm on record on numerous occasions saying that they got it wrong. I wish those on that side of the Chamber would admit that they've been quick to criticise the way that we've gone about procuring this exercise on numerous occasions, but now is the time to be contrite because we have got it right for the people of Wales.
And in terms of the operator and development partner making a profit, well, it's interesting, because Keolis and Amey both have excellent track records in delivery. If you look at customer satisfaction, actually the two best performing networks at the moment in the UK, in terms of customer satisfaction, are the docklands light railway and the Manchester metro system—both operated by Keolis. And in terms of Amey: an excellent track record, as the Member should know, because one of the organisations that they work for is the Plaid-run Isle of Anglesey council.
In terms of quality, and the Member is absolutely right to say that it's all about the quality of provision—I'll forgive him for not having read all of the brief, because there is a substantial amount of information in there—but he said that people will have to ride on rusting rolling stock that we have now. The statement said that every train is going to be replaced, and that 95 per cent of all passenger journeys will be based on brand-new rolling stock by 2023. [Interruption.] No, the Member said we will still be operating rusting rolling stock that we have now. [Interruption.] No.
Four years.
No. We will be replacing the units that currently operate on the north-south main line. We're going to be moving to freshly refitted and refurbished Mark 4 trains. Why? Well, because during the consultation process—and 1,300 people and organisations participated in that process—we were told that that much-valued service needed to be enhanced in terms of journey times and in terms of the quality of provision. And so, as a consequence, the bidders went out to look for the best rolling stock solutions. The Mark 4 is a class leader in terms of comfort. It is recognised as being one of the best trains in terms of passenger comfort and so, for that reason, they will be refitted and brought into use as soon as possible.
In terms of the new trains that will be operating, actually, the new diesel multiple units will be operating not in 2023-24, as the Member has just called across the Chamber. In north Wales, which I know the Member is very keen to see benefit from this exercise—. North Wales will be the first area to benefit from the new DMUs in 2022, and in terms of the north-south service that, again, the Member has referred to on a number of occasions, not only are we going to be maintaining the current service level, we are going to be improving it with bidirectional services.
The Member also said that the onboard catering offer is currently insufficient, and I agree. That's why I said that, as a minimum, provision should be maintained at the same level everywhere, and improved wherever possible. So, as a consequence, what the successful bidder has promised to do is to improve the catering offer on the service that the Member identified. But it's not just that service: the catering offer will be improved across the Wales and borders network. It's absolutely crucial that passengers expect a higher level of comfort, and a greater degree of catering offer. They wouldn't have got that if we had maintained the current franchise agreement, which is what the leader of Plaid Cymru would have to do, but they will get it with our franchise agreement.
And in terms of transport bringing people closer together, there are many examples of how people are going to be brought closer together in this. Transport for Wales will be a national not-for-profit organisation tasked with maintaining an oversight of the current franchise agreement and making sure that there are improvements in the network, carried out at speed and to budget. But in terms of some of the examples of how people are going to be brought closer together, from this December there'll be new services; there'll be changes introduced in 2019; and there'll be 22 per cent more Sunday mileage operations from 2019. Cardiff Central to Bridgend: a perfect example of how we can bring people closer together. There's going to be a consistent four-train-per-hour solution from 2019. I could go on. The list is there, ready for Members to see, if they wish. Every single service improvement demonstrates how we are uniting the country better, bringing people closer together and bringing people closer to their places of work more speedily as well.
In terms of profit, the Member is right, profit does need to be reinvested wherever, whenever possible. We are capping the profit margins of the operator and development partner, and all excess will be reinvested back into the network. We're going to be monitoring the performance of the operator, and we're also going to be looking at using break clauses as a means to ensure that they deliver against the proposals that they've outlined in their procurement bid.
In terms of the not-for-profit question—whether a not-for-profit organisation could operate the rail services—again, I must stress that there was nothing preventing a not-for-profit organisation from bidding. Unfortunately, one did not—[Interruption.] We were encouraging one, and indeed, it was in our manifesto. That's why we were encouraging a not-for-profit organisation. Sadly, none came forward.
The key point here, Llywydd, is the interest of passengers. That is what matters most, and we are delivering a first-class franchise arrangement for the people of Wales.
Well, perhaps I ought to point out that those wonderful trains that Rhun ap Iorwerth referred to on the continent were probably paid for by the billions of pounds Britain has poured into Europe over the last 40 years.
But, to move on, can I thank the Cabinet Secretary for this statement, which gives a comprehensive overview of what the new franchise is expected to deliver over the coming years? I must say, there are some mouthwatering promises that should silence even the most critical of commentators. Enhancements to stations, rolling stock and vastly increased timetables augur well for the future of rail travel in Wales and the borders. The competitive dialogue process certainly seems to be justified by the commitments you have extracted from the winning franchisee.
We are, of course, very aware of aspirations as opposed to outcomes, so it is gratifying to know that you've put in place clauses allowing you to terminate contracts at the five and 10-year stage if the franchisee does not deliver as envisaged. There are many improvements to services' frequency and times that, together with the increased capacity provided by new and more numerous units of rolling stock, should provide the quality of service so desperately needed to improve passenger satisfaction.
There is just one note of disappointment, as a Member for south Wales, and that is, although you speak of extra services, better rolling stock and rail improvements to the Ebbw Vale line, there remains the notable omission of a commitment to a rail link into Newport. When I questioned Arriva Trains with regard to why this link could not be achieved, they indicated that the line was at full capacity with the service to Cardiff. Will the Cabinet Secretary indicate whether the new improvements to the Ebbw Vale line will at long last create enough capacity for this desperately needed Newport connection? Thank you.
Can I thank the Member for his contribution, for his questions and for warmly welcoming the announcement, and can I thank him for on previous occasions also welcoming the process by which we have procured the Wales and borders franchise operator, that being competitive dialogue?
I think it's an interesting example of how, in carrying out an innovative and creative approach, we have been able to showcase to the rest of the UK how perhaps procurement of rail contracts should be carried out in the future. Up until now, the way that franchises have been let has been such that Governments have sent out a big transit van of specifications and then bidders have come back with a price, and that means of going about procuring a contractor has led to bidders being incentivised to just give the lowest cost return and, in doing so, often to provide an unsustainable provision. As a consequence, we've seen the failure of franchise arrangements across the UK. What we've done is turned that on its head and through a process of having a funding envelope and entering into competitive dialogue we've said to bidders: 'This is the envelope; this is the maximum sum of money available; what can you do for it?' And then we've stretched and stretched in order to ensure that we get the best possible arrangements, and I think that's why we've been able to extract such a positive deal for people the length and breadth of Wales.
The Member is absolutely right about rolling stock needing to improve. More than 140 new trains will be provided for the network and, of course, more than half of those will be built in Wales. Every single one of the 247 stations will receive an upgrade. It's quite a fact, actually, that, in the current franchise arrangement over the last 15 years, we believe that approximately £600,000 has been spent on stations. In contrast, the figure will be £194 million in the next franchise—quite a contrast, and I think that again demonstrates why the previous franchise arrangement was unfit, whereas the current arrangements that we've agreed are superb for passengers and communities alike.
I'm pleased to be able to say to the Member that the South Wales Argus's campaign for Ebbw Vale to Newport services has been successful, and Members have achieved what they have wished to do over many years because within the franchise arrangement there will be a train per hour operating between Ebbw Vale and Newport. It's something that many people during the consultation exercise said they needed, they wanted, and I'm pleased that we've been able to provide it.
I warmly welcome this announcement. I think it's very positive and very exciting and will bring great benefits to Wales. I certainly welcome the method of procurement, which I think will result in a more passenger-focused service, and I congratulate the Cabinet Secretary on his achievement.
I just want to welcome particularly a certain—. I welcome the emphasis on introducing electric trains and the commitment to sourcing this from renewable sources—50 per cent from within Wales; I think that is a great step forward—and also the use of the tri-mode trains, which will minimise disruption on the Valleys lines.
My constituents in Cardiff North are always complaining about not being able to get on the trains or the trains being so crowded that they find the journey is very difficult, so I'm really pleased that there are going to be, I think it's 45 per cent, more seats in the peak morning travel time. So, I think that will be a huge help to my constituents in Cardiff North.
I'm also very pleased about the new stations that are being proposed. There's a new station being proposed called the Gabalfa station. Now, that is not exactly where I had expected it to be, and it's actually in Llandaff North ward. I welcome it, but I wondered if the Cabinet Secretary had any information about how a decision was made about where exactly to site it, because it's not exactly where I thought it would be, and whether that is set in stone as well. We certainly need a station in that area, but I think there would be benefits to it being in a slightly different place.
I was also very interested to see that there are plans to develop a metro spur link to Velindre cancer centre, which is something that I've been very keen to see, because, obviously, with the increasing numbers of people who are using the services of Velindre, particularly due to an ageing population, the more public transport we can get that's going straight into Velindre in this way, I think, will be ideal. So, I wondered if the Cabinet Secretary could provide any more details on the plans for the cross-Government working on this, which is referred to in his statement yesterday.
Lastly, I'd like to support your call for the Welsh Government to take on responsibility for the inter-city franchise between Wales and the rest of the UK.
Can I thank Julie Morgan for her questions and again for warmly welcoming the announcement?
I'm also delighted that the preferred bidder was able to bring forward very ambitious plans for reducing carbon emissions—a reduction of 25 per cent in the next five years—and, probably more importantly, the promise that 100 per cent of the electric to be used on the electrification of services will be renewable, and that 50 per cent will be sourced from Wales. With the tri-mode trains, with our battery-operated trains, I think we're demonstrating that Wales is trailblazing as the providers of twenty-first century electrification. Until recently, it's always been assumed that you can only electrify by installing a huge number of pylons, cables everywhere, but, actually, that's not the case. It was recently highlighted in the Welsh Affairs Select Committee's report that the potential of hydrogen and battery-operated trains today is enormous. Some countries, to be fair, have been operating those sorts of technological improvements for many years—Japan, for example, have been using that sort of technology for over a decade—but few in the UK. So, I'm delighted that Wales will be at the forefront of using renewable energy, using a new form of electrification, and trailblazing in that way.
I'm also pleased, as the Member highlighted, that we'll see a significant increase in capacity. I think the staggering fact that there will be a 65 per cent increase in the size of the fleet across the Wales and borders network and the metro area shows that there is huge, huge potential to meet now the expected passenger growth, which is currently standing at around about 74 per cent by 2030. So, clearly, what the bidder, what KeolisAmey, have provided within their procurement bid meets passenger expectations in terms of demand for seats.
In terms of the siting of new stations, well, this was carried out on the basis of the availability of land and property and the potential to integrate with other forms of transport—buses, active travel, strategic park and ride—and also the need to integrate with strategic land planning for new developments and, of course, the need to be positioned in strategically important areas for people to be able to gain access to them from home and from work. I'm happy to discuss further the siting of the particular station that the Member has highlighted, but the Member is absolutely right in pointing to the spur that will serve Velindre, that this is a great example of the integration of public services with public transport.
In terms of cross-Government working, I'm keen to continue dialogue with my colleagues, particularly in local government and in health and in planning, to ensure that, where there is social infrastructure being created, it matches perfectly the transport infrastructure that is also being planned for those areas.
Cabinet Secretary, listening to Plaid Cymru today reminded me of an old foundry workers' union representative who, when his workers had been out on strike, went into negotiations. He came out afterwards and said to his members, a mass meeting of the members—he said, 'Well,' he said, 'brothers and sisters,' he said, 'I've negotiated an extra week's holiday pay,' he said, 'I've negotiated a 10 per cent increase, and not only that,' he said, 'you are only going to have to work on a Friday.' And the bloke at the back shouts out, 'What? Every Friday?' I can only presume that that was a member of Plaid Cymru because, listening to their comments today, it seems to me that there is not a single thing about this whole package that is of any benefit. Well, I can tell you that, certainly, in my constituency, having Transport for Wales, first of all, coming into Pontypridd, is going to significantly regenerate that town. It's already having that effect: 500 to 1,000 jobs. Having the new rolling stock maintenance within my constituency, in Taff's Well, creating several hundred jobs, is also something that is very much welcomed by the people of Pontypridd and Taff Ely. And the fact that we now have in Coleg y Cymoedd some of the best training programmes, and I'm glad to see that you attended Nantgarw in order to make the launch, is again very significant—very significant because, of course, some of us will remember that that was the site of the former Nantgarw colliery and coke works; what a regenerated area. Also there's the fact that, now, of course, the Treforest industrial estate station is going to move, and I'd like you perhaps to comment a little bit about the precise timetable and timescale for that move closer towards Nantgarw.
Could you also perhaps just outline the benefits that are going to be there, particularly for the 16 to 18-year-olds, in terms of the ticket regime, because that's been something of considerable benefit, and also perhaps at some stage whether you are considering the extension—as I declare an interest here—in the concessionary travel card for over-60s to the rail network as well?
Can I also ask you just for confirmation that there will definitely be, in accordance with the discussions with ASLEF and the RMT trade unions, guards on the trains? Because people want guards on the trains. They see them as being something that gives them security, gives them comfort and confidence in the rail network, and it's something that's been lost in other areas.
And can I then ask you one very final point? And that is, of course, that most of these trains will be up and running by 2023. We need to start preparing now for the next phase, and you'll know I've raised with you, of course, the issue of the railway line going up to Llantrisant. And, of course, I had a tweet earlier today saying that Nessie has at long last been sighted heading up towards the A470, and I've tweeted back saying, well, we hope Nessie's only stopping off and is now going to be heading up towards Llantrisant where we're all waiting to see her there.
Can I thank Mike Antoniw for his observations and for his questions? I think he points to a very significant development in his own constituency, the establishment of Transport for Wales in Pontypridd. It could act as a perfect example of how we can use transport-related infrastructure, transport-related business, to drive economic growth across Wales. And I'm particularly keen to make sure that, from this franchise agreement, we draw out every possible opportunity to drive economic growth in an inclusive way across Wales.
I was also delighted that the launch of the new franchise took place at the Nantgarw rail facility, a facility that is bringing hope and opportunity to young people and, again, which will become an even more important facility in the years to come as a consequence of this very franchise agreement.
In terms of the timetable for the move that the Member highlighted, I can get the Member more details on that, but we are committed to doing the work that is required in a timely fashion to enable services to be running as expected and to the planned date of 2023.
In terms of concessionary travel for young people, of course, we are extending free travel from under-fives to under-11s. We are also offering reduced opportunities, or reduced fares, for 16 to 18-year-olds, halving the cost of tickets for 16 to 18-year-olds. And we're also going to be offering free off-peak travel to 11 to 16-year-olds that are accompanied by an adult on some services—again, crucially important for families to be able to be connected with one another, particularly at weekends, where they might want to go to watch a rugby match or a football match, or any other form of sport or cultural activity. And this precise benefit will apply to families and to friends alike. Current arrangements for over-60s will be maintained, and I do agree that it's vitally important that there is a guard or a second person on the train, not just for security, but for safety reasons as well.
And, in terms of moving beyond 2023, the metro is being designed in such a way that it can be extended, and I'm particularly keen to ensure that people in communities where there is a high proportion of people who can't yet easily access work on public transport are given the opportunity to do so in the future through extending the metro and, indeed, not just extending the metro in the south-east, but also right across Wales, seeing services extended through future investment in the infrastructure and in the trains that run on them.
We are out of time for this statement, but, given its importance, I'll extend the statement time slightly, but if I can call on Members to be succinct in their questions—. Nick Ramsay.
Just one question from me, diolch, Llywydd. I also welcome your statement, Cabinet Secretary, and thank you for arranging the briefing. I went to the breakfast one this morning, and it was inspiring stuff. We just need to make sure that it does work to plan, but what I saw was very positive.
Can I ask you in terms of the KeolisAmey commitment to disabled access at our railway stations and general accessibility? There have been ongoing problems with poor disabled access at Abergavenny station in my constituency for many years now, and certainly under Arriva's franchise. What discussions have you had with KeolisAmey around the problems at that particular station? What solutions are they proposing? Will the new franchise address these problems and how long will it be before people in Abergavenny see the improvements to access that that station so desperately needs?
Can I thank Nick Ramsay for welcoming the announcement, and also thank Nick and every other Member who attended the breakfast briefing for taking part in that? Because I think it's important that we're able to share as much of the information as possible with Members, who I'm in no doubt will then pass on that information to constituents.
Disabled access was a key consideration, not just in the procurement exercise, but also in the work carried out by the economy and infrastructure committee when looking into the future franchise arrangements. I'm particularly pleased that no stations on the metro map will have step-only access. Every station will be addressed, and work will be carried out to ensure that disabled access is improved. Abergavenny is one of those stations that will see improvements. In addition, £15 million is being made available to improve access at stations outside of the metro area, again bringing opportunities for people to be able to access trains at stations that are currently prohibited to them.
In terms of the time frame, the work that is going to be carried out between now and 2023, when the metro services will be fully operational, will include the access work that is required. I don't know where exactly Abergavenny sits in terms of the timetable for infrastructure work that needs to be carried out, but I'll certainly write to the Member, and other Members, as soon as I can with details about the specific time frame during which those stations will be improved.
If I could ask the Cabinet Secretary—. He’s just mentioned some of the ways in which the franchise can cut down on carbon emissions; can he confirm specifically that we will see trains using hydrogen as part of this programme over the next 15 years? Such trains are already running in certain parts of Germany, and it’s a way, as he suggested, of skipping beyond the electrification problems that we have at the moment and introducing something better immediately for the people of Wales.
The second thing I want to ask is on the financial infrastructure underpinning all of this. We know some of the details, but not all of them, because it is confidential in terms of costs. But on Friday, you published a written statement on access payments for the railways, and I was pleased to see that you had come to an agreement now with the UK Government, but the details are not yet available. Can you confirm when those details and that agreement will be published so that we can scrutinise that? You will recall, of course, that if you don’t come to an agreement, then to all intents and purposes, you will pay £1 billion over 15 years in order to get that access under the current system. You say that that is coming to an end—excellent—but you also say that you have had to agree under the current comprehensive spending review to spend over £100 million over the next two years. Given that the UK Government is only giving £125 million for the south Wales metro, that is an example of giving with one hand and taking with the other. The Welsh Government is not much better off from the contribution from the Government that is still responsible—as they haven’t devolved the railways—for the railways across the UK. So, can you just give us a little more flesh on the bone in terms of those figures and explain when you will be publishing a statement on the full agreement, so that we have an opportunity to scrutinise that financial agreement very carefully?
Can I thank Simon Thomas for his questions? I think the use of hydrogen trains will be seen more widely in the years to come. They're still being tested in certain environments and on certain railways, but it's my view that we'll see far more examples of hydrogen trains on rail networks around the world in the next decade or so. They did not form any part of the bid from the franchise operator. However, should future excess profits be reinvested into new rolling stock, then certainly hydrogen trains could be considered, especially as we roll out metro concepts elsewhere in Wales. Instead, twenty-first century electrification—if you like, next generation electrification—has been utilised, with battery power. Some people still hark back to the days when pylons and cables signalled the future. Well, in a similar way to the way that iPhones and iPads show that you don't need to plug in your Apple computer, so too battery-operated trains show that you don't need to have cables everywhere. The next natural step might well be hydrogen—we don't know what the market will demand as of yet. But, certainly, as we examine the development of hydrogen trains and the reliability of them, it will be a key consideration for any future reinvestment in the rail network and any future reinvestment in rolling stock.
In terms of track access charges, I would be more than happy to write to Members with details of the agreement that was reached with the Secretary of State. I have to say that the Secretary of State and I have reached an agreement following what I think have been very positive discussions that have taken place since September 2017. The Member is absolutely right that the agreement with the Secretary of State addresses what was widely reported last year, where the Welsh Government would have been required to pay the UK Government over £1 billion over the next 15 years in track access charges. We've essentially prevented the Welsh taxpayer from having to shoulder the burden of the best part of £1 billion, and with the end to this adjustment payment we've agreed to a new arrangement, similar to the arrangement that is in place between the franchise operations in England and the Department of Transport, which also takes into account, of course, of the way that the Welsh Government is funded. This means, in turn, that the forecast access charge costs in the bid are what will be paid for the next 15 years. Due to the complications with the existing spending review, two further adjustment payments will be made up until 2020, as the Member identified.
It's worth reiterating that the Secretary of State for Transport has reconfirmed the UK Government will provide £125 million of funding towards the south-east Wales metro and the Department for Transport will fund the Welsh Government for England-only services as well. But I'm perfectly happy to provide more details on the agreement.
Like colleagues on these benches, I'm very keen to celebrate all that you've managed to achieve. I think there are huge benefits from this new contract. Obviously, being able to buy our tickets on the phone and integrated ticketing so that the full journey is completed from when we go home to our destination and back again—that's all fantastic. And also being able to build our new carriages in Wales means that we can respond much more quickly when there's increased demand.
I've got one specific query. In your statement yesterday you talked about 45 per cent more seats being available going into Cardiff in the morning peak rush hour, and I just wondered if that's going to be sufficient given that we currently have 80,000 people commuting into Cardiff at the moment, which is completely unacceptable. It's going to be a much more productive use of their journey to work if they're sitting on the train composing their reports or reading their e-mails. So, I just wondered if that level of increase is sufficient given that we not only wish to see them coming in by train, but we need to see them coming by train for very good public health reasons as well.
Can I thank the Member for her questions? The Member's absolutely right that new technology must be embraced by the operator. It is being embraced, and it's worth just sharing with Members more detail about the repayment system that will be operated. It will be automated, and so any passenger that's delayed by 15 minutes or more will get an automated reimbursement of the ticket fare. That's something that happens in some parts of Europe, and I'm delighted that we'll be introducing that arrangement here in Wales.
I am confident that the additional seat capacity will be sufficient for passengers, and it's worth also pressing home the point that there will be penalties for the operator for anyone who's having to stand for more than 20 minutes. In addition to there being increased capacity in terms of seats, there will also be additional capacity for bikes and other forms of transport taken on trains, including wheelchairs, because of course we need to integrate transport far better, and if you can't take a bike onto a train you're then not going to be able to cycle the short way, that final one mile, as it often is called, to work. There are also some exciting proposals contained within the franchise arrangement for that final mile to work, which I'll be pleased to be able to share with Members in the coming weeks.
Cabinet Secretary, thank you for your statement today. I'd like to place on record my thanks for delivering the extra capacity on the Ebbw Vale line, ensuring that the link will also stop in Newport. This is very welcome for the region and particularly for my constituency in Newport West. It was great to wake up to the South Wales Argus headline this morning saying, 'At last!', which I think sums up what many of us have been waiting for. Newport train station is the second busiest train station in Wales. Linking the Gwent valleys and parts of Newport such as Rogerstone and Rhiwderin to the city centre will help ease congestion on our roads.
It's vitally important that travelling by train is accessible and affordable to young people and I welcome the announcement that concessionary fares have been extended to include 16 to 18-year-olds. So, does the Cabinet Secretary agree that enabling young people to easily and affordably move around the region for education and employment opportunities not only encourages use of public transport but also contributes to the Welsh Government's plan for inclusive growth?
Absolutely; I couldn't agree more. It's a shocking fact that, in some parts of Wales, a fifth of young people can't even get to their job interview because they can't afford the public transport required to get them to their interview. So, the half-price fares scheme for 16 to 18-year-olds will certainly assist in driving inclusive growth across Wales and ensure that more young people are able to get to job interviews and get to and from work.
The Member is absolutely right, Newport is the second busiest station within Wales, and it's going to be important that it, like every other station, receives a good amount of investment to maintain it as a visually pleasing station, but also one that utilises the very latest technology so that passengers are comfortable travelling on reliable services. I'm also pleased that there will be that hourly service between Ebbw Vale and Newport from 2021.
And finally, Darren Millar.
Can I thank you for your statement as well? I'm very pleased that there will be some improvements in rail services in Wales. These have been long overdue in my opinion, as a regular traveller between north and south. I've just got a couple of questions, though.
I know that both you and I have been very keen to see the direct rail link established with Liverpool and that that is going to hopefully be on track in December of this year, which is extremely good news indeed. But one thing that you didn't mention in any of your statements that I could see was a reference to direct rail links to both Liverpool and Manchester airports, which of course are increasingly important as Wales becomes part of this global world economy. So, perhaps you could tell us whether there's going to be an increase in the frequency of journeys to Manchester Airport from north Wales, particularly with the PSO arrangements that you announced that you were investigating and the public service obligation support that you might be able to give to air links to those places.
Secondly, there is a train station that was closed a few decades ago in my own constituency, which I would like to see reopened, and that is the Foryd halt, which serves the area of Towyn and Kinmel Bay. You'll be aware of the huge popularity of Tywyn and Kinmel Bay as a tourist destination, with 60,000 bed spaces on caravan parks there. I believe that it's time to relook at the viability of the Foryd halt as an opportunity for improving green transport in north Wales, and I wonder whether you can tell us whether that is something that you'll be able to discuss with the new operator, given the bonanza in the cash available to improve and invest in new stations.
Just finally, whilst I welcome the extension to concessionary fares for 16 to 18-year-olds, of course it doesn't go as far as the proposals that we put forward in this Chamber some time back for our green card, which would give reduced rail fares to 16 to 25-year-olds, and, indeed, some concessionary bus opportunities as well. I wonder whether you've give any further consideration to those and how they might knit together with this particular scheme.
Can I thank the Member for his questions and for welcoming the procurement arrangements, and for his continued interest in key services in north Wales, including the north Wales to Liverpool service that will operate via the Halton Curve. I'll come to that point in a moment, but, first, I should also say that we are looking at direct north Wales services into Liverpool Lime Street using the Mersey tunnel. Using newly acquired bimodal rolling stock, we'd be able to operate through the Mersey tunnel direct from Wrexham to Liverpool, and not just Wrexham to Bidston. I think that would bring huge benefits to north Wales.
In terms of the north Wales to Liverpool services I'm pleased that, using the Halton Curve, there will be new services provided from north Wales through to Liverpool. The new Liverpool to Llandudno service, for example, in 2022 will be one of those services that uses the new Halton Curve, and as a consequence will be able to operate to Liverpool John Lennon Airport. Likewise, I'm also pleased to be able to share with the Member information concerning the other airport that serves north Wales on the English side of the border, which is Manchester Airport, and there will be new direct daily services from north Wales to Manchester Airport, again in December 2022. I'm also pleased to be able to say to the Member that they will be on brand-new made-in-Wales trains.
I thank the Cabinet Secretary.